From the perspective of the average Midgar citizen, Avalance decisively defeated Shinra in less than a week. Decisively.
After starting Rebirth, I need to update my previous topic (https://www.reddit.com/r/FFVIIRemake/comments/1unqwhb/from_the_perspective_of_the_average_midgar/) to add that, according to the first two minutes of Rebirth (which I'm not considering a spoiler here, 'cause it's, well, literally within the first two minutes of Rebirth), the public also believe Avalanche was responsible for the tornado that destroyed Sectors 0, 1, and 2. And remember that Sector 0 is the Shinra Building itself. So, according to what Shinra wants the people to believe, Avalanche can control the weather and destroy reactors and drop plates at will. They have assassinated the president, wiped out more than half the city, and leveled the capital building. And they did all this in less than a week.
I don't see how the population can make any conclusion other than that Avalanche decisively won this war. Decisively**.** The people would be begging for Shinra to surrender to Wutai at this point. There's no way this PR campaign could ever possibly work. Shinra is hopelessly outmatched and has no chance at victory. At the rate they're going, Shinra will be utterly and totally destroyed within another week, at most.