u/WindowTrue7942

Miami pre-construction condo buyers have a different 2026 problem: lower rates may improve leverage, but they do not automatically make every new launch a good deal.

The underwriting should start with total monthly carry: price, HOA, taxes, insurance, reserve exposure, deposit timing, delivery risk, contract terms, and resale liquidity.

The part I think buyers often miss is the resale comparison. If existing condo inventory is elevated, a resale seller may give you concessions today that a developer will not match on a new building. That does not make pre-construction bad. It just means the premium has to be justified by line, view, building quality, timing, and exit value.

Curious how people here are thinking about new construction versus resale right now: pay for the new product, or use inventory to negotiate harder on something existing?

Ritz-Carlton Residences North Bay Village is an interesting 2026 branded-condo signal: 364 approved residences across two 43-story towers on Harbor Island, with a marina component and bayfront positioning between Miami and Miami Beach.

The part I would watch is not just the brand. Before pricing is public, buyers should be careful with the underwriting: HOA estimates, deposit schedule, contract terms, view corridors, marina access, delivery timing, and resale liquidity if the branded premium is already fully priced in.

Curious how people here think about branded condos in Miami: does the hotel/residence name still add enough resale value, or only when the pricing is disciplined?

For foreign buyers looking at Miami condos, I would not treat a favorable exchange-rate move as a green light by itself. The more useful question is whether the currency advantage survives the full carrying-cost math: HOA, insurance, reserves, assessments, financing terms, and how liquid that building/submarket will be if you need to exit.

Curious how others are thinking about FX risk when buying US property from abroad. Are you pricing the currency advantage up front, or treating it as a separate risk?

A three-story Apogee penthouse in South of Fifth is asking $78M. The part I think is worth discussing is not just the price. It is how much value buyers should assign to private outdoor space in a low-density building.

At this tier, price per interior square foot can miss the point. If the unit has huge terraces, a private rooftop pool, and very few true substitutes in the same pocket, the buyer is partly paying for scarcity.

Would you value a rare terrace-heavy condo differently than a larger indoor unit in a denser building, or does the headline ask still need to pencil on interior square footage first?

A Palm Beach estate at 350 Island Road just traded for $35M all-cash, and the part I find interesting is that the value looks much more tied to the lot than the existing house.

The property has about 0.8 acres and 107 feet of Intracoastal frontage. At that tier, buyers are often underwriting privacy, frontage, lot shape, and rebuild potential more than finishes or current square footage.

Curious how people here think about teardown value in Florida luxury markets. At what point do you stop comping the house and start comping the dirt?

When buyers look at Miami pre-construction, the developer name is usually one of the first things they ask about. I think it matters, but only as a first filter.

A large delivery record can make financing, appraisal confidence, and closing risk easier to understand. It still does not answer the project-specific questions: escrow terms, named partners, delivery timeline, HOA structure, reserve exposure, and what the contract actually says if timing changes.

For a project from a well-known developer, would you treat the name as a major risk reducer, or would you mostly ignore it and focus on the specific deal terms?

Manalapan had a notable ultra-luxury print: an oceanfront estate at 1660 South Ocean Boulevard sold for $70.9M after trading for $38.9M in 2020. I would not read it like a normal housing-market comp. At this level, the value is really address, privacy, lot quality, and irreplaceable oceanfront frontage. Curious how others separate true scarcity comps from headline-grabbing luxury sales when looking at South Florida pricing.

West Palm Beach keeps showing up as a real alternative for buyers who originally started in Miami. The Terra/BH plan on North Flagler is interesting because it is not tiny boutique supply: two 31-story waterfront towers, 281 condos, retail, and a big garage. If you were comparing this to Miami pre-construction, I would look less at the headline price and more at average unit size, walkability, association costs, and how deep the future resale buyer pool is.

Miami-Dade had a pretty interesting May read: total home sales were up 7.9% year over year to 2,064 closings, and the $1M+ tier was up 14.7% year over year. The part I would not ignore is segmentation. A buyer can hear that the broader market is softer and still run into competition in a specific waterfront, new-construction, or luxury segment. Are you seeing the same split between broader inventory and higher-end pockets?

If you are looking at an older Florida condo, I would ask for the SIRS report and reserve funding status before getting too attached to the unit. The view and price matter, but the building file can change the deal. The big questions: has the milestone inspection been completed, was Phase 2 triggered, what repairs are planned, and is the association already discussing a special assessment?

A developer filed a pre-application for a 62-story tower at 237 SW 13th Street near Brickell, according to The Real Deal. The proposal calls for 400 apartments, 400 hotel rooms, and 16,647 square feet of commercial space on a site assembled for $27.6M.

The part worth discussing is how to read this kind of news. A filing does not mean buyers have new inventory to shop. It means a developer is testing whether density, hotel demand, financing, and approvals can line up in that location.

For South Florida real estate watchers, I would treat this as a watchlist signal: if it moves forward, it says something about confidence near Brickell. If it stalls or changes use, that says something too.

Do you think mixed-use rental/hotel towers near Brickell are still the stronger play right now, or do you think condo developers start taking more of these sites again?

If you are looking at an older condo in Florida, I would ask for the milestone inspection status before getting too attached to the unit.

The view and price matter, but the building file can change the deal. I would want to understand:

• Whether the milestone inspection has been completed or is coming up
• What the reserve study says
• Whether there is a known repair plan
• Whether any special assessment risk is already visible

This is not about avoiding every older building. Some still make sense. It is about knowing whether the value is real before you write or remove contingencies.

How are buyers here handling this now? Are listing agents giving these docs upfront, or only after contract?

Alan Faena sold his historic waterfront home at 4731 Pine Tree Drive for $24M off-market, according to the New York Post citing The Real Deal. He reportedly bought it for $10.3M in 2014, so the number is roughly 2.3x over 12 years.

What stood out to me is the inventory signal, not just the celebrity/developer name. This was a 1927 Mediterranean Revival compound with a main house, guest house, just under an acre, and Indian Creek canal frontage. Those are not easy to replace.

For anyone watching South Florida luxury, this is why the trophy waterfront market can feel disconnected from normal listing data. The best homes often trade privately, and by the time a buyer only watches the public portals, they may be seeing a filtered version of the real inventory.

Curious if people here think more Miami Beach waterfront inventory will stay private this year, or if sellers start testing the open market again if rates ease.

Viceroy Brickell closings started, and I think the useful buyer question is not just whether the building is nice. It is whether you prefer a finished condo you can inspect now, or a pre-construction contract nearby where the upside depends on time, delivery, and the final execution.

A completed Brickell unit usually gives you more certainty on finishes, amenities, rental rules, and move-in timing. Pre-construction can still make sense, but buyers should be honest about deposit timeline, financing changes, and what else may deliver before they close.

For people watching Brickell, would you rather pay for finished certainty now or take delivery risk for a newer project later?

Bal Harbour just had a waterfront estate at 56 Bal Bay Drive sell for just shy of $43M, per The Real Deal.

The part I think is useful for market-watching is not just the record price. The seller reportedly bought in 2022 for $15.4M, and the property has the things that are hard to recreate: half-acre lot, 100 feet on the Intracoastal, privacy, and a fully finished renovation.

For anyone looking at South Florida luxury, I would read this as a finished-inventory signal. A dated waterfront house and a turnkey waterfront house are not trading in the same lane anymore. Land and water set the floor, but condition is what can reset the comp.

Curious if others are seeing the same split in Miami Beach/Bal Harbour: are buyers still paying the biggest premiums for turnkey, or are more people going back to land-value plays?

Miami Beach oceanfront condos are one of the places where the broad condo-market headline can be misleading. Finite beachfront supply still matters, but I would not treat every building the same. The real buyer test is the exact view, line, building quality, reserves, insurance exposure, and how deep the resale buyer pool will be later. In this segment, waiting for a blanket discount can be just as risky as chasing the wrong unit.

There is an interesting split in Miami right now. The very top of the condo market is still seeing serious trophy activity, including more $20M+ sales, while the broader condo market has a lot more supply and more buyer leverage.

I think the useful question is not whether "Miami luxury" is hot or cold. It is whether a specific unit has enough scarcity to justify the premium.

For a true trophy condo, I would look at view protection, building quality, floor height, waterfront or branded scarcity, cash-buyer depth, carrying costs, reserve exposure, and whether another buyer would understand the value quickly if you had to resell.

Curious how others are seeing it: do you think Miami's top tier keeps separating, or does broader condo softness eventually pull it down too?

Coconut Grove feels like one of the more interesting Miami submarkets right now because it is not trying to out- Brickell Brickell.

The new-development pipeline is smaller and more neighborhood-driven: Four Seasons Private Residences, THE WELL Coconut Grove, Vita at Grove Isle, Mr. C, plus the existing Grove Isle / bayfront context.

The buyer question I think matters most is not simply “which brand is best?” It is:

Would you rather pay for lower-density scarcity, tree canopy, sailing/bayfront lifestyle, and a full-time neighborhood feel, or do you want Brickell-style convenience, nightlife, and walk-to-office energy?

Also worth watching: delivery timing, deposit schedule, HOA/reserve structure, and how much of the premium is really tied to bayfront access versus branding.

Curious how locals see it: is Coconut Grove’s scarcity worth the premium, or is Brickell still the better long-term liquidity play?

Pompano Beach just printed a $17.1M condo record at Waldorf Astoria Residences.

The part that feels worth discussing is not the brand name, it is the scarcity signal. A buyer reportedly moved from a much lower-floor contract into a top-floor duplex penthouse before delivery, which suggests the best oceanfront inventory in Broward is getting spoken for early.

For anyone shopping new construction, I would be careful about waiting for the building to be closer to completion if the goal is a true penthouse or best-stack view. By that point, the remaining options are often not the same product.

Are you seeing the same thing in other Broward oceanfront buildings, or is this mostly a branded-residence outlier?

The interesting split I am seeing is single-family inventory versus condo inventory. Homes are around 5.7 months of supply, which still feels tight in good neighborhoods. Condos are closer to 13 months, so buyers have more room to question pricing, reserves, assessments, and days on market.

For anyone shopping locally, are you seeing the same gap between house sellers and condo sellers?