Perfumery is art. I tried to treat it like engineering.

I got into perfumery a while back. My thinking was: how hard can it be? I just mix things that smell good, so there's no way the result smells bad. Couldn't have been more wrong.

I ordered around 100 raw materials and figured that was it. A couple of weeks of trial and error and I'd have something at the level of my favorite, d'Ombre Leather.

I got overwhelmed fast. The materials smelled nothing like the descriptions on the supplier sites. Musks all kind of smell the same. Does hedione even have a smell? 2-methyl pyrazine smells straight-up awful.

So, like every newbie, I turned to ChatGPT. The AI must know how to make a decent perfume, right? Wrong again. Overdose after overdose, getting more and more desperate. I'd spent 600 euros on materials I had no clue how to use.

Being an engineer, I figured there had to be a more analytical way to crack this. Turns out there's real physical stuff sitting under the art: vapor pressure, logP, typical usage ranges, odor impact, how much of a material actually survives dilution versus how much you dosed it at. Once I started thinking about a formula as perceived weight instead of raw percentages on a page, "why does this smell off?" stopped being a mystery and became something I could check before I ever smelled it.

That rabbit hole got deep enough that I ended up building a little tool for myself to track all of it: material data, dilution math, substitutions, that kind of thing. It's turned into a proper side project (AccordLab, if anyone's curious)

Still very much learning, but treating it like a system instead of a mood has made the biggest difference by far.

So how did other self-taught people here get past this stage? Trial and error until it clicked, or did anyone else end up building their own way of tracking all this?

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u/bsks056 — 10 days ago

I built an FPL model, made a team that follows its picks exactly, and I'm letting it run all season here's the squad for the next 4 GWs

Solo dev here. I built an xP model for FPL, I've set up a real team that follows its recommendations exactly. Season-long experiment to see if the model actually holds up.

This is the squad it picks as optimal for the next four gameweeks.

Gabriel as captain surprised me most. I'll keep posting how the model-team does over the season.

Tool's free, no login. If anyone wants to poke at it 👉 fplcentral.co.uk

Edit: Turns out I was running the wrong version of the model when I posted this a weaker fallback formula instead of the properly trained one. Some of the odd picks (Haaland missing, Gabriel as captain) were symptoms of that. Fixed now.

Added a live accuracy tracker so predictions vs. actual results are public and checkable going forward: https://fplcentral.co.uk/model-accuracy

The best-squad tool also lets you tweak it yourself now switch formations or toggle between the model's pure picks, a differentials-tilted squad, or a template/safe one, and it re-solves live: https://fplcentral.co.uk/tools/best-squad

u/bsks056 — 25 days ago