Yesterday’s dump down to 3.14 was a classic algo headline panic. If you actually read the 8 pages of PA Executive Order 2026-05, the reality is the exact opposite of retail fear.

The order specifically targets speculative greenfield projects trying to leech power off the public grid. In Section 4b, the state literally directs the DEP to fast-track and remove red tape for brownfield sites that generate their own power. That is literally Panther Creek and Scrubgrass. Gov Shapiro didn't kill data centers, he forced hyperscalers to deal with behind-the-meter operators with their own power. Keel went from an option to one of the only viable routes in PA.

Smart money clearly understood this. CEO Ben bought at 3.33, and COO Liam Wilson dropped 100k of his own money at 3.78 on Monday right before the order dropped. With the Panther Creek DEP hearing tomorrow and BTC squeezing the broader mining and HPC basket, clearing out the stops at 3.14 just set up a massive bear trap.

Valuation Models
Model 1: Sum-of-the-Parts & Cash Floor
With roughly 819M in liquid reserves, the pure cash floor sits around 3.00 a share. At current prices around 3.20, you are essentially paying for cash and getting 2.2GW of power pipeline and high-voltage substations for next to nothing.
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Model 2: EV per Megawatt (Sector Parity)
Looking at comps across the sector (WYFI, CORZ, WULF), active and contracted capacity trades between 1M to 2M per MW.
Putting a conservative 1.2M per MW on just 500MW of near-term capacity (Panther Creek 350MW + Sharon 150MW) = 600M in asset value.
Adding back net cash and dividing by share count puts baseline fair value at 6.50 to 7.50, right in line with Wall Street targets (WSJ avg 6.33, Northland 7.00).
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Model 3: 2–3 Year Contracted EBITDA Multiple
Once 300MW is converted to HPC colocation at an industry standard of 2.0M ARR per MW with 65% EBITDA margins:

Annual EBITDA: 300MW * 2.0M * 65% = 390M/year

Applying a standard 10x to 12x infrastructure multiple gives an Enterprise Value of 3.9B to 4.6B

Target share price: 25.00 to 35.00+ down the road

The math and the regulatory moat speak for themselves. Holding for the real rerating.

Setting aside the micro-modeling for a second, I’ve been thinking a lot about the macro M&A landscape that awaits SELLAS immediately after a successful REGAL Topline readout.

We all know the standard M&A math: a successful Phase 3 in an unmet need (AML CR2) typically commands a $3.5B-$5B base valuation (3x-4x peak revenues). But is it possible that the current macro environment drives a far more aggressive, panic-driven Bidding War that shatters historical precedent?

Here is why I think the macro setup is uniquely explosive:

1. The Impending $100B+ Patent Cliff

Between 2026 and 2030, Big Pharma faces the largest revenue drop in history as mega-blockbusters lose exclusivity (Keytruda, Opdivo, Eliquis, Revlimid remnants, Venclexta down the road).

1.1 - These mega-caps are sitting on massive cash piles, but their pipelines are dangerously thin.

1.2 - They aren't just looking for incremental growth — they are in survival mode to replace tens of billions in expiring annual revenue.

2. $GPS as a Monopolistic, De-risked Asset

2.1 - Zero competition in AML CR2: There is no approved maintenance therapy globally in this setting. Whichever Big Pharma acquires GPS instantly owns a monopoly in this indication.

2.2 - Platform Potential (WT1): WT1 is expressed in 20+ cancer types. If REGAL validates the WT1 peptide vaccine concept in a low-burden remission setting, the buyer isn't just getting an AML drug — they are acquiring a multi-billion dollar immunotherapeutic platform.

3. The Players & Desperation

3.1 - a Gilead: Needs a win in AML/hematology after the $4.9B Magrolimab write-off.

3.2 - BMS: Currently owns Onureg (CR1) and needs to lock up the entire AML spectrum while defending its hematology footprint.

3.3 - AbbVie / Merck / Pfizer: Actively hunting for late-stage, de-risked oncology assets to offset impending LOEs (Loss of Exclusivity).

The Question:

When you have 3 to 4 cash-rich, pipeline-desperate suitors competing for a single, fully de-risked Phase 3 asset with zero competition in CR2 and platform upside — do standard historical M&A multiples even apply anymore?

Could we see bidders skip standard 3x multiples and jump straight into panic-driven 5x–7x multiples ($10B+ / $150+ per share) or a pre-emptive "Godfather offer" before a public tender even begins?