u/big_data_realty

Coconut Grove, Miami is now a $2M+ market where the house may be the least important part of the deal

Coconut Grove, Miami is now a $2M+ market where the house may be the least important part of the deal

Coconut Grove has officially reached the “formerly bohemian, now bring a spreadsheet and possibly a billionaire friend” stage of Miami real estate.

We just published a 3-part Big Data Realty series on Coconut Grove, and the data is more interesting than the usual “charming village near the bay” description.

Yes, the Grove is beautiful. Yes, it has walkability, restaurants, trees, schools, water access, and that rare Miami feeling that someone planned a neighborhood before inventing valet parking.

But when you run the numbers, the real story gets sharper.

Video 1 - Coconut Grove, Miami: From Bohemian Village to $2M+ Market
https://youtu.be/E6ABLVkR7PA

This one covers the community itself: the village core around Grand Avenue, Main Highway, McFarlane Road, CocoWalk, Metrorail access, the Coconut Grove trolley, parks, schools, safety, and the broader price position.

The key number: Redfin puts the Coconut Grove median sale price at $2.16M, more than 3x Miami’s citywide median of $674K. The single-family median reportedly moved from $995K in 2019 to $2.35M in late 2025. So yes, the Grove did not just get expensive. It got expensive with confidence.

Video 2 - Coconut Grove Property Data: A Land Market With Roofs Attached
https://youtu.be/M5fzzOWE3ls

This is the property-level deep dive.

We looked at 13,022 parcel records, filtered down to 10,372 relevant homes and condos, and the big finding is hard to ignore: for single-family homes, the median land-to-total ratio is 141%.

In plain English, on the typical single-family parcel, the land value signal is larger than the total tax assessment. That sounds strange until you remember Florida’s Save Our Homes cap, long ownership periods, and the fact that in Coconut Grove, the dirt often matters more than the structure sitting on it.

The dataset also shows Coconut Grove is really 2 markets under one name: condos and single-family land. Same neighborhood branding, very different economics.

Video 3 - Coconut Grove Market Update: Discounts, Inventory, and the 2026 Window
https://youtu.be/sMxhSaZTpsw

This one looks at the current transaction record.

The last 3 months show a median single-family sale price of $3.4M, which is 30.8% above where the market finished in 2025. But here is the twist: 83.5% of single-family closings landed below the original asking price, with a 10.8% median discount and about $305K off the typical deal.

So this is not a simple “everything is hot, sellers can ask anything” market. It is more specific than that. Price it right, and the market moves. Overprice it, and Coconut Grove politely lets your listing sit there while everyone pretends not to notice.

That is why we like doing these breakdowns.

Not “Coconut Grove is nice.” Everyone already knows that.

The better questions are:

What are buyers actually paying for?
Is this a house market or a land market?
Where are sellers still holding power?
Where are buyers getting discounts?
Which sub-areas behave differently from the headline numbers?

We genuinely love producing these insights, so tell us what we should analyze next.

Coconut Grove vs Coral Gables?
Key Biscayne?
Pinecrest?
Brickell?
Another South Florida community people keep misunderstanding?

Drop the next community in the comments.

We run the numbers. You make the call.

u/big_data_realty — 23 hours ago

We ran Glen Park through the spreadsheet. It behaved exactly like San Francisco: beautiful, expensive, and mildly unhinged.

Glen Park is one of those San Francisco neighborhoods that looks calm until you open the data.

Village streets, BART access, Glen Canyon, older homes, tight inventory, weird slopes, Prop 13 effects, over-ask bidding, and just enough market contradiction to make a spreadsheet question its life choices.

We just published a 3-part Glen Park series on Big Data Realty:

Video 1 - Glen Park, San Francisco: Community Overview
https://youtu.be/KsoE1pFykkM
Glen Park is not just “cute village plus BART.” The video breaks down the neighborhood’s real structure: Glen Park Village, Glen Canyon, the Bosworth corridor, commute access, schools, safety, and why only 6 sales in March 2026 should not be mistaken for a full market trend. The March 2026 median sale price was about $1.843M, with 34 days on market.

Video 2 - Glen Park Real Estate Composition: What Are Buyers Actually Paying For?
https://youtu.be/ncDxZkbWg2Q
This one goes under the postcard. The dataset covers 2,817 residential records, and the big finding is that on 64.2% of valid assessed-value records, land value exceeds improvement value. Translation: in Glen Park, buyers are often paying heavily for position, land, slope, lot utility, and scarcity - not just the house itself. Median confirmed sale price in the dataset was $1.8M, with median price per building square foot around $1,248.

Video 3 - Glen Park Market Update: More Listings, Fewer Closings, Higher Over-Ask Pressure
https://youtu.be/X4K7x2ZfRDg
This is where Glen Park does the classic San Francisco thing: the market moves in 3 directions at once. From February 18 to May 18, 2026, new listings were up 29.4%, closings were down 22.6%, and yet 81.2% of closings sold above the original asking price. That is not a soft market. That is a selective market with sharp buyer competition for the right homes.

We are having way too much fun producing these neighborhood breakdowns.

Not “is this neighborhood nice?” analysis. More like:
What actually sells?
What does the parcel data show?
Where is the hidden risk?
Is the market softening, tightening, or just pretending to be logical?

If there is another San Francisco or Bay Area community you want us to analyze next, drop it in the comments. We genuinely love producing these insights.

We run the numbers. You make the call.

u/big_data_realty — 2 days ago
▲ 1 r/MiamiRealEstate+1 crossposts

Pinecrest Real Estate: Great Schools, Big Lots, and Big Discounts

We published a 3-part deep dive on Pinecrest real estate. What Miami community should we analyze next?

We just published a three-part video series on Pinecrest real estate, and the data was much more interesting than the usual “great schools, big lots, quiet streets” story.

Pinecrest is obviously one of Miami’s most desirable family and estate-home markets, but once you look under the surface, the market gets much more specific.

In the series, we looked at three different angles:

Part 1: Why Pinecrest keeps attracting family buyers
Pinecrest is built around single-family lots, private yards, school access, and a very different lifestyle from denser parts of Miami. The village sits south of Coral Gables and north of Palmetto Bay, with sub-markets that behave differently: the Old Cutler Estate Corridor, boutique gated enclaves, Core Family Pinecrest near Pinecrest Gardens, the West and US One connectivity zone, and South Pinecrest near the Palmetto Bay edge.

The school story is real, but it has to be checked by address. Palmetto Elementary rates ten out of ten on GreatSchools, while Pinecrest Elementary and Howard Drive Elementary each rate nine out of ten. But Miami-Dade school assignment is boundary-based, so buyers still need to verify the exact school assignment before writing an offer.

Video 1: https://youtu.be/Jlvj-RgIH60

Part 2: Why Pinecrest is really a land market
This was probably the most important part of the analysis. In Pinecrest, the house matters, but the lot often matters more.

We ran the numbers on 5,045 single-family homes. The median lot is 24,524 square feet, and 88% of single-family homes have land assessed higher than the building sitting on it.

That changes how you read the whole market. Pinecrest is not selling a waterfront story. Every single-family record in the dataset is landlocked. The premium is inland: estate land, privacy, setbacks, canopy, school demand, and rebuild optionality.

Video 2: https://youtu.be/1daJQYYZmpc

Part 3: The pricing story sellers cannot ignore
The transaction data was very clear: Pinecrest may be prestigious, but prestige does not cancel negotiation.

In the most recent 3-month window covered in the analysis, 91.3% percent of Pinecrest closings sold below original ask. Across the full dataset, 155 of 164 closed sales sold below original asking price.

Among below-ask sales, the median discount was 9.8% percent, and the median dollar discount was $295,000.

That does not mean the market is collapsing. The recent median price per square foot was actually above the 3-year median. The better read is that Pinecrest is splitting into two markets: fairly priced properties still move, while ambitious listings sit longer, especially in the $5M+ tier.

Video 3: https://youtu.be/Td0Y7gWRobk

What we try to do at Big Data Realty is go beyond surface-level real estate content. We use parcel-level data, transaction history, land value structure, pricing behavior, ownership patterns, school context, and local market positioning to understand what is actually happening.

So here’s the question:

What Miami or South Florida community should we analyze next?

Coral Gables? Coconut Grove? Palmetto Bay? South Miami? Sunny Isles? Bal Harbour? Aventura? Brickell? Key Biscayne? Golden Beach? Somewhere else?

If there is a neighborhood, condo market, waterfront area, or specific community you want us to break down, drop it in the comments. We are happy to create future videos based on viewer requests, especially if there is a market people are curious about but nobody is explaining with real numbers.

Subscribe to the channel to see what we already published and what is coming next:
https://www.youtube.com/@BigDataRealty?sub_confirmation=1

We run the numbers. You make the call.

u/big_data_realty — 4 days ago

Bernal Heights Real Estate: The Closing Surge Nobody Expected

We previously posted about Noe Valley after the May market update, and a few people asked what other San Francisco neighborhoods should get the same kind of data-driven breakdown.

So we just posted the updated Bernal Heights market refresh:

Bernal Heights - San Francisco Market Update: The Closing Surge Nobody Expected
https://youtu.be/AZOwdik6Lec

The short version: Bernal Heights got stronger in a very San Francisco way. Not because more sellers rushed in, but because fewer listings hit the market while more homes actually closed.

The refresh covers March 12th through May 12th, 2026, and the main signal is pretty clear:

  1. Closings accelerated Bernal Heights went from 16.4 closings per month in the trailing 12-month baseline to 21.5 closings per month in the refresh window.
  2. New listings fell At the same time, new listing pace dropped from 16.5 per month to 13.5. So buyers were clearing more inventory while sellers were bringing less fresh supply to the market.
  3. Over-ask activity got even hotter The over-ask rate moved from 76.7% to 88.4%. The median over-ask premium jumped from 14% to 23.2%.
  4. The market split into two lanes Clean, well-positioned listings are moving fast and getting bid up. But relisted, reduced, long-running, or unusual properties are behaving very differently. That is probably the most important takeaway: Bernal Heights is not one simple market right now.
  5. Pricing strategy matters Some homes are still getting aggressive results quickly. Others are showing that if a listing misses the first launch, the penalty can be real.

The full Bernal Heights update is here:

Bernal Heights - San Francisco Market Update: The Closing Surge Nobody Expected
https://youtu.be/AZOwdik6Lec

Previously published Bernal Heights videos:

Bernal Heights - San Francisco Real Estate: Homes Look Cheap Until You See the Land Price
https://youtu.be/RGkGiiHxDGw

Bernal Heights Real Estate: This SF Neighborhood Works Better Than You’d Expect
https://youtu.be/f_zMnacDFy0

The next series we are publishing on the channel is Glen Park.

Also, if there is a neighborhood you want analyzed, just post it in the comments. We are building these videos around actual viewer requests, especially places where the listing narrative and the sales data may be telling two different stories.

Curious what people here are seeing on the ground in Bernal Heights right now.

Does this match what you are seeing at open houses and offer deadlines?

And what neighborhood should we break down after Glen Park?

u/big_data_realty — 4 days ago

We revisited Noe Valley after last month’s wild market data. The update got even louder.

Last month, we put together a small video series on Noe Valley real estate because the market data looked unusually intense: low inventory, busy open houses, short timelines, and a lot of homes selling well over asking.

The original series looked at a few different layers:

1. What the recent sales were showing
Noe Valley was already behaving like a very competitive market, with buyers moving quickly and many homes clearing above list price.

2. Why the neighborhood itself keeps demand strong
The usual Noe Valley ingredients are still there: Twenty-fourth Street, Noe Valley Town Square, strong walkability, transit access, sunnier microclimate, and the “neighborhood inside the city” feel.

3. What the parcel data says
The area is not one clean housing category. Single-family homes, condos, TICs, and small multifamily properties all behave differently. The housing stock is older, lots are compact, and a lot of the value is really about location.

4. Why offer strategy matters
The prior data showed a market where good listings were moving fast, and waiting too long could mean missing the real decision window.

Today, we revisited Noe Valley with a May twenty twenty-six update:

Noe Valley Sellers Missing the Window | May 2026 Update
https://youtu.be/Y0G6BNggnCQ

The update is basically this: Noe Valley did not cool down. If anything, the signals got louder.

The over-ask rate moved higher, the median premium increased, new listings dropped, closings rose, and supply tightened. That combination is what makes the market interesting. It is not just “Noe Valley is expensive.” Everyone already knows that.

The better question is:

Where does leverage actually live right now?

For buyers, it seems to be in preparation, speed, and knowing which listings are worth chasing before the offer deadline arrives.

For sellers, the warning is different: the first launch matters. If a home misses the market and has to relist later, the data suggests the penalty can be real.

Here is the full Noe Valley thread:

Original series:

Noe Valley Housing Market: What the Last 90 Days Really Show
https://youtu.be/CoeLxlX1EKo

Noe Valley SF Real Estate: The Price Gap Nobody’s Talking About
https://youtu.be/X0tOFTY-9qE

Noe Valley real estate market 2026: what’s actually driving prices?
https://youtu.be/CPFhZq4J5bg

Noe Valley Homes Selling 93% Over Asking: How to Score Before Bidding
https://youtu.be/QUpGHu-ErpY

New May update:

Noe Valley Sellers Missing the Window | May 2026 Update
https://youtu.be/Y0G6BNggnCQ

Curious what people here are seeing on the ground. If you have been to open houses in Noe Valley recently, does this match your experience?

Also, what neighborhood should get this kind of breakdown next?

Bernal Heights? Glen Park? Inner Sunset? Pacific Heights? Cow Hollow? Russian Hill? Potrero Hill? Oakland? Marin? Peninsula communities?

Drop a community below. I’m especially interested in places where the listing narrative and the actual sales data may be telling two different stories.

u/big_data_realty — 8 days ago
▲ 3 r/MiamiRealEstate+1 crossposts

We published a 3-part deep dive on Key Biscayne real estate. What Miami community should we analyze next?

We just published a three-part video series on Key Biscayne real estate, and the numbers were more interesting than the usual “beautiful island, luxury homes, beach lifestyle” story.

Key Biscayne is obviously one of Miami’s most desirable second-home and primary-residence markets, but once you look under the surface, the market gets much more specific.

In the series, we looked at three different angles:

Part 1: Why Key Biscayne works as a second-home market
Key Biscayne has one road in, one road out, its own village infrastructure, strong school access, a walkable island core, and a very limited supply of single-family homes. The island also has a serious risk factor buyers cannot ignore: the Village’s own hurricane and flood guide places Key Biscayne in Evacuation Zone A, Miami-Dade’s highest storm-surge risk category. 
Video: https://youtu.be/cYT73eOdf80

Part 2: The land value story behind the lifestyle
This was probably the most important part of the analysis. On the median single-family home, more than eighty-one cents of every value dollar sits in the land, not the structure. Full waterfront homes show an even stronger land-driven profile, with a major premium over landlocked homes. In other words, Key Biscayne is not just selling houses. It is selling scarce island coordinates. 
Video: https://youtu.be/IjIe0vY_Z_o

Part 3: The pricing mistake sellers keep making
The transaction data was very clear: in the most recent ninety-day window covered in the analysis, not one single Key Biscayne single-family home closed above its original asking price. Across the broader dataset, most closed below original ask, and homes that sold below ask took dramatically longer to move. The island is still premium, but buyers are negotiating the terms much harder than the listing photos suggest. 
Video: https://youtu.be/gNXO4-khZbU

What we try to do at Big Data Realty is go beyond the usual surface-level real estate content. We do deep-dive analysis using parcel-level data, transaction history, pricing behavior, land value structure, ownership patterns, and local market context.

So here’s the question:

What Miami or South Florida community should we analyze next?

Coconut Grove? Coral Gables? Pinecrest? Sunny Isles? Bal Harbour? Aventura? Brickell? Somewhere else?

If there is a neighborhood, condo market, waterfront area, or specific community you want us to break down, drop it in the comments. We are happy to create future content based on requests, especially if there is a market people are curious about but nobody is explaining with real numbers.

We run the numbers. You make the call.

u/big_data_realty — 8 days ago