"Did Lord Randyll command you to follow me again?"
"He commanded me to stay away from you. Lord Randyll is of the view that you might benefit from a good hard raping."
"Then why would you come with me?"
"Westeros is torn and bleeding, and I do not doubt that even now my sweet sister is binding up the wounds … with salt. Cersei is as gentle as King Maegor, as selfless as Aegon the Unworthy, as wise as Mad Aerys. She never forgets a slight, real or imagined. She takes caution for cowardice and dissent for defiance. And she is greedy. Greedy for power, for honor, for love. Tommen's rule is bolstered by all of the alliances that my lord father built so carefully, but soon enough she will destroy them, every one."
I think about this passage so much in relation to cersei, and tyrion really knows her spot on. Having cerseis affc chapters to contextualize her inner thoughts only reinforces tyrions words to me.
I am sure there was hope for more people to join into supporting Darklyn's cause at some point, which seems to be about taxation and trade rights, but I am not sure it wasn't until Darklyn found himself trapped into a corner that he felt that way. Tywin was instrumental in refusing Lord Darklyn's request, so he might have been hoping that would anger Darklyn enough that he did something stupid. Which he did when he took Aerys hostage. Still, if Darklyn wanted Aerys dead or off the throne, he could have or would have killed him. Instead, he held him captive, which really could only end badly for the Darklyns. This also could have been an impulsive act on the part of Darklyn, one that he found himself stuck with. Time only made the situation worse. And Tywin did tell Aerys not to go to Duskendale, but did he do this is a manner that promoted that Aerys would want to go against Tywin's recommendation? The two men were pretty much on the outs by that point. Certainly there are layers to what happened and what was intended with Duskendale. But from what I read of the situation, I don't think it was intended to be a rebellion, at least on a national level, more of one family/area demanding personal rights.
Those who knew the resolve of Tywin Lannister knew better. Instead, the Hand's heart grew harder, and he sent Duskendale's lord one final demand for surrender. Should he refuse again, Lord Tywin promised, he would take the town by storm and put every man, woman, and child within to the sword. (The tale, oft told, that Lord Tywin sent his bard to deliver the ultimatum, and commanded him to sing "The Rains of Castamere" for Lord Denys and the Lace Serpent is a colorful detail that is, alas, unsupported by the records).
Most of the small council were with the Hand outside Duskendale at this juncture, and several of them argued against Lord Tywin's plan on the grounds that such an attack would almost certainly goad Lord Darklyn into putting King Aerys to death. "He may or he may not," Tywin Lannister reportedly replied, "but if he does, we have a better king right here." Whereupon he raised a hand to indicate Prince Rhaegar.
Scholars have debated ever since as to Lord Tywin's intent. Did he believe Lord Darklyn would back down? Or was he, in truth, willing, and perhaps even eager, to see Aerys die so that Prince Rhaegar might take the Iron Throne?
The freerider, a small man in dented plate without device, duly appeared at the west end of the yard, but of his opponent there was no sign. Finally a chestnut stallion trotted into view in a swirl of crimson and scarlet silks, but Ser Dontos was not on it. The knight appeared a moment later, cursing and staggering, clad in breastplate and plumed helm and nothing else. His legs were pale and skinny, and his manhood flopped about obscenely as he chased after his horse. The watchers roared and shouted insults. Catching his horse by the bridle, Ser Dontos tried to mount, but the animal would not stand still and the knight was so drunk that his bare foot kept missing the stirrup.
By then the crowd was howling with laughter . . . all but the king. Joffrey had a look in his eyes that Sansa remembered well, the same look he'd had at the Great Sept of Baelor the day he pronounced death on Lord Eddard Stark. Finally Ser Dontos the Red gave it up for a bad job, sat down in the dirt, and removed his plumed helm. "I lose," he shouted. "Fetch me some wine."
The king stood. "A cask from the cellars! I'll see him drowned in it."
"Take his horse," Dany commanded Ser Jorah. Viserys gaped at her. He could not believe what he was hearing; nor could Dany quite believe what she was saying. Yet the words came. "Let my brother walk behind us back to the khalasar." Among the Dothraki, the man who does not ride was no man at all, the lowest of the low, without honor or pride. "Let everyone see him as he is."
"No!" Viserys screamed. He turned to Ser Jorah, pleading in the Common Tongue with words the horsemen would not understand. "Hit her, Mormont. Hurt her. Your king commands it. Kill these Dothraki dogs and teach her."
The exile knight looked from Dany to her brother; she barefoot, with dirt between her toes and oil in her hair, he with his silks and steel. Dany could see the decision on his face. "He shall walk, Khaleesi," he said. He took her brother's horse in hand while Dany remounted her silver.
I think the structure and pacing of ASOIAF highly suggests that Daenerys ends the series ruling Westeros.
The biggest clue is that we are already five books into a planned seven book story and Dany still has not crossed the Narrow Sea. That means one of two things is true. Either George plans to rush her conquest unrealistically fast, or her conquest is not actually supposed to be a long grinding war.
I think the answer is obvious. Her conquest will resemble Aegon’s.
By the time Dany finally lands in Westeros, the realm will already be devastated. Civil wars, famine, winter, Euron, collapsing houses, and eventually the Others will leave the Seven Kingdoms shattered. Most lords will not be in a position to resist a dragon queen with three massive dragons.
And I think the dragons HAVE to become massive before the final book really begins. That is why I still believe some form of time skip happens near the end of Winds of Winter.
George originally planned a five year gap for a reason. He realized the dragons, the Stark children, and the political situation all needed more time to develop naturally. Even though he abandoned the formal gap, the problem itself never disappeared.
My guess is that Winds of Winter becomes an extremely dark book. The Wall falls. The Others begin moving south. Huge portions of Westeros are lost. Winter reaches its absolute worst point and the realm basically starts collapsing. Then near the end of the book, there is some kind of jump forward in time, maybe a few years.
That would allow the dragons to become truly enormous and terrifying by the start of A Dream of Spring. And I think that is important because the final book probably takes place at the very beginning of spring itself. Symbolically it makes too much sense. After the darkest winter imaginable, spring finally begins as humanity fights back.
At that point, Dany arriving in Westeros would not feel like another contestant in the game of thrones. She would feel like the only ruler capable of saving what is left of the world.
And that is why I think most of Westeros eventually rallies behind her. Not because everyone suddenly loves Targaryens, but because dragons become humanity’s only real weapon against the Others.
So no, I do not think the series ends with a Stark defeating Daenerys and taking the throne. I think the surviving Stark children end up allied with her by the end. The political conflicts that dominated the early books eventually become secondary to survival itself.
The final war is ice versus fire. And fire wins.
Just for fun I wanted to theorise on what the final POV chapter of ASOIAF would have in it. Let’s say we get winds and dream (yes I know it’s never coming, George winds pls yada yada).
I think that the final chapter just like the first chapter (excluding the prologues and epilogues) will be a Bran chapter. I also think maybe ghost howling for the first time could be one of the final lines in the books. Would love to hear what others think the final chapter could contain :D
It had all been a trap, a game, a jape. Lord Ramsay loved the chase and preferred to hunt two-legged prey. All night they ran through the darkling wood, but as the sun came up the sound of a distant horn came faintly through the trees, and they heard the baying of a pack of hounds. “We should split up,” he told Kyra as the dogs drew closer. “They cannot track us both.” The girl was crazed with fear, though, and refused to leave his side, even when he swore that he would raise a host of ironborn and come back for her if she should be the one they followed.
Within the hour, they were taken. One dog knocked him to the ground, and a second bit Kyra on the leg as she scrambled up a hillside. The rest surrounded them, baying and snarling, snapping at them every time they moved, holding them there until Ramsay Snow rode up with his hunts-men. He was still a bastard then, not yet a Bolton. “There you are,” he said, smiling down at them from the saddle. “You wound me, wandering off like this. Have you grown tired of my hospitality so soon?” That was when Kyra seized a stone and threw it at his head. It missed by a good foot, and Ramsay smiled. “You must be punished.”
Rereading and was reminded that before fleeing to the Vale, Robert Arryn was supposed to be fostered by Tywin Lannister and got a fat laugh
I can’t imagine a funnier odd couple, but it would be even funnier if Robin was the son Tywin always wanted
How do you see that arrangement going?
>Strongboar was the next to depart. He wanted to return to Darry as he’d promised and fight the outlaws. “We rode across half the bloody realm and for what? So you could make Edmure Tully piss his breeches? There’s no song in that. I need a fight. I want the Hound, Jaime. Him, or the marcher lord.”
“The Hound’s head is yours if you can take it,” Jaime said, “but Beric Dondarrion is to be captured alive, so he can be brought back to King’s Landing. A thousand people need to see him
die, or else he won’t stay dead.” Strongboar grumbled at that, but finally agreed. The next day he departed with his squire and men-at-arms, plus Beardless Jon Bettley, who had decided that hunting outlaws was preferable to returning to his famously homely wife.
Strongboar was the next to depart. He wanted to return
to Darry as he’d promised and fight the outlaws. “We rode across
half the bloody realm and for what? So you could make Edmure Tully
piss his breeches? There’s no song in that. I need a fight. I want
the Hound, Jaime. Him, or the marcher lord.”
“The Hound’s head is yours if you can take it,” Jaime said,
“but Beric Dondarrion is to be captured alive, so he can be brought
back to King’s Landing. A thousand people need to see him
die, or else he won’t stay dead.” Strongboar grumbled at
that, but finally agreed. The next day he departed with his squire
and men-at-arms, plus Beardless Jon Bettley, who had decided that
hunting outlaws was preferable to returning to his famously homely
wife.
Sorry if this is a bit of a weird post but I have a confession to make: I've never actually read the ASOIAF books front to back until now. I read them as a teen and would just pick certain storylines and read those chapters back to back. Then I'd go through the book as a re-read and just skip certain POVs that I found boring. Maybe I'm a complete psycho for reading them that way but recently I've been listening to the audiobooks at work which now means that I'm reading them as they were actually intended to be read and it's making me really appreciate GRRM's structure and how he places each chapter.
Another post here recently talked about how ASOS is a short story collection. In some ways that's true and I don't think OP meant it this way but thinking of it in that way misses how GRRM threads ideas or themes throughout the book via how he arranged the chapters.
I mentioned before how Jon's chapter immediately after Bran's escape contains Ygritte telling the story of Bael the Bard which directly foreshadows how Bran escaped by hiding in the crypts but as I'm going through ASOS I found this connection which I never would have come across before but I think is really cool reading Catelyn IV and Davos IV which on the surface have nothing to do with each other.
Catelyn IV is the chapter where Hoster dies and they hold his funeral, and then Robb and co. Negotiate Edmure's marriage to the Freys. They tell Robb about Winterfell being sacked:
>“Ser Rodrik Cassel,” said Catelyn numbly. That dear brave loyal old soul. She could almost see him, tugging on his fierce white whiskers. “What of our other people?”
>“The ironmen put many of them to the sword, I fear.”
>Wordless with rage, Robb slammed a fist down on the table and turned his face away, so the Freys would not see his tears. But his mother saw them.
>The world grows a little darker every day. Catelyn’s thoughts went to Ser Rodrik’s little daughter Beth, to tireless Maester Luwin and cheerful Septon Chayle, Mikken at the forge, Farlen and Palla in the kennels, Old Nan and simple Hodor. Her heart was sick. “Please, not all.”
Obviously with the Starks being positioned as the main characters this really hurts, we've spent a lot of time with these minor characters in Winterfell.
But straight after this chapter is the one where Axel Florent proposes sacking Claw Isle and Stannis makes Davos his Hand for arguing against it:
>“Put his castle to the torch and his people to the sword, I say,” Ser Axell concluded. “Leave Claw Isle a desolation of ash and bone, fit only for carrion crows, so the realm might see the fate of those who bed with Lannisters.”
>Stannis listened to Ser Axell’s recitation in silence, grinding his jaw slowly from side to side. When it was done, he said, “It could be done, I believe. The risk is small. Joffrey has no strength at sea until Lord Redwyne sets sail from the Arbor. The plunder might serve to keep that Lysene pirate Salladhor Saan loyal for a time. By itself Claw Isle is worthless, but its fall would serve notice to Lord Tywin that my cause is not yet done.” The king turned back to Davos. “Speak truly, ser. What do you make of Ser Axell’s proposal?”
>Speak truly, ser. Davos remembered the dark cell he had shared with Lord Alester, remembered Lamprey and Porridge. He thought of the promises that Ser Axell had made on the bridge above the yard. A ship or a shove, what shall it be? But this was Stannis asking. “Your Grace,” he said slowly, “I make it folly … aye, and cowardice.”
Obviously as readers we don't have the same familiarity with Claw Isle or it's people, but by bringing up the sack of Winterfell immediately before this we as readers are primed to understand the emotional weight of killing all these people and just how evil Axell's plan is. These aren't nameless NPCs now, we're reminded they're living breathing people who truly matter to others because we've seen how much the minor characters at Winterfell mattered.
I don't know if this is just me stating the obvious or if anyone else has had similar experiences of catching how GRRM uses seemingly unrelated plotlines to reinforce each other or add new dimensions to the chapters following the one you're reading, or if anyone has their own examples of times they caught this.
The last time Jaime and Rhaegar spoke, Rhaegar said this:
Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but . . . well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."
Those were the last words Rhaegar Targaryen ever spoke to him. Outside the gates an army had assembled, whilst another descended on the Trident. So the Prince of Dragonstone mounted up and donned his tall black helm, and rode forth to his doom.
He says he meant to make changes. Meaning to do something and actually doing steps in order to get it done are two different things. I've been thinking about this specifically around the arrest of Brandon Stark. Did Rhaegar know that happened? Because the time until Rickard gets word and arrives at KL would take over a month. Maybe even two. Why didn't Rhaegar act then?
The tourney at Harrenhal was believed to be an occasion to make plans. What even came out of that? If you really want to, you can get active pretty fast. Daemon Blackfyre had his ducks in a row, Bloodraven found out and things popped off. Robert, Ned and Jon Arryn immediately made moves once they receive the threat from Aerys.
If Rhaegar made no actual moves to set up this coup, how serious was he about it, really?
>Ser Hosteen turned on the fat man. “Close enough to drive a lance through my back, aye. Where are my kin, Manderly? Tell me that. Your guests, who brought your son back to you.”
“His bones, you mean.” Manderly speared a chunk of ham with his dagger. “I recall them well. Rhaegar of the round shoulders, with his glib tongue. Bold Ser Jared, so swift to draw his steel. Symond the spymaster, always clinking coins. They brought home Wendel’s bones. It was Tywin Lannister who returned Wylis to me, safe and whole, as he had promised. A man of his word, Lord Tywin, Seven save his soul.” Lord Wyman popped the meat into his mouth, chewed it noisily, smacked his lips, and said, “The road has many dangers, ser. I gave your brothers guest gifts when we took our leave of White Harbor. We swore we would meet again at the wedding. Many and more bore witness to our parting.”
Ser Hosteen turned on the fat man. “Close enough to
drive a lance through my back, aye. Where are my kin, Manderly? Tell
me that. Your guests, who brought your son back to you.”
“His bones, you mean.” Manderly speared a chunk of ham with his
dagger. “I recall them well. Rhaegar of the round shoulders, with
his glib tongue. Bold Ser Jared, so swift to draw his steel. Symond
the spymaster, always clinking coins. They brought home Wendel’s
bones. It was Tywin Lannister who returned Wylis to me, safe and
whole, as he had promised. A man of his word, Lord Tywin, Seven save
his soul.” Lord Wyman popped the meat into his mouth, chewed it
noisily, smacked his lips, and said, “The road has many dangers,
ser. I gave your brothers guest gifts when we took our leave of
White Harbor. We swore we would meet again at the wedding. Many and
more bore witness to our parting.”
So, I was reading the comments for the post describing the failings of Jon Arryn as Hand of the King, and one phrase in particular caught my eye, in a comment that I otherwise agree with:
>Jon Arryn wasn't even good at being a father. His son Robert (if it's even his own and not cuckolded by Petyr Baelish) is probably drugged and sucks tits at 6 years of age.
While Jon Arryn has undoubtedly failed as a father, the initial fault lies with Hoster Tully. In one of Caitlyn's chapters, her father in his deathbed delirium confuses her with Lysa
>Forgive me. Tansy ... blood ... the blood ... gods be kind ...
In case someone missed it or forgot, Lysa got pregnant from Petyr and tried to persuade her father to allow her to marry him. Hoster Tully, being the Great Lord, was having none of it, and together with his maester and unbeknownst to Lysa fed her moon/tansy tea. She nearly died from the poisoning, according to the wikis. Later, Lysa did figure it out, which is the reason she ignored her father even on his deathbed, without so much as sending a letter.
>... I gave you my maiden's gift. I would have given you a son too, but they murdered him with moon tea, with tansy and mint and wormwood, a spoon of honey and a drop of pennyroyal. It wasn't me, I never knew, I only drank what Father gave me ...
Holy shit, I'm a man, and I doubt I could ever really feel the sheer horror of the situation even with all my empathy. Nevertheless, I have chills just simply re-reading this quote. Poor girl, having a forced abortion in such a brutal and perfidious manner, by her own father no less.
In the (Hoster's) end, Caitlyn figures out just how it came to be that a powerful Lord of the Vale took in a "soiled" younger daughter as his new wife.
>Father, I know what you did. You made him take her. Lysa was the price Jon Arryn had to pay for the swords and spears of House Tully.
So, Jon took Lysa while being persuaded by her father that while the girl may be soiled, but is certainly fertile. What these two dumbfucks decided to ignore was the actual poisoning of a young woman's body.
By the time of this marriage, third in his life, Jon Arryn wasn't that young anymore. There's a medical opinion, seemingly well-proven these days, that a man's reproductive health has its own "clock", just like a woman's, albeit ticking slower (maybe). To but it bluntly, his seed wasn't strong anymore. Combine it with a woman's health ravaged by literally toxic substance, and ... you get the idea.
So, by the time Robert "Sweetrobin" Arryn is born, Lysa has grown deeply traumatized by her overall experiences. Let's fucking round it up:
So, yeah, my take is that poor Sweetrobin never had a fucking chance. He was lucky to be born more or less whole and alive at all, his mother was mentally broken by this point, and his father was preoccupied by trying to rule the damn kingdom while the King whored and drunk himself senseless.
That's not to excuse Jon Arryn, tho', he did botch his fatherhood.
PS. On the topic of Lysa's potential bastard, one with a Westerosi noble man's mindset might ask "Well what the hell Hoster Tully was supposed to do?" My personal answer is "MOTHERFUCKER, ANYTHING instead of poisoning your own daughter". At least let the child be born, ship it off to some decent folks among your vassals. Hell, even your servants, for that matter. Let Lysa visit a child once in a while, I dunno. It's still inhumane by our modern standards, and Lysa would be "besmirched" for all the realm to see. Well, what can you do, shit happens, grandpa, your younger daughter is a fool. Still not an excuse to brutally and treacherously poison her, which, by the way, nearly ended in her death.
Regarding the ned stark, I would make Lyarra Stark, Ned's mother, the granddaughter of Rodrik Stark and a Manderly or the daughter of one, giving another explanation for why the Manderlys are so loyal to the Starks currently, in addition to what happened a thousand years ago.
Among readers of A Song of Ice and Fire, discussion of George R. R. Martin’s historical influences usually begins with England: the Wars of the Roses for the Stark–Lannister struggle, Hadrian’s Wall for the Wall, or medieval dynastic conflicts generally. Martin himself has spoken openly about transforming history into fiction rather than reproducing it directly. Yet some of the most intriguing parallels in Westerosi history may come from a less frequently discussed source: the Carlist Wars of Spain.
While there is no known statement from Martin explicitly identifying the Carlist Wars as inspiration, the similarities are striking enough to suggest at least familiarity with the conflict. In particular, the succession crisis that sparked the First Carlist War bears remarkable resemblance to two of the most important civil conflicts in Targaryen history: the Dance of the Dragons and the Blackfyre rebellions.
The parallels do not rest simply on names or isolated events. Rather, they involve recurring patterns: contested succession laws, struggles between reform and reaction, disputes over female inheritance, charismatic alternative claimants, and defeated dynasties whose descendants repeatedly renew civil war.
The Carlist conflict emerged from a succession crisis within nineteenth-century Spain during the reign of King Ferdinand VII.
At first glance, the dispute appeared straightforward: who should inherit the throne? Yet beneath this legal question lay a deeper ideological struggle over the future of Spain itself.
On one side stood those who supported Ferdinand’s daughter, Isabella II. They increasingly represented liberal and reformist forces seeking a more constitutional and modern political order. On the other stood supporters of Ferdinand’s brother, Don Carlos, who became the focal point for absolutist, traditionalist, and reactionary elements resistant to liberal reform.
The immediate trigger involved succession law. Under the traditional succession system influenced by Salic principles, women could not inherit when male dynasts existed. Ferdinand altered these rules through the Pragmatic Sanction, reopening the possibility of female succession and allowing his daughter Isabella to inherit.
This was not merely a legal technicality. It transformed the political order and created two rival interpretations of legitimacy.
The resulting question would sound familiar to readers of Westeros: Should longstanding tradition prevail, or can the sovereign legitimately alter succession? That dilemma sits at the center of the Dance of the Dragons.
Complicating matters further, Don Carlos possessed characteristics often found in Martin’s rival claimants. Many contemporaries considered him more personally capable and decisive than Ferdinand himself. Importantly, Carlos did not initially engage in open conspiracy. As the presumed heir under traditional succession law, he had little need to.
However, he tolerated and entertained circles around him that increasingly discussed his claim and cultivated support.
That dynamic recalls another Martin pattern: alternative claimants who publicly remain passive while allowing supporters to transform them into political symbols.
The most obvious parallel appears in the origins of the Dance of the Dragons.
The Dance begins when King Viserys I names his daughter Rhaenyra heir despite the deeply rooted Westerosi expectation favoring male succession.
Martin repeatedly emphasizes that this issue concerns not simply one individual woman inheriting but the challenge posed to an entire political culture.
As Fire & Blood notes:
>!“The Iron Throne by rights must pass to His Grace’s eldest son.”!<
This argument ultimately becomes the Green position. The similarities with Spain are difficult to miss. Ferdinand altered established expectations regarding succession in order to secure his daughter’s inheritance. Viserys likewise insists on Rhaenyra’s legitimacy despite resistance from traditionalists.
Even more interesting is the famous “La Granja” episode during Ferdinand’s reign.
When Ferdinand became gravely ill in 1832, factions favoring Carlos reportedly convinced members of the court that the king was dying and pressured him into revoking the decree allowing female succession. Believing death imminent, Ferdinand complied. But then came the twist, he unexpectedly recovered.
Upon regaining strength, Ferdinand reversed the reversal, reinstated the Pragmatic Sanction, and purged ministers associated with the pro-Carlos faction.
You must admit the sequence feels extraordinarily Martin-esque. A king nears death, court factions maneuver behind closed doors. Ambitious supporters exploit uncertainty surrounding succession but the ruler unexpectedly survives.
Punishments and purges follow. This shows a striking resemblance to the political atmosphere surrounding Viserys I, whose declining health turns succession into a shadow war fought in corridors long before actual conflict begins.
Fire & Blood:
>!“Whilst His Grace still lived, no man dared speak openly against Princess Rhaenyra’s rights.”!<
Yet everyone was already choosing sides. Like Ferdinand’s court, Viserys’s realm became divided before the king had even died.
The Carlist parallel may become even more interesting when viewed through the Blackfyre rebellions.
The Blackfyre conflict was never simply about succession. Like the Carlist Wars, it evolved into a struggle over competing visions of the realm.
Daemon Blackfyre himself resembled Martin’s archetypal tragic claimant: handsome, charismatic, martial, admired, and viewed by many as more kingly than the reigning monarch.
As The Sworn Sword tells us:
>!“Daemon was the better man.”!<
Martin repeats this sentiment constantly: not necessarily the lawful king, but perhaps the king people wished they had. Carlos occupied a somewhat similar symbolic role.
Supporters often portrayed him as embodying traditional Spanish virtues in contrast with the political world surrounding Isabella.
Even more interesting is the ideological layering.
The Blackfyre cause gradually attracted opposition to Dornish influence at court. Under Daeron II, integration with Dorne represented political modernization and reconciliation, yet many nobles viewed these developments with suspicion. Anti-Dornish sentiment became one of the emotional engines of Blackfyre support.
As The World of Ice and Fire explains:
“>!Many men believed Daeron loved the Dornish too well.”!<
This begins to resemble the Carlist struggle, liberal reform and constitutionalism increasingly aligned with Isabella. Traditionalist and reactionary factions gravitated toward Carlos.
The issue was never merely bloodline; it became a cultural and ideological battlefield.
Likewise, the Blackfyres transformed from a dynastic dispute into a banner under which broader resentments gathered.
Perhaps the strongest parallel lies in what happened after the initial defeat. The First Carlist War ended in failure yet the movement did not disappear.
Carlos’s descendants continued asserting claims generation after generation, producing multiple Carlist Wars throughout the nineteenth century.
This is remarkably similar to the Blackfyres, the defeat at the Battle of Redgrass Field does not end the movement, instead Daemon’s sons continued the cause.
New invasions follow exiles preserve dynastic memory and civil wars recur.
A political identity survives military collapse.
As Martin writes:
>!“The Blackfyre pretenders troubled the realm for five generations.”!<
That continuity resembles the Carlist pattern almost exactly.
Both movements become dynastic ghosts refusing to disappear.
George R. R. Martin rarely copies history directly. His genius lies in taking historical structures and recombining them.
The Carlist Wars therefore should not be seen as a hidden “answer key” to Westeros. Rather, they may represent one thread among many that Martin wove into the Targaryen story.
Still, the similarities are striking:
- a disputed succession altered to allow female inheritance;
- a king’s near-death crisis exploited by rival factions;
- a charismatic alternative claimant surrounded by supporters;
- ideological divisions beneath dynastic arguments;
reactionary coalitions resisting perceived foreign or reformist influence;
- and descendants who repeatedly renew lost causes.
Whether intentional or subconscious, the Carlist Wars fit Westerosi history surprisingly well.
I know this is an unpopular Opinion and yes I am a Targaryen fanboy. But after reading the books over and over again I can't help but conclude that Jon Arryn is overrated as Hand of the King and here is why:
THE CLAIM OF 15 YEARS OF PEACE:
One of the justifications people put for why Jon Arryn is a good hand is the so called 15 years of peace. The 15 years of peace is not down to Jon Arryn being competent. If anything this man did little to nothing to mend the wounds of the realm. He neglected the historic wrongs that some houses suffered, he allowed tensions to simmer and basically turned his head away. The peace was not down to him being charismatic or Robert being invincible. It was down to his enemies being weak and unprepared. The Targaryens had no dragons, FAegon was still a boy, Dorne just reeled from a war in which they lost most of their fighters. It was not about him. The proof to it is that once the pieces were in place for his enemies to strike he was the first piece of the Baratheon chessboard to fall and everything about House Baratheon collapsed like a deck of cards.
THE ADMINISTRATION OF THE REALM
In all the books read, there is nothing that shows proof of his competence. He renovated no roads, didnt fill the treasury, promulgated no new laws and erected no new structures. Even a commoner like Septon Barth did more to improve the realm than him. If anything it is under him that the crown is bankrupted, corruption festers like a plague, he empowers incompetent and vicious people who scheme against his regime and basically changes nothing from the era of the Mad King other than the name of the dynasty. Basically it is the same rotten system under a different name
THE DORNISH QUESTION
Jon Arryn did nothing to solve the Dornish question. He made a half arsed trip with the bones of Lewyn Martell to speak to the Lords there who accepted peace not out of respect for him but due to the fact that they are too weak to do anything. For 15 years he allows the Dornish grudge against Robert to grow and goes as far as making sure that the histories lie on what happened. He doesn't work to mend the broken ties with them, he gives them no justice and basically allows them to seethe and brood creating a potential base of operation for the Targaryens. Compare that to Tyrion who gives Dorne a seat in the council, arranges a bethrotal and goes as far as promising the heads of Gregor and Amory. Something that the competent Jon couldnt do in 15 years.
THE LANNISTER PROBLEM
Jon Arryn was poor in handling the Lannister problem. He allowed them to fill the court and rewarded them far beyond what they deserved. Eddard was right to demand the expulsion of Jamie from the KG and though it may have not been to the Night's Watch, sending him to Casterly Rock would have gone a long way. He didn't. He rewarded a child murdering house like the Lannisters with a royal marriage and more offices than what they deserve only for him to realise the mistake that he made once he discovers that the children of Robert are all bastards. He allows his adopted son and King to be surrounded by lions who killed him and Robert. He would have lived had it not been for the Lannister Pycelle.
In essence Jon Arryn killed Robert. He is one of the reasons why Robert's reign was so corrupt and inefficient. Eddard couldnt have done much even if he wanted to because Jon had made sure that whoever succeeded him will stand no chance as long as they were non-Lannister. Jon Arryn is overrated. He is not that competent. At best he is a mid hand of the king, at worst he is down there with the likes of Septon Murmison as one of the worst hands of the king.
If so, how?
GRRM has a way of foretelling someone's fate. He foretold the death of Robb in the vision at the House of the Undying. And I believe that Tyrion's cyvasse has already spelled in black and white what Young Griff's fate will be.
Aegon was trying to go to Meereen to get Dany and her dragons in order to sail to Westeros but just like in the game, Tyrion dissuades him from such approach claiming that it would make him look like a bitch. He foolishly listens to the advice and preemptively sails to Westeros. Now unlike the game I think he will find major success at first but somehow will get caught in a quagmire that will require Dragons to help but like in the game, the dragons will be too far away to do anything.
Some have theorised a second dance of the Dragons but I'm of the opinion that it won't happen. His fate is clearly spelled in the game and it will happen as such.
I feel like both Tywin Lannister and Septon Barth probably belong on this list, given how Aerys’ early reign saw much prosperity under Tywin’s management and Jaehaerys is generally considered to be one of the greatest kings of Westeros thanks in large part to Septon Barth’s counsel. But who else belongs here?
Now I saw someone in an asoiaf comment section on reddit (cant remember where exactly) mention that ironborn bastards being named pyke and not salt makes sense, since it is "where they would be collected for sacrifice"
and it got me thinking, "hmm, who would collect sacrifices from the first men?"
the children
it is my opinion that the lord's night was an ancient tradition initially meant to supply plenty of children of noble blood to the children of the forest for sacrifice to the weirwood network, but eventually with the disappearance of the children below the wall post-andal conquest, it simply became a horny tradition for lords to do.
back to my main point, being that the bastard names are where these bastards would be collected, it seems logical to assume that in times of strife perhaps the first men would sacrifice to the children.
them being on pyke links into the legend of nagga, which was probably just a really big weirwood, like whitetree sized. we know that trees probably can grow on the iron islands, but not in dorne which DOES cause some problems with this theory.
so if we look at the names themselves (omitting crownlands as thats post andals and targ conquest):
in dorne sacrificial kids were placed on sand for the children to collect, iron islands they just threw em on pyke, in the north just plain in the middle of snow, the reach perhaps in fields of flowers, in the riverlands placed in the rivers, maybe besides a weirwood cluster, the stormlands in the midst of a storm, in the westerlands just placed on a hill, and perhaps in the vale of arryn the stone they were placed on is some kind of altar?