u/cardeez

He’ll be ready offensively by next season, but the two-way dream is dead. This also complicates his defense to begin the season, probably relegated to DH.

Blaine’s sophomore season was somewhere between Blake Burke and Christian Moore’s. Tons of potential. Hopefully he can rebound well.

I believe this would pave the way for Reese Chapman to play for Tennessee

I gave Elander a B- for the season, but he gets an A+ for the offseason so far. I'll explain why below

Hiring Austin Knight

• Letting go of Reynolds cost us Nic Abraham, maybe Tracey, maybe a few more. But hiring Austin Knight was an absolute grand slam so far. Firstly, his body of work speaks for itself. But beyond that, it sounds like he is a monster on the recruiting trail, and the portal haul speaks for itself.

Winning the MLB Draft

• I don't know how much of this is on NIL, MLB teams, or Elander just being a dog, but we went into the draft prepared to lose up to 13 or 14 guys. That ended up just being 5. We have 7 top 100 players coming to campus, more than any other team in the country.

In my biased opinion, we won the transfer portal

• I don't know the exact hit rate for transfer commitments, but I imagine it was quite high. Except for one or two, I think we got every kid we went after.
• From what I've been able to gather, Tony recruited off vibes and personality (and was obviously incredible at it). It sounds like Elander was much more detailed and communicated more efficiently with transfer targets.
• There's also no other way to say it: we're obviously rich in NIL, relatively speaking.

Roster Breakdown

Pitching - it's obvious that we prioritized experience. We basically had four arms last year, and that was remedied (though I do worry about arm health). You need to eat 27 innings over the weekend, and we have 8-10 guys who seem experienced and capable. Detmers, McCoy, Trosclair have all started; Estes and Haas were big time arms that dealt with injuries.

• Starting Pitching
  • Landon Mack
  • Cam Appenzeller
  • Third Spot up for grabs: Will Haas, Jackson Estes, Brody Trosclair, Jake McCoy, Parker Detmers, Ethan Baiotto
• Bullpen
  • Ricky Ojeda was UC Irvine's go to guy in a pinch
  • Chandler Day was a priority to keep
  • Hayden Simmerson was good at Clemson and had MLB interest
  • Can Austin Knight turn Brady Frederick into Tyler Rogers?
  • Freshman wildcards: Shawn Sullivan is a power guy, Gannon Grant can spin it. Gary Morse is a little more raw, but any of those guys may click.
  • Two-way questions: Braydon Kersey finished games for Mercer, Blaine Brown is pitching in the Cape, and Cole Koeninger was a highly rated two-way.

Position Players

• Catcher
  • Have to imagine Grindlinger and Clark were promised reps as it is their draft years. Stone will play some, I'm sure. Sean Dunlap made it to campus.
• First Base
  • Feels like Blake Grimmer is the likeliest option here. Kersey maybe, Clark/Stone/Grindlinger if they aren't catching?
• Second Base
  • Air Force transfer Wyatt Hanoian is the penciled-in starter. Freshman all-American, switch hitter, had a .498 OBP.
  • FIU transfer Mario Trivella, Tyler Myatt, freshman Jack Dugan
• Third Base
  • Baylor transfer Travis Sanders played SS, but would make a lot of sense here.
  • Grimmer, Koeninger, Kersey, Myatt could get looks here
• Shortstop
  • Chris Ramirez, Cal Baptist transfer, was the WAC player of the year and defensive player of the year. Toolsy player, can hit for contact, run like the wind, defend well.
  • Koeninger, Wood, Dugan, Trivella are all depth pieces
• Outfield
  • Blaine Brown is going to be somewhere, and with an offseason of work, he could break out in a big way. Wright State transfer Andrew Duncan is favored at CF. Dunlap, AJ Curry, Kersey, Myatt, Jaxson Wood are all potential fits at a corner outfield spot.

Year after year, you don't want to turn over 75% of your roster. But consider this stat:

• Outgoing transfers in 2026: 549 Plate Appearances, 116 hits, 95 runs, 17 homers, .731 OPS.
• Incoming transfers in 2026: 1,512 Plate Appearances, 444 hits, 308 runs, 64 homers, 1.040 OPS

I counted our six most productive outgoing versus the six incoming. Caveats abound, but one thing is for sure: we've got experience. We banked hard on the potential of the sophomore class last year, and it just wasn't there. 2027's group will be older, more experienced, and more proven.

The final grade for this offseason will be determined by what happens next spring, but in July, I'm calling it this way: we upgraded at every position.

Today is one of my favorite and least favorite days of the year. The MLB Draft is incredibly unpredictable. We could lose over half the signing class and transfers or we could come out looking like Dolly.

Rounds 1-4 are today at 1 PM ET (across NBC, MLB Network, and MLB.com). Rounds 5-20 are tomorrow, beginning at 11:30 ET. I'll update this thread throughout the day. Fingers crossed that we get a few to Knoxville.

Player	Position	Status	Draft Selection
Henry Ford	3B	VFL
Tegan Kuhns	RHP	VFL	CBA-32 STL
Bo Rhudy	RHP	VFL
Garrett Wright	UTL	VFL
Brandon Arvidson	LHP	VFL
Evan Blanco	LHP	VFL
Reese Chapman	RF	VFL
Jake McCoy	LHP	Transfer
Ricky Ojeda	RHP	Transfer
Hayden Simmerson	RHP	Transfer
Andrew Duncan	CF	Transfer
Travis Sanders	3B	Transfer
Mario Trivella	SS	Transfer
Parker Detmers	RHP	Transfer
Trevor Condon	OF	Signee	1-13 STL
Jared Grindlinger	TWP	Signee	1-12 LAA
Cole Koeninger	TWP	Signee
Kaiden McCarthy	RHP	Signee	2-48 ATL
Gannon Grant	RHP	Signee
Tyler Putnam	RHP	Signee
Sean Dunlap	C	Signee
Gary Morse	RHP	Signee
Shawn Sullivan	RHP	Signee
AJ Curry	1B	Signee
Jack Dugan	SS	Signee
Cody Boshell	1B	Signee
Jaxson Wood	SS	Signee
Cade Allen	RHP	Signee
Cooper Shrum	RHP	Signee
Michael Teasley	TWP	Signee
Colt Springall	MIF	Signee
Drew Christine	LHP	Signee

A few things to note before I give my specific thoughts

• The MLB Draft is decidedly different than other major sports. It's not about what round or pick number someone is; it's about the player's asking price.
• MLB uses a bonus pool system. Every pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a specific dollar or slot value. The sum of a team's slot values creates their total bonus pool.
• The catch is that the team can assign the bonus money however they want. They can cheap out on a player in the first round to offer a bigger bonus to another player later in the draft.
• If a player taken in the top 10 rounds doesn't sign, his selection's value gets subtracted from his team's pool
• Therefore, high schoolers have a lot of leverage, draft-eligible college sophomores and juniors have some, and a player out of NCAA eligibility has none.
• Because of this, almost all draft selections in the first ten rounds sign their contracts. It is worked out in advance. Players taken in the first ten rounds sign 99% of the time.
• Rounds 11-20 are wild. There is no slot value, and money saved in the first ten rounds can be leveraged to meet a player's asking price. There are usually surprises in rounds 11-14 or so (Jared Dickey was coming back to Tennessee in 2023 until the Royals offered him his asking price).
• The kicker this year is that the NCAA passed the 5-for-5 rule, granting players another year of eligibility. This affects someone like Andrew Duncan, a Wright State transfer to Tennessee, entering his fourth season of college ball.
• While this is good news for the players and fans of college ball, the uncertainty surrounding the labor dispute between MLB and the players' association adds pressure. Duncan has leverage this season, but what if the draft shrinks considerably by next summer?
• The league just submitted its first proposal to shrink the draft to 12 rounds and abolish high school draftees.
• Because of this, there is heightened pressure on players whose timelines are drastically impacted by a looming MLB lockout.

With all of that being said, the draft is extremely hush-hush, and the only real way to know any of this is if you know the players' families, agents, and every MLB team's interest. It is very inexact, but I've offered my best guesses. I generally lean towards "if a player gets drafted, he's gone." The last 5 drafts have pretty much proven that, with just a few exceptions. I'm happy to be wrong in those cases.

Player	Pos	Status	Percent Chance He Plays For Tennessee
Trevor Condon	OF	Signee	0%
Jared Grindlinger	LHP	Signee	0.10%
Cole Koeninger	SS	Signee	15%
Kaiden McCarthy	RHP	Signee	25%
Gannon Grant	RHP	Signee	35%
Tyler Putnam	RHP	Signee	35%
Sean Dunlap	C	Signee	40%
Gary Morse	RHP	Signee	40%
Shawn Sullivan	RHP	Signee	49%
Jake McCoy	LHP	Transfer	49%
Travis Sanders	3B	Transfer	50%
Andrew Duncan	CF	Transfer	50%
AJ Curry	1B	Signee	51%
Jack Dugan	SS	Signee	51%
Ricky Ojeda	LHP	Transfer	51%
Cody Boshell	1B	Signee	60%
Jaxson Wood	SS	Signee	60%
Parker Detmers	RHP	Transfer	70%
Cade Allen	RHP	Signee	80%
Cooper Shrum	RHP	Signee	80%
Michael Teasley	3B	Signee	80%
Colt Springall	2B	Signee	80%
Drew Christine	LHP	Signee	80%
Kai Bratton	RHP	Signee	80%

The Tennessee staff is smart; they know what they're working with. If you take returning players, transfers in, and the number of players >50% above, that's 32 players. There is a high chance that a player less than 50% above makes it in. I'm just going off combine buzz and overall chatter.

TL;DR I think Tennessee is about to get hammered in the draft, but that's okay because the strategy moving forward is to get a few high-impact freshmen (Appy, Grindlinger, Clark) and backfill the roster with transfer portal additions. The days of a guy sitting for a season are mostly over.

Player	Position	Status	Notes
Cam Appenzeller	LHP	Back for 2027
Ethan Baiotto	RHP	Back for 2027
Blaine Brown	OF/LHP	Back for 2027
Levi Clark	1B/C	Back for 2027
Chandler Day	LHP	Back for 2027
Jackson Estes	LHP	Back for 2027
Trent Grindlinger	C	Back for 2027
Will Haas	LHP	Back for 2027
Stone Lawless	C	Back for 2027
Landon Mack	RHP	Back for 2027
Tyler Myatt	UTL	Back for 2027
Henry Ford	3B	MLB Draft
Blake Grimmer	UTL	MLB Draft
Tegan Kuhns	RHP	MLB Draft
Bo Rhudy	RHP	MLB Draft
Garrett Wright	C/CF	MLB Draft
Brandon Arvidson	LHP	Out of Eligibility
Evan Blanco	LHP	Out of Eligibility
Reese Chapman	RF	Out of Eligibility
Mark Hindy	LHP	Out of Eligibility
Nic Abraham	RHP	Transfer Out
Finley Bates	2B	Transfer Out
Ari Bethea	RHP	Transfer Out
Hutson Chance	OF	Transfer Out
Nate Eisfelder	OF	Transfer Out
Hunter High	UTL	Transfer Out
Manny Marin	SS	Transfer Out
Chris Newstrom	UTL	Transfer Out
Ariel Antigua	SS/2B	Transfer Out - Arizona
Brayden Krenzel	RHP	Transfer Out - Arkansas
Ethan Moore	2B	Transfer Out - Missouri
Jay Abernathy	CF/2B	Transfer Out - Oklahoma
Sawyer Deering	LHP	Transfer Out - SDSU
Taylor Tracey	LHP/OF	Transfer Out - TCU
Evan Hankins	1B	Transfer Out - VT
Cash Williams	C	Transfer Out - West Virginia
Jax Bishop	RHP	Unknown
Brady Frederick	RHP	Unknown
DJ McDowell	RHP	Unknown
Wyatt Hanoian	2B	Transfer In - Air Force	2026 Mountain West Freshman of the Year
Parker Detmers*	RHP	Transfer In - Louisville	Draft-eligible; missed 2026 with Tommy John
Braydon Kersey	RHP/1B	Transfer In - Mercer	John Olerud Two-Way Finalist, 1st Team All-SoCon
Brody Trosclair	LHP	Transfer In - Northwestern State	2026 Southland Conference Freshman of the Year
Jake McCoy*	LHP	Transfer In - South Carolina	Draft-eligible; missed 2026 with Tommy John
Ricky Ojeda*	LHP	Transfer In - UC-Irvine	2025 Big West Pitcher of the Year; draft-eligible