u/WeaknessSingle4337

- He hit this in 7 out of the last 10, even when we filter out the games vs garbage teams and only look for teams in the top 30 by FIFA rankings!
- He had 9 Goals & Assists in those 10 games and now
- Bielsa said he won't sit back in a low block, he is playing for the win, so Yamal could have plenty of space and chances to convert tonight!

Screenshot and research by PropsMadness

The Captain is going to play the full 90 minutes tonight, leading his country to some points vs. Czechia tonight on the opening night of the World Cup!

When he plays 45+ minutes vs teams ranked 20-100 by FIFA, he hit in 7/13 games, with some games with multiple goals/assists.

Czechia is ranked 39th by FIFA and 35th by ELO rating!

DraftKings +353 on Soto Home Run seems a bit too high, considering today's matchup?

→ HR in 9/21 games (42.9% hit rate) when facing RHP starters with HR/9 vs LHB between 3-45 and Avg Exit Velo vs LHB between 2-80 percentile, averaging 0.48 HR/game in those spots (+0.36 over baseline) with a .767 SLG, .394 ISO, and 58.1% HardHit%

→ Canning vs LHB is rock-bottom in nearly every metric: 1st percentile HR/FB%, 2nd Avg EV, 3rd HardHit%, 5th Barrel%, 7th HR rate, 8th ISO, 12th xSLG, 16th xwOBA, 19th BB%, 23rd BA. One of the most exploitable matchups on the board. Petco plays slightly HR-suppressing (-4%) but 8 mph wind blowing out to center helps

→ Soto vs RHP is essentially perfect: 99th xwOBA, 99th xSLG, 98th HR rate, 98th HR/FB%, 98th Barrel%, 97th ISO, 92nd BA, 90th Avg EV, 89th BB%, 88th HardHit%. H2H last 3 seasons is loud: 3 PA, 2 H, 5 TB, 1 HR, 0 K, 0 BB, already tagged Canning for a homer with extra bases.
He also does great against all 3 pitch types Canning throws the most!

Citizens Bank Park plays heavily hitter-friendly (HR +22%, Runs +12%, 1B +2%) with major tailwind for run-scoring environments.

- Over this line in 9/13 games (69.2% hit rate) when getting 2-5 plate appearances against starters with BA vs RHB between 9-60 percentile, averaging 1.0 RBI per game (+0.8 over baseline) with a .600 AVG w/RISP, .628 SLG, and .256 ISO

- Facing Anthony Kay tonight, who is catastrophic vs RHB: 6th percentile xwOBA, 8th K% (can't miss bats), 12th BA, 12th xSLG, 18th HardHit%, 20th Barrel%, 22nd BB%, 24th ISO, 30th HR/FB%, 31st Avg EV. Massive platoon split — he's elite vs LHB (#99 wOBA, BA, WHIP) but bottom-of-league vs righties

- Sosa vs LHP is solid: 85th percentile Avg EV, 83rd HardHit%, 81st xSLG, 78th xwOBA, 78th HR/FB%, 67th ISO, 64th Barrel%, 58th BA. Doesn't strikeout much (47th K%) so he'll put balls in play

- Kay's pitch mix has clear damage paths. Fastball (28% usage) gets demolished broadly (.305 BA, .576 SLG, .425 wOBA against), and Sosa crushes fastballs (.333 BA, .667 SLG, .457 wOBA). Slider (22%) is also hittable (.261 BA, .435 SLG, .375 wOBA against), and Sosa crushes sliders even harder (.500 BA, .500 SLG, .451 wOBA, 85th–95th percentile)

screenshot+research --> Propsmadness

New day, new opportunity (yes yesterday was shitty)

Hit both HRs last night and missed Aranda HRR at -130...

Yesterday was horrid, no lies about it, but we have a new day!

Research by Propsmadness

Research by PropsMadness

Some real interesting spots, check the comments for them!

• Over this line in 20/23 games (87% hit rate) when facing RHP starters with xwOBA vs RHB between 6-75 percentile, averaging 2.7 HRR in those games
• Facing Tobias Myers tonight, who is exploitable vs RHB: 10th percentile BA, 12th OBP, 23rd xwOBA, 27th xSLG, 31st HardHit%, 8th K% — bottom-tier across nearly every damage metric and he can't miss bats against righties
• Lopez hits RHP well this season: 98th percentile BA, 87th OBP, 80th xSLG, 80th K% (low strikeout), 75th HardHit%, 72nd Contact%, 70th xwOBA, 62nd Barrel%
• Myers' Slider (29% usage) gets crushed by RHB: .400 BA, .580 SLG, .420 wOBA against — elite damage when righties square it up
• Fastball (42% usage) also gets contact-hit at .282 BA, .462 SLG, .358 wOBA with only a 9.0% Whiff rate

The entire research was done by Propsmadness.