u/abefrost

Submission statement: this article explores how authoritarian regimes exploit the ambitions of the mediocre and the incompetent to enforce their will. Offering promotions and benefits to the otherwise undeserving acts as an incentive to commit crimes and atrocities.

While large parts of the article discuss authoritarian regimes generally (including the growing power of ICE under DJT in the US), the argument revolves around hard data from Argentina published by two German researchers.

>"Making a Career in Dictatorship", a new book by two German political scientists, Adam Scharpf and Christian Glassel, reads like what you might get if you crossed Hannah Arendt’s ideas about the “banality of evil” with a business school guide on how to get the most out of low performers.

>Their in-depth study of Argentina’s military during that country’s era of coups and forced disappearances found that low performers — whom they refer to as “career-pressured” individuals — filled the ranks of the secret police. That service allowed them to “detour” around the ordinary military hierarchy, the book shows, achieving promotions and career success they could never have managed otherwise.

>It turns out that would-be authoritarians don’t need to staff their regimes with ideological true believers, offer extreme enticements or impose draconian punishments in order to make successful power grabs. They just need to figure out how to target their ideal labor pool: the frustrated and mediocre.

A very good article and if you are able to pick up a copy of the book as well, I'm planning to. "Meal Team Six" is not just a meme, but a measurable phenomenon.

My wife is graduating from grad school in June of 2026. She has over six figures of high interest unsubsidized loans. We already filed our taxes married filing jointly for 2025. She may be able to be eligible for PSLF but definitely eligible for IBR. We would appreciate any and all help with the following questions:

1. Which of the following statements about initial IBR/PSLF payments is true:

• A: Her initial payments will be based on our joint 2025 income (essentially mine because she didn't make $ in 2025).
• B: Her initial payments will be based on her estimated yearly income for 2026, which would only be about four months since she starts work in August (we plan to file MFS). We need to provide paystubs.
• C: Her initial payments will be based on her estimated income for 2027 (we plan to file MFS).
• D: Her initial payments will be based on a combo of the above (if so, _______).
• E: Some secret, fifth answer!

2. After her grace period ends December 2026:

• A: All the interest she accrued from the start of her loans until December 2026 capitalizes.
• B: All the interest she accrued from the start of the grace period until December 2026 capitalizes.
• C: Some secret, third answer!

3. Is it worth it to try and pay the interest so it doesn't capitalize?

• A: Yes, because having a lower principal starting in December 2026 is good!
• B: No, because you'll save more letting it capitalize and only making the monthly payments once they begin (it's getting forgiven after 10-20 years).
• C: Some secret, third answer!

4. Speaking of interest, we are still w/in 120 days of the last disbursement. If we pay now, all that $ goes to the principal and any interest accrued on the $ we pay off is destroyed. Ex not using real #s: if we pay, say $1500, it would effectively erase $1525 (principal + interest accrued on $1500 over the days).

• A: This is not worth it. It's only $25 and it'll be forgiven.
• B: This is worth it. It's more bang for your buck.

5. Let's say we have a kid down the road. We should:

• A: Immediately recertify the payment plan as it will lower.
• B: Not do that.

6. To lower the monthly minimum, we should try and put as much $$$ into her 401K as possible. We should put future kids on her insurance plans. We should put the kids as her dependents when married filing separately.

• A: Do all of those and also _____
• B: Do some of those like ______ but don't do _____.
• C: Do none of those!
• D: Some other secret answer ____

7. If PSLF is not available and we do IBR, we should calculate the tax bomb and:

• A: Start saving up in a HYSA.
• B: Start putting money into safe-ish stocks.
• C: Put the money on black.
• D: Don't worry about it until closer to the 20 years.
• E: Mix of the above or ______.

I suspect the answers are B or E, A, B, A, A, B, E. Let me know how terribly off I am!

We will be providing smiley stickers for a great quiz result (upon loan forgiveness).

EXTRA CREDIT: What important questions are we not thinking of?

Is this actually a valid strategy?

My wife graduates June of 2026 with more than six figures of federal loans. Payments need to start in December of 2026.

Unfortunately I MFJed for 2025 already, so I assume December 2026-December 2027 payments would be based on our 2025 MFJ return (shouldn't be too bad anyway since she didn't have income 2025).

But then we follow this schedule:

April 2027: file MFS for our 2026 taxes.

December 2027: recertify our payments, but now payment is based on wife's 2026 income alone.

April 2028: file MFS for our 2027 taxes.

December 2028: recertify our payments, payment based on wife's 2027 income.

April 2029: file MFS for our 2028 taxes. Submit a 1040X to refile our 2026 return as MFJ.

December 2029: recertify our payments, payment based on wife's 2028 income.

April 2030: file MFS for our 2029 taxes. Submit a 1040X to refile our 2027 return as MFJ.

December 2030: recertify our payments, payment based on wife's 2027 income.

etc etc etc

Most people I've seen when this comes up say "yeah this is valid. You're allowed to refile later to save $, you're supposed to use your most recent tax return for IBR calculations, those are separate actions".

But I've also seen a few that think it's quasi-dubious and I'm not sure if I actually fully wrote it out correctly. Fully ready to eat humble pie if the strategy assumptions or my schedule are just stupid. If it basically works but I should tweak some assumptions or parts of my basic schedule, I appreciate any and all feedback as well!

EDIT - oh yeah one big thing I'm also still confused on is how the FIRST payments are calculated. I've assumed it's based on the 2025 taxes, but she will have a small amount of income the last few months of 2026 and then more in 2027 and I don't know how those get put into the pot.

EDIT 2 - yeah seems like it's not this easy.

Edit 3 - MFS Amendment : r/PSLF. The arguments in this thread by some people advocating for it are also pretty convincing that it is legal. I'm still just confused lol.