Is sub 4 doable at Chicago for a first marathon?
Here's where my fitness is at
Hey all. Running Chicago on 10/11, my first marathon. Local, so I get to sleep in my own bed, which feels reassuring.
About me: Started running about a year ago. Came into this training block around a 2:00 half in decent weather. On a Runna plan, currently week 11 of 19. Four runs a week plus lifting 4-5 days, mileage in the low 30s (miles) at the moment, peaking in the low 40s later in the block.
Current fitness: All my training since June has been in Chicago swamp air, so I honestly can't tell what's fitness and what's weather. Recent long runs with marathon pace blocks in them:
Jul 19: 12 mi with a 5 mi MP block at 8:49, avg HR 159, dew point 61
Jul 26: 14 mi with a 6 mi MP block at 8:48, avg HR 165, dew point 71
Aug 9: 15 mi with a 7 mi MP block at 8:42, avg HR 164, dew point mid 60s, finished strong
HRs are from the MP block portions
Still to come: 16, 17, 19, and 21 mile long runs, plus a half marathon distance long run in a couple weeks that should give me a better fitness check.
Runna has my marathon pace at 8:40 which feels ambitious off a 2:00 half, so I'm not chasing that. But sub 4 is the goal I want. That's about 9:05-9:10 pace, and my MP blocks are already faster than that in bad conditions.
So, is sub 4 realistic here, or am I flattering myself because the blocks are only 5-7 miles? For anyone who trained through a humid summer and raced a cool (knock on wood) October marathon, how much time actually came back on race day? Any Chicago specific advice welcome too.
Thanks. Trying not to be the guy who learns about the wall in real time in front of my entire city.