u/cavaliercam13

I’ve gone through Melbourne’s remaining ladder scenarios and tried to make the final fortnight as simple as possible.

The short version: two wins guarantee a top-six finish and wildcard-weekend bye. From there, results involving Hawthorn, Brisbane and Adelaide determine whether Melbourne finishes third, fourth, fifth or sixth.

I’ve also broken down what happens if the Demons go 1–1 or 0–2, plus the five Round 23 games that matter most.

Full breakdown: https://medium.com/@camburt13/run-home-difficulty-index-6-0-the-ladders-complicated-melbourne-s-task-isn-t-ac06b068ec86

I went back through the numbers for every premier from 2016–25 to see whether Melbourne’s current profile is genuinely capable of winning the flag.

Every recent premier ranked inside the top six for points against and inside-50 differential. The available turnover and transition data reveals another remarkably consistent pattern.

Melbourne passes only two of the five tests.

The interesting part is that the Demons have now beaten Fremantle, Brisbane and Hawthorn (x2) without fixing their defensive profile. Their attack, intercepting and post-clearance work may be powerful enough to compensate, but history says it would be an unusual way to win four or five consecutive finals.

Full breakdown, methodology and comparison with the other contenders:

https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-can-break-games-open-but-to-win-a-flag-they-have-to-break-the-blueprint-0eb300e48537

I’ve more than happily gone back through the replay and match data from what was comfortably Melbourne’s best win of the season.

The clearance result is what was particularly interesting for me. Fremantle won that count 43–32, but Melbourne dominated the football after the initial stoppage, winning post-clearance contested possessions 94–60 and post-clearance ground balls 62–38.

I’ve also looked at Tholstrup’s role on Murphy Reid, career games from Sharp and Laurie, Petty’s final quarter and King’s comments about why expected score ultimately means nothing if you don’t win the game in front of you.

As always, keen to hear what everyone else noticed.

https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-found-another-answer-every-time-fremantle-asked-five-things-i-noticed-against-the-bf77018ab648

I went through the season numbers and the matchup is more encouraging for Melbourne than the ladder might suggest.

The Demons rank first for contested-possession and centre-clearance differential across their past 10 games. Fremantle has actually lost the clearance count during that period.

The problem is that the Dockers rank first for what happens afterwards: post-clearance value, expected-score differential and scoring shots per inside 50.

I’ve also looked at the likely defensive matchups, how Turner’s return could free up Lever and what North’s win over the Bulldogs means for the top-six race.

My prediction is Fremantle by seven, but this feels like a genuine test rather than the free hit Adrian and I spoke about on the DeeBrief the other night.

Full preview: https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-can-match-fremantle-but-cant-afford-to-blink-demons-vs-dockers-preview-dd588733fbd4

I’ve finally had the chance to go through the numbers from Sunday.

Gold Coast won the inside-50 count 58–55, spent 53.4 per cent of the game in its forward half and finished with the better expected score. Melbourne also trailed by 17 points during the third quarter.

The Demons still found a way, largely through their ball use, finishing and the influence of Max Gawn after the tap.

I’ve also looked at Fitzgerald and Sparrow’s midfield roles, the growing number of forward options and what the win means ahead of Fremantle.

Full piece:

https://medium.com/@camburt13/it-wasnt-melbourne-s-best-but-it-might-have-been-their-most-mature-five-things-i-noticed-against-47ad909f87c4

Suck eggs, Trac.

The matchup should suit Melbourne. Gold Coast ranks 16th for forward-half time across the past five games, while the Demons rank second for contested-possession differential.

The concern is what happens when Melbourne turns it over. Geelong scored 101 points from Demons turnovers last week, and Gold Coast still has enough good ball users to punish the same mistakes.

I’ve looked at the territory battle, the likely defensive matchups, Gawn v Moyle and what Salem’s return could mean.

My tip is Melbourne by 13, although I’m just classic Demons supporter pessimistically dreading this game.

Full preview:

https://medium.com/@camburt13/gold-coast-vs-melbourne-preview-the-demons-should-own-the-territory-if-they-stop-giving-it-back-b37969fd63f3

What worries everyone more: Tom McDonald on Ben King or Melbourne’s turnover game?

We've got a juicy run home, all starting with Judas on the GCoast this weekend. I take a look at the run home around the league and what it could mean for the Dees here.

https://medium.com/@camburt13/run-home-difficulty-index-4-0-melbournes-margin-for-error-is-almost-gone-0d8f93c3d248?postPublishedType=initial

Where does everyone else have us finishing at the moment?

Spent the week diving into Melbourne vs Geelong from a tactical perspective.

A few things that stood out:

• The teams average virtually identical scores, inside 50s and shots.
• Melbourne has become the AFL's No.1 contest side over the past month.
• Geelong is still one of the league's best intercept teams.
• Why Daniel Turner's absence could be just as significant as Max Holmes'.

Would love to hear if you agree with the prediction.

https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-vs-geelong-preview-the-game-within-the-game-8bf746626201

I wrote up a "Five Things I Noticed" after rewatching the game.

The biggest takeaway for me was that Melbourne actually won in almost the opposite way I expected heading into the match.

Some of the things I looked at:

• the centre-clearance turnaround after quarter time
• why Jefferson and van Rooyen looked so promising together
• Tom Sparrow's career-best game
• how Melbourne won despite losing the inside 50 count
• the impact of losing Turner and Jiath

Interested to hear whether others saw the game the same way.

https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-was-beaten-for-volume-but-won-through-quality-five-things-i-noticed-against-north-25be097fc946

Rather than looking at ladder position, I wanted to dig into how these sides actually play.

Some interesting numbers:

• Melbourne is No.1 over the last 10 rounds for centre-clearance differential (+3.7)

• North is 18th in that same span (-2.9)

• Melbourne averages 60 inside 50s over the last five games (2nd)

• North averages just 47.8 (16th)

Yet...

• North leads the AFL in disposal efficiency.

• They're one of the best teams at retaining the ball inside 50 and converting entries into scoring chances.

So the question becomes: can Melbourne's ability to generate territory outweigh North's efficiency?

Full preview here if anyone's interested:

https://medium.com/@camburt13/melbourne-vs-north-melbourne-preview-demon-pressure-meets-norths-precision-e1810170b2e9