u/Unique-Helicopter955

I originally thought CPO was disruptive to this company (partly true due to their selling of pluggable transceivers), but their laser chip production which they are scaling now is primed for growth from CPO demand. InP lasers are the bottleneck after memory and AAOI is one of the few vertically integrated companies preparing for the ramp.

I believe that due to the macroeconomic situation we are dealing with now (inflation way off target, interest rate hikes a real possibility), there’s a lot of volatility coming which can present potentially fruitful opportunities for investors interested in the AI photonics industry.

I apologize for misinforming anyone that believed my post. Nevertheless, AAOI still carries risks. For example, hyoerscalers cutting AI capex would have a direct impact on AAOI. Interest rates mentioned earlier may go higher which is bad for all high beta stocks. AAOI could face delays in production which would push back profitability and result in more dilution.

The pathway for the most developed assets (201 and 401) includes pivotal trials for each. The company had $72m after Q1 2026. Cash runway is into 2027, but does this include the extra spending needed for clinical development? I’m afraid investors may get diluted severely. They plan to have discussions with FDA to get alignment on trial designs by the end of the year.

This company is run by The Column Group (TCG is a life science VC that partners with scientists) and they have created promising cardiovascular assets with Tenaya scientists, validated by a research partnership with Alnylam. But is the thesis here that they would get bought before having to fund the trials? As a sub-$200m business, funding science at this scale becomes prohibitively painful for investors.

I don’t see a reason to buy Tenaya currently due to dilution risk for the pivotal phases. But the opportunity is large and the science is backed by data (so far). There was an issue with 201 where patient 5 (in high dose cohort) was lost to follow up. Only 6 patients in the study and one is a male in a condition that affects mostly men.