u/althius1

We all know sometime George's math can be... flexible. But if we only look at the primary sources, what is the largest single battle in Westerosi history?

As best I can tell, here are the contenders that have the strongest backing in the text.

Field of Fire
Fire and Blood explicitly states King Mern and King Loren fielded a combined host of 55,000 men. Aegon met them with a host of 10,000 men (and, you know, three extra helpers).

Battle of the Trident
Rhaegar marched with 40,000 men. Robert's rebels had about 35,000. This beats the Field of Fire.

Battle of the Blackwater
Stannis assaulted King's Landing with 20,000 men. Tywin arrived with about 20,000 men, and the Tyrell host had Renly's 80,000 footmen, which I think we have to assume most of followed Mace.

Battle of the Redgrass Field
I don't think we know how many men fought here, just the casualties... 10,000 men. With typcial rates from other battles, the actual forces involved must have been staggering.

Are there any other major clashes I’m overlooking? Fishfeed and Tumbleton both seem smaller than any of these, given what we know in the text. Which actually "takes the crown" for the highest number of combatants?

Or does it not matter? Martin is writing fantasy disguised as medieval history. The focus is on the human conflict not the quartermaster's ledger, and we should just go with the flow.

I would argue that Rhaenyra's struggles with power... specifically her time holding King's Landing... is probably one of the most important thematic elements of the Dance of Dragons (alongside the self destruction of the Targaryen dynasty)

George uses Rhaenyra's taking of the capital to strip away the romanticism of conquest and reveal the reality of governance. It ties perfectly into his famous critique of traditional high fantasy: "What was Aragorn's tax policy?"

Her time in the city is the core of the story, because it proves that taking the Iron Throne is meaningless if you don't actually know how to rule. She inherits an empty treasury and is forced to resort to insane taxes just to keep the lights on. It demonstrates a recurring theme we see all over the text of Blood & Fire: wars fought by the elites are paid for by the suffering of the smallfolk.

I also love how George also goes a step further and uses her reign to subvert the "Rightful Heir" trope.

For the first half of the conflict, he sets up a classic fantasy trope. The usurping half-brother in Aegon II, and the wronged, legitimate queen fighting to reclaim her stolen birthright. In standard fantasy, seating the "rightful" monarch magically fixes the realm... the realm flourishes again, and there is much rejoicing.

Instead, George pulls the rug out from under the reader. When she finally takes the Red Keep, she doesn't bring peace or prosperity. She brings the exact same unchecked arrogance and paranoia as her brother... just wearing a different hat (crown).

Would love to hear how you all rank this thematically against the rest of the Dance!

A lot of people seems to treat the Dance as though it was a foregone conclusion... that the minute Viserys died, it was destined to be a bloodbath. But looking at where things stand in Fire and Blood right after the Green Council, it looks to me like Otto Hightower has the Greens in a exceptionally solid position. Am I giving him too much credit, or was did he have the situation locked in until Aemond threw it away?

Right before Storm's End, here is where the Greens stand. They hold: the Capitol, the Red Keep, the entire treasury. They even have the "optics" of legitimacy by having crowned Aegon using the Conqueror's crown. And of course, they have the biggest threat in Westeros, Vhagar, waiting.

Otto's plan looks like he was trying to AVOID a dragon fight. He had locked down the ravens, sent out his envoys, and more or less dared Rhaenyra to strike first.

... And then Aemond goes to Storm's End.

I'm starting to think that killing Luke over Shipbreaker Bay might be the worst blunder of the war. He didn't just partake in a kinslaying (which is bad enough), he gave away the diplomatic advantage Otto had built. The Greens were no longer the peaceful, rightful defenders of the throne. They drew first blood.

Not only that, it forces an escalation. Killing Luke lead directly to Blood and Cheese. That seems to have broken Aegon's resolve, leading him to fire Otto in favor Criston Cole, and his very aggressive tactics. Abandoning King's Landing to strike Harrenhal and letting Rhaenyra take the city.

If Aemond let's Luke leave Storm's End unharmed, and then returns with Baratheon support secured... what does Rhaenyra actually do? She's hunkered down on an island, with no money, and a very fractured set of allies. All the while you've got King's Landing protected by three dragons! (Vhagar, Sunfyre, and Dreamfyre).

How does everyone else read this? Did Aemond's ego dismantle all the advantages Otto had spent so much time and energy to build? Or was the Dance always going to play out as an absolute bloodbath on both sides?

Seems like by the time of A Game of Thrones, the wall is essentially a penal colony... but a few people stand out.

Jon Snow, obviously.
Jeor Mormount did, I think, so that Jorah could inherit his lands.

Who else took the black, because they wanted to, not because they were forced?

Fans generally default to the idea that the birth of Dany’s dragons was the catalyst that amped up the magic across the world. But looking at the exact timeline of events, George leaves it ambiguous (classic GRRM). I'm curious how people read the "chicken and egg" scenario here, because there is textual evidence for a few different possibilities.

The dragons supercharged the magic
This is the standard read, and the strongest evidence comes from A Clash of Kings. Hallyne the Pyromancer tells Tyrion that the spells used in wildfire production are suddenly working much better and faster.

Hallyne explicitly wonders if there are dragons in the world again, directly linking the presence of living dragons to the power of fire magic in Westeros. We get other examples of fire magic being amped up as well.

Magic woke up first, allowing the dragons to hatch
The A Game of Thrones prologue happens months before Dany steps into the pyre. The Others are already active, and resurrecting dead wildlings. The direwolves cross south of the Wall before the dragons hatch.

If ice magic woke up months or years before fire magic, the dragons might be a result of magic waking up across the entire world. That rising magic might be what ultimately allowed Mirri Maz Duur's blood magic and the pyre ritual to succeed where Summerhall failed.

Or is the Comet the trigger for both.
The red comet appears before the dragons hatch, and it is visible across the entire world.

Rather than the dragons causing the magic, or the Others causing the dragons to hatch, it is possible a cosmic event like the comet acted as a catalyst that fueled the dragons, the Others, the wildfire, and the other evidence of magic (like the glass candles) all at once.

To me, the Red Comet "flipping the switch" feels too clean for GRRM. I've always thought it's real function was to demonstrate how different people and cultures view the same event through the lens of their own bias.

Curious how you all map the timeline of these events. Which was the catalyst, and which was the symptom? Am I missing anything obvious?

The conventional wisdom is that Being a Good Hand Gets You Killed. The argument goes that King's Landing is a viper's nest that preys upon honorable or competent men.

But if you look at the history we've been given, that theory tends to fall apart. Being competent isn't immediately fatal. Septon Barth was the most honorable, effective Hand in the history of Westeros. He died peacefully in his bed.

Tywin ran the kingdom almost singlehandedly while his boss slowly (then not slowly) descended into madness... and he made it out alive. He survived twenty years by having the sense to quit when Aerys crossed the line.

It seems the real rule of surviving your time serving in the Red Keep is: If you are going to be good at your job, your management style better match your king's sanity-level.

Browsing through the Maesters' records, I see four different paths for your time as Hand:

Total Synergy: Septon Barth or Baelor Breakspear. Barth died of old age because Jaehaerys I was sane, engaged, and backed him up. Baelor and Daeron the Good were a solid team who successfully navigated the cleanup of Aegon IV's corrupt mess of a court and the aftermath of the First Blackfyre Rebellion (and Baelor only died due to a freak tournament accident, not Red Keep politics). Ned's big mistake was trying to walk this path for a completely checked-out Robert.

Shadow King: Tywin Lannister. Is your King young, weak, or mad? You are going to need to brute-force bureaucracy and employ a healthy dose of intimidation (being the Lord of Casterly Rock helps). With any luck, you'll keep the realm from bleeding out, but be wary. The resentment you build makes it tricky to survive long-term. Know when to cash out your chips.

The Martyr: Tyrion Lannister. Here is what happens when you try to follow the path of the Shadow King without having permanent and/or institutional authority. You can keep the realm from burning to the ground, but if you serve an unhinged King and are only an "Acting Hand" with an expiration date, you're going to get framed as soon as they don't need you anymore.

Hit and Run: Cregan Stark. Get in. Do the job. Execute everyone who needs it. Get out before the rest eat you alive.

We know why the good ones die and how the great ones survive. Who is your favorite hand? Your least favorite? (My vote is Harys Swyft... so incompetent, and yet made it out alive.)

In The World of Ice & Fire, there's an interesting throwaway line in the Yi Ti section about the Long Night. Maester Yandel writes that eventually someone "arose to give courage to the race of men and lead the virtuous into battle with his blazing sword Lightbringer."

But it's the specific list of names he gives that caught my eye:

"...known variously as Hyrkoon the Hero, Azor Ahai, Yin Tar, Neferion, and Eldric Shadowchaser..."

Most of these map perfectly to the geography of the deep East.

Yin Tar is clearly Yi Tish. Hyrkoon maps to the Patrimony of Hyrkoon in the Bone Mountains. Neferion sounds like Nefer, the secret city of N'Ghai. Azor Ahai is from Asshai.

But then there's Eldric Shadowchaser.

"Eldric" sounds a lot like something Westerosi (specifically Andal, like Edric Dayne or Edric Storm). Yet, in the main series, we never hear this name once. When Old Nan talks about the Long Night, she talks about the Last Hero. I can't find any mention of Eldric from the wildlings or the Night's Watch.

To me, this confirms that the Long Night really was a global apocalypse, and every culture basically claimed the "savior" as their own hero. The Citadel translated some ancient First Men myth into the Andal-sounding "Eldric," while the Red Priests branded their version Azor Ahai, etc, etc...

What do you guys think? Is Eldric just a Citadel Maester's invention to make eastern history sound more familiar? Does all this matter to the prophecy of "The Prince That Was Promised"? Why don't we ever hear about "Eldric Shadowchaser" reborn?

If you look at the board at the end of ADWD, it looks to me like the Citadel is about to become ground zero for the endgame.

Let's face it, the maesters basically run Westeros. They control the ravens, the medicine, and the history.

Marwyn tells Sam straight up that the "gray sheep" hate magic and probably helped kill off the last dragons. They want a world built strictly on logic and rules, because that is a world where they hold the real power behind whomever happens to sit upon the throne at any one moment.

GRRM spent five books (and various side works) setting up the Citadel as the ultimate anti-magic club. Now look at what he has set up:

• A Faceless Man (Pate) is already inside with a master key to every locked door
• The glass candles are burning again
• Marwyn just went rogue to find Dany
• Euron Greyjoy, who is basically a walking nightmare of dark magic, is sailing straight for the city

George didn't pack all these magical wildcards into the narrative just so the maesters could sit around reading. The institution that thinks it controls the world is about to get a violent wake-up call when old magic smashes right into their cold logic.

The maesters are being set up for a massive fall... and I can't wait to read it.