u/boofstar

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Omar Cooper Jr.'s rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps:

8/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (40%)

5/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (25%)

2/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (10%)

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Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 2.18

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 5.33

Median → 8.81

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 13.37

Ceiling → 24.75 (outlier)

Omar Cooper is interesting. It feels like he's getting treated like a major afterthought in this 2026 class, even though he went in the first round of the draft (to the Jets is a bummer, I get it, but still).

His profile has plenty of mediocrity, including his best-season per-route metrics like YPRR and TPRR being nothing to write home about. But there's some stuff that stands out. He's proven to be EXTREMELY elusive, and generated missed tackles at a 96% percentile rate in his final season (among all WRs since 2014).

We also don't want to write off the fact that he played the toughest overall SRS across the entire FBS (essentially measuring composite program strength) with Indiana in 2025 - this has become something that adds the most signal when predicting NFL FPPG over the past couple years.

Overall, he's one of those class back-end-of-the-first WRs that seems to hit about 50% of the time, which checks out with the data (8/20 hit at least one top 24 finish across their careers). He also has legitimate WR1 upside with a quarter of the comps hitting a top-12 finish at some point too.

My *most realistic* upside comp? Brandon Aiyuk with a functional frontal lobe

Not a guy I'm writing off, especially at his current cost!

What do you guys think about Omar Cooper? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far!

I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Jadarian Price's rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps:

10/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (50%)

6/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (30%)

2/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (10%)

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Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 0.88

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 5.41

Median → 11.99

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 13.49

Ceiling → 14.91

While Jadarian Price is far from my *favorite* prospects in the 2026 rookie class, there is no doubt he is one of the most *fascinating* to talk about.

Price's profile is truly unique, and it makes it difficult to evaluate. In the three years he played at Notre Dame (redshirted his first year) he RARELY touched the ball...but when he did, it was almost always explosive. His advanced rushing metrics indicate he can break anything off for a big gain and he is not entirely dependent on an effective OL - he can create for himself.

That's pretty much where the good stuff ends lol. When it comes to receiving involvement (obviously one of the most crucial aspects of being an impactful fantasy RB), Jadarian Price scores GENERATIONALLY poor. He averaged only 5 receptions per season, and his avg. depth of target across his career was literally negative. Both of these are in the bottom 10% of ALL runningbacks going back to 2014.

This skillset, along with being drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, puts Price in an intriguing spot. He'll probably receive a majority of the carries in SEA (at least until Charbonnet returns from injury) but how valuable even is that role from a fantasy football perspective? I'm personally proceeding with caution with a profile like this, and would temper upside expectations.

What do you guys think about Jadarian Price? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far!

I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about KC Concepcion’s rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps:

12/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (60%)

8/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (40%)

5/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (20%)

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Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 3.6

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 7.1

Median → 10.7

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 13.9

Ceiling → 24.8

Concepcion is my favorite pick in 2026 rookie class at cost. He comes in with some of the most impressive prospect comps of any WR in the class - right up there with Tate, Tyson and Lemon - and even better in some areas than each of them.

Obviously the big question is...how does his landing spot impact this range of outcomes? At face value, the Browns are might not seem like ideal place for a WR to land...but I'm actually pretty intrigued. Jeudy has been extremely underwhelming recently, and Tillman/Bond/etc aren't anything crazy to beat out. Concepcion should have the chance to take on a significant role (albeit in a mediocre offense) right away.

What do you guys think about KC Concepcion? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far!

I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Makai Lemon's rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps:

11/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (55%)

7/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (35%)

3/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (15%)

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Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 3.66

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 6.62

Median → 9.11

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 12.56

Ceiling → 24.75

Full transparency - I was not expecting to like Makai Lemon as much as this data shows. I think there are concerns about his slot-heavy, low ADoT role translating to fantasy success at the NFL level. We've seen guys with similar roles/archetypes like Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore (RIP) struggle to make a significant impact in fantasy. On the flip side, there are guys like JSN and Waddle that were able to expand their roles at the next level and become super impactful. The range of outcomes we're seeing in the data definitely soothes some of my concern for Lemon on this front - 35% shot to hit a WR1 finish at some point in his career...not a bad bet!

I'm still hesitant to fully buy in for this upcoming season...the Eagles are fresh off a 26th finish in team pass rate in 2025, Devonta Smith is a dominant target earner in his own right, and there are plenty of other ancillary pieces in the offense that will continue to be involved in the receiving game even without AJB's presence.

That being said...the data suggests he is a legit WR prospect, and should realistically be in the same tier as Tate and Tyson from a talent perspective.

What do you guys think about Makai Lemon? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far!

I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Kenyon Sadiq's rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps:

14/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (70%)

6/20 hit 1+ Top 6 FPPG finish (30%)

2/20 hit 1+ Top 3 FPPG finish (10%)

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Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 2.64

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 4.35

Median → 6.72

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 9.31

Ceiling → 13.99

Sadiq is quite a tough evaluation at the TE position. He's an early declare, ridiculously athletic, played at a super strong collegiate program - but was never a major focal point in the receiving game. He didn't earn targets downfield (albeit he wasn't really asked to), instead he mainly worked in the short-area receiving game and created yards after the catch using that freakish athleticism.

It's an interesting profile in dynasty, and I do think he could blossom into a mainstay as one of the backend-TE1s on a yearly basis, but it's hard to envision MAJOR upside given his offensive situation and receiving role we saw at Oregon. Not a guy I'd be targeting in 2026 redraft leagues (unless we see his role evolving and looking promising over the first few weeks, then he'll be an intriguing waiver add).

What do you guys think about Kenyon Sadiq? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far!

I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙

I did my master’s in data science thesis on machine learning modeling for fantasy football - here’s what the data says about Jordyn Tyson's rookie outlook and beyond, given his year 1 statistical comps:

11/20 hit 1+ Top 24 FPPG finish (55%)

5/20 hit 1+ Top 12 FPPG finish (25%)

2/20 hit 1+ Top 5 FPPG finish (10%)

__________________________________

Rookie Season FPPG distribution specifically (PPR):

Floor → 2.05

Q1 (25th % outcome) → 6.60

Median → 8.60

Q3 (75th % outcome)→ 12.68

Ceiling → 24.75

While Carnell Tate is my WR1 in the 2026 class, I can definitely see the case for Jordyn Tyson at that spot. Their profiles are both quite good for different reasons. While Tate was an early declare with a reasonably solid production profile at a top-tier program, Tyson was a four-year player with a STELLAR production profile at a weak program. He ranks near the top of the class (and 80th+ percentile among all WRs in my model) in YPRR, team receiving yard mkt share, and a bunch of other advanced metrics.

The big question is...can he adapt to NFL-level competition after spending the past four years playing against future State Farm agents? This is always my biggest holdup with players coming from lower-strength programs, regardless how the production profile looks. That being said, it's been done before by similar level prospects and I believe Tyson can do it again.

I also really, really like Tyson's fit in New Orleans. I don't think Kellen Moore gets enough credit as an offensive mastermind, and I was sneakily impressed with Tyler Shough's improvement over the back half of last season. I think the Saints could be poised to have a pretty awesome offensive breakout this season with the Olave/Tyson tandem!

What do you guys think about Jordyn Tyson? Make sure to check out the video above for all my thoughts along with the full list of rookie comps, and check out the full 2026 Rookie Series on my channel for all the guys I've covered so far!

I also recently finished a series breaking down the data on the 2025 class going into year 2, you can check out that full series as well here if you're interested. 🤙