+EV (Positive Expected Value) betting is one of the ONLY ways to become a long-term profitable sports bettor.
There are many different devigging methods, but in this thread, I'll be covering the three that I use the most...
•𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲
•𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿
•𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲
𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱:
The vig is distributed evenly across all outcomes, meaning that outcomes with higher implied probabilities (lower odds) incur more vig.
This approach is widely adopted because of its mathematical straightforwardness and is seen as the conventional way to remove the vig.
However, this method can be problematic since it doesn't consider the common behavior of bettors, including sharps, who tend to overbet on long-shots and underbet on favorites.
𝗔𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱:
The vig is evenly allocated across all outcomes.
Although this accounts for the tendency to overbet on long-shots, it can occasionally amplify this bias, leading to negative probabilities for underdogs.
𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱:
This method is an extension of both the additive and multiplicative methods and involves raising the probabilities to a constant power.
Beneficial because it always maintains probabilities within the 0 to 1 range, avoiding feasibility issues present in other devigging methods.
However, it can overcompensate for betting biases, adjusting long-shot probabilities more than Shin, while adjusting middle-range outcomes less than Shin.
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗧𝗼 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗘𝗩:
The formula for calculating Expected Value is straightforward: multiply the probability of winning by the potential winnings per bet and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet:
(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
To compute the expected value for sports betting, you can use the following steps:
- Determine the decimal odds for each outcome (win, lose, draw).
- Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal odds and then subtracting the stake.
- Calculate the probability of each outcome by dividing 1 by the odds.
- Plug this information into the formula above.
𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗼 𝗬𝗼𝘂 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗱 +𝗘𝗩 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝘀?
I use the OddsJam +EV tool. This tool tracks all sportsbooks (global and local) and finds these opportunities for you as seen below ⬇️
Here is my Pikkit where I track all of my +EV betting results.
Remember, there will be highs and lows with +EV betting. This isn't a get rich quick style of betting, there will be peaks and valleys along the way but ultimately, this is the best way to become a profitable sports bettor!