u/charles_crushtoost

Hello! First time posting on here :) I've been personally interested in economics and investing for a while now but never took any formal classes or courses--mostly just reading business news and economics lectures on YouTube. I am about as far from an expert as you can be, and all I really hope to do right now is to make a lot of mistakes and learn, because honestly, fascinating lang talaga para sa akin yung mga topics na ito.

I made this business-cycle infographic / mental framework for myself (first pic) based on the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock (succeeding pics) to clarify some macroeconomic ideas and concepts na medyo confusing pa rin para sa akin. I am not yet well versed in the mathematical details of financial analysis, and cannot provide exact forecasts of growth, yields, interest rates, dividends, cpi inflation, etc, but I hope to get there eventually. Right now, I am more focused in learning foundational concepts and general causes-and-effects in the local economy and financial sector. I would appreciate any constructive or educational feedback! Kailangan talaga ng bansa natin ng mas malawak na diskusyon at partisipasyon sa economics and investing.

Basically, these are the premises on which the arguments and analyses of the infographic are built. Please tell me wherever an assertion or line of reasoning is wrong, so we can all hopefully learn!

• typically, the economy can be in four different states (with no clear boundaries) with regard to inflation and interest rates (set by the BSP): low inflation with low interest rates (most ideal), high inflation with low interest rates, high inflation with high interest rates (least ideal), and low inflation with high interest rates.
  • When inflation or interest rates increase or decrease, the economy travels between these "quadrants".
  • The attractiveness / unattractiveness of equities (and the kinds of equities) and bonds (and tenor of bonds, whether from government or large, creditworthy corporations) depends on which quadrant the economy currently is, as well as where it is headed. i.e:
• if interest rates are expected to go higher, move away from equities and into short-term debt / money markets. Conversely, if interest rates are expected to go lower, move away from money markets and into equities and long-term debt. 
  • Go into financial equities when you expect interest rates to go up, go into property equities when you expect interest rates to go down.
• if general consumption is expected to weaken due to high inflation and interest rates, move into equities with more pricing power (infrastructure, utilities, natural monopolies with more inelastic demand). If general consumption is expected to strengthen, move into equities more exposed to this increased consumption (retailers i.e. SM)
• Broadly, macropudentialism is entrenched in PH government policy circles
  • Historically, there is a strong bias toward fiscal and monetary austerity (coveted “A” credit rating, single mandate of BSP vs dual mandate of Fed; Claudio, 2025). This is supported by data showing that inflation in the PH is mainly caused by local and international supply shocks (food 2018, fuel 2026, supply chains 2021, Fed policy rates) (IMF, 2024; Punongbayan, 2025), and only slightly from loose fiscal or monetary policy
  • Climate change (typhoons, El Nino), geopolitical fractures, and a chronic lack of investment in local supply resilience mean supply shocks will be more frequent
  • Implication: Supply-shocks, and their ensuing episodes of high inflation will be more commonplace. And even though inflation is supply-driven, the BSP will often fold to pressure to tighten policy quickly and significantly, as well as loosen policy slowly. Therefore, an environment of high inflation and high interest-rates will be the norm going forward (3rd quadrant).

These are the premises that led to the arguments and analyses in the infographic. My main question right now is on the types of equities (say, broadly defined by PSEi indices: holdings, property, industrials, oil & mining, financials, and services), and the environments in which a given type of equity is more or less attractive.

Thanks in advance for the education!

Quote around the 1:01:30 mark

Always found it strange that, if inflation is "too much money spent chasing too few goods," Neoliberals/Monetarists (who hyperfocus on the "too much money" part and prescribe deregulation, privatization, tax-cuts, and monetary/fiscal austerity as a roundabout way to indirectly incentivize private investment/production and have growth with low and stable inflation) are regarded as "supply-side economists," when Keynesians in the 1940s (New Deal, WW2) and Post-Keynesians/MMTers today who directly focus on the "too few goods" part—increasing actual real resources through targeted and direct government investment (i.e. Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science act) as a means to grow the economy while keeping inflation in check—are clearly more deserving of being called "supply-side economists."

It sucks that "supply-side" has become a pejorative after being co-opted by neoliberals and their failed policies.