u/chillyking23

Hyungwoo Shin won Victory Road to San Francisco with Blastoise + Delphox, the last big event before Worlds.

I spent a while going through it, and I wanted to understand what it is actually doing rather than just looking at the spreads on paper. These are my notes. Corrections welcome, especially from anyone who has piloted it.

How it wins

Obviously three Pokemon can set up: Shell Smash on Blastoise, Nasty Plot on Delphox, Swords Dance on Kingambit. Double Fake Out from Incineroar and Sneasler plus Rage Powder from Sinistcha buy the turn and pull the attacks that were meant for the attacker.

The kind of "unsaid" rule is: whichever one you set up needs at least three knockouts. The first one trades three for one, then whatever is left, usually Kingambit late or one of the support Pokemon, takes the last one.

The part that took me longest to accept is that you do not always have to click the setup move. Fake Out into Water Spout at full HP already does huge damage, Kowtow Cleave hurts without a boost, and Helping Hand from Incineroar covers the rest.

The other half of it is that the team forces 50-50s. Even a prepared opponent ends up guessing on a turn, and the pilot has the same job in reverse: knowing when to attack, when to Protect, when to switch and when to stay in. It is a reading team more than a linear one, which probably explains why the same six get very different results depending on who is holding them.

Leads and mega choice

Lead a Fake Out user with a setup Pokemon. Sneasler if you want offensive pressure, since it also hits hard on its own. Incineroar if the opponent is physical, Garchomp and Aerodactyl especially, because you get Intimidate and can Parting Shot out into what you actually want. That pivot seems to be the standard play into Charizard teams.

For the mega, the question is which one the opponent has fewer resistances to. Delphox into Floette and Charizard, Blastoise into rain. Leading Kingambit with a Fake Out user also works when the opponent has few answers to Dark damage: set up, take early knockouts, bring the mega afterwards to clean.

Where the versions differ

Compared to the rank 1 ladder version, the changes are small and always in the same places.

• Psychic or Psyshock on Delphox. Psyshock hits Floette and Charizard harder, Psychic is better into Garchomp. Most tournament versions right now are Psychic.
• Life Orb or Black Glasses on Kingambit.
• Sinistcha's berry. Colbur for Dark moves, which includes the opposing Kingambit, Occa for Fire, Kasib for Ghost. Those three are what people run.
• Incineroar's fourth move. Helping Hand here, but a Dark STAB or Throat Chop are both reasonable.
• Sneasler. This one runs Unburden with Dire Claw. The ladder version runs Poison Touch with Poison Jab, which stacks poison chances and wears down bulky Floette.
• Delphox nature. Timid here, Modest on the ladder version. Modest gets more one hit knockouts after Nasty Plot, Timid keeps up with the faster Pokemon in the format.

Quick Guard is doing a lot of work

Sneasler runs Quick Guard instead of Protect. Delphox is very weak to Sucker Punch, so blocking a Sucker Punch aimed at it is always good, and it also stops the opposing Fake Outs. The cost is that Sneasler has no Protect of its own.

What beats it

• Dark types against Delphox. Incineroar and Tyranitar, immune to the Psychic move and not bothered much by Heat Wave.
• Rock Slide from Mega Aerodactyl or Excadrill, for damage and for flinches.
• Water and Grass types against Blastoise: Rotom Wash, Mega Venusaur.
• Wide Guard, which stops Water Spout being spammed.
• Late game priority, Sucker Punch and Aqua Jet, and Focus Sash Basculegion.
• Priority block from Farigiraf, Tailwind to cancel Shell Smash, Trick Room to neutralise Delphox.

On the spreads

The OTS is public spreads are hidden, so every spread going around is somebody's reconstruction. Worth keeping in mind before treating any number as the real one.

A few Speed benchmarks I worked out for this archetype:

• Delphox 29 speed points to hit 201.  The tier you are trying to beat is 200, which is where Mega Gengar, Mega Raichu Y, Jolteon and non mega Aerodactyl all land at full investment. Going to the full 32 gets you 204 and beats nothing extra, so three points are free to go elsewhere. This is also the argument for Timid over Modest: past that tier, Delphox is only losing to Mega Aerodactyl and Mega Alakazam at 222, which no amount of investment fixes.
• Blastoise needs 14 points to be relevant after Shell Smash. Base 78 with a neutral Speed nature is 98, so a Blastoise with nothing in Speed is 196 after the boost, still under that same 200 tier. 13 points ties Mega Aerodactyl at 222, 14 gets you 224 and past it.
• Incineroar at 23 points sits at 103, one above an Adamant max Speed Kingambit at 102, so Fake Out into Flare Blitz removes it before it moves. This is the one benchmark I have seen quoted for the archetype rather than calculated.

Things I am still unsure about

• Psychic or Psyshock.
• Colbur, Occa or Kasib on Sinistcha.
• Unburden or Poison Touch on Sneasler.

Let me know your thoughts guys, especially if you have played it or against it. I still need to give it a try.