u/da_ninjafuzz

Hi everyone! Magic number updates have been keeping me tied up but with the Valkyrie’s win over the Chicago Sky on August 12th they officially finished up the 3rd quarter of the season and with now well under way in their final stretch run it seemed like a good time to rock another report card.

As some of you might already have read, I’ve been keeping the spreadsheet that I used to make my Quarter Mark Report Card and Report Card At The Half and updating it as we go through the season to help give us both some perspective on how the Valkyries are doing as well as let us compare it to the only other season we have on record for them.

So just like last time, lets start with the high level record stats for the season so far (as of 8/12):

• Record: 24-9
• Home Record: 14-4
• Road Record: 10-5
• Current Standings: 2nd out of 15
• Win Percentage: .727

As a quick recap, the first quarter of the season saw a successful .545 win percentage that was a step up from last year and the second quarter saw a wildly successful .818 win percentage as part of a 9-2 record during that stretch. So how did the team do over this 11 game span?

I was actually so impressed with the record in the 2nd quarter I got a little fearful and expected some regression might kick in, seems the Valkyries took that as a bit of a challenge as they again ran through the third quarter with a 9-2 record and a .818 win percentage. The third quarter also comprised parts of a 9 game and 6 game winning streak with just two back to back losses in the middle. The losses weren’t against the two top teams in the league this time, but one was against a scrappy Mystics team with plenty to prove on their way to the playoffs and the “never say die (for right or wrong)” Mercury who can surprise teams on any given night. All in all, we walked away this quarter knowing that this team was for real.

I continued to use the standing of the teams at the end of each 11 game stretch to calculate a crude strength of schedule average. The current 11 game stretch ended with a pedestrian 10 for strength of schedule. This confirmed what I thought last time, when the Valkyries play a bunch of teams and beat almost all of them they artificially suppressed their strength of schedule by influencing the measurement. As a side note this is why I am not entirely sure I want to see the Valks playing the Dream in the playoffs, it’s tough to tell if we caught them at the low point in their season or if we caused the low point in their season, but not a question you want to answer with a playoff series on the line.

At this point it’s getting a little silly to keep comparing to last season since we have all the data on this season but the information is still there on the spreadsheet for those of you with curious minds. What I do want to drill into is that the team is consistently winning games by large margins now with a total season points margin of 219 as opposed to last years 49 point margin. We only saw three games that were “close” (within 6 points) and the Valkyries only lost one of those to the Mercury by two points. Overall their scoring was back up to where it was in the first quarter of this year with 952 points scored. Defense was as consistent as ever.

So what is the summary? Last time I answered this question I said “we really couldn’t have asked for a better 11 game stretch” and they decided to run it back and deliver another pretty much numerically identical stretch of play. I’ve said it above, but with this kind of consistency, this team is for real.

So rather than being a moron this time around trying to get smart and time the market, lets just run the numbers and see that the season win percentage of .727 after 33 games extrapolates out a final record of 32-12.

Given that I’m a little late on this, we've already seen a win against the Wings and loss against the Lynx to bring the record to 25-10. With only two teams left in the playoff picture, a rematch against the Lynx and a final game against the Liberty-biberty, the Valks have a pretty soft road in front of them assuming they keep their focus. Honestly 32-12 feels very achievable and just to put that in perspective the Lynx finished with 34 wins last season and the Aces and Dream with a matching 30 wins. Again, this team is for real.

Putting that in plain English no surprises at this point but here is how the teams have broken out:

• The Elite - The Lynx, that’s it, it’s the Lynx
• The Haves - We’ve pretty much known the playoff field for weeks now we’re just waiting on the mathematical certainty and see where the Valkyries land in relation to the Fever, Aces, Dream, Mystics, Liberty and Wings
• The Have-Nots - We already know the Storm, Sun, and Temp are out and the Sparks and Mercury are right behind them. The Sky and Fire are starting at a team 5-6 games above them for a spot. We know this group is pretty much done, not that I am not rooting for a little drama to make things interesting

Last time I said the Valkyries had a chance to set the tone with the 3rd quarter and boy did they ever. Now they’ve got a great opportunity to finish strong and even rest some key names a bit more and give the “stay ready” crew some reps so they can be called on in the post season if needed. 

So what do we want out of playoff positioning? Realistically at this point we’re hoping for the Lynx to run away with 1st so we can watch the Valks park it in 2nd. This would get the Valkyries on opposite sides of the bracket (2, 3, 6, 7) from the Lynx (1, 4, 5, 8) and if that happens can hope that the Aces end up in either 4th or 5th. Given that the Aces have lost some games they didn’t have to and only have 6 games left in front of them as opposed to the Valkyries 9 games left the odds aren’t crazy that could happen and setup a gate that only the Aces or Lynx could make it past in the 2nd round. Let’s just hope Nat keeps the ship steady and by the end of September we’ll probably be pretty happy with the state of the world.

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From the highs of a playoff clincher against the Wings to the lows of playing the Lynx. Le sigh.

While last night was a tough game to watch playing against our temporarily unbeatable nemeses, it is important to remember that we did indeed see some good results this week that both clinched and helped out the Valkyrie’s cause so let’s not dwell on it too much.

Focusing on the movement to playoff clarity, we saw the Fever win up to a game and a half behind the Valks and both the Aces and Liberty-biberty drop a game each to keep the field behind the Valkyries crowded. So let's dive into the numbers!   

Current Standings through 8/19:

• Current Valkyries Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Highest Possible Playoff Seed: 1st
• Highest Possible Seed without Help: 2nd
• Current Lowest Possible Playoff Seed: 8th
• Games Remaining: 9

Current Magic Numbers through 8/19: 

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 8
• 3 Seed: 7
• 4 Seed: 7
• 5 Seed: 6
• 6 Seed: 4
• 7 Seed: 3
• 8 Seed: 0 (lowest possible finish)

Notes:

• With the ticket to the dance punched, we now get to watch the Valkyries shore things up for optimal seeding position. At the moment the Valks have a 3% chance to finish 1st, a 69% chance to finish second, a 21% chance to finish 3rd, and the rest tailing off from 4th to 8th. Take percentages like these with a grain of salt as they move very quickly, case and point prior to last night’s game we saw a 16% to finish first.
• There are only two games left in the Valks entire schedule that are against playoff teams making them especially impactful on the standings. One is against the Lynx and the other is against the Liberty-biberty. Arguably the Liberty-biberty game is the most valuable remaining game on the schedule from a standings perspective as they are sitting three games back on the Valks. 
• The Tempo have been eliminated ending their own inaugural season playoff dreams
• Next up on elimination watch is the Sparks with a losing magic number of 2 before they officially bow out of the playoffs
• Next in line to clinch their spot in the playoffs is the Fever with a magic number of 1 and behind them the Liberty-biberty and Dream, both with a magic number of 3
• The Fire are still in 9th place, 5 wins back from the Wings in 8th
• We saw the Lynx take the tie breaker over the Valks and we’ll see the tie breaker against the Sky settled on Friday. We’re pretty close to all the tie breakers being decided and honestly it’s hard to say the Valks didn’t get an A on the assignment. Current playoff teams in bold:
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA, MIN
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN
• 8/26 - GSV @ CON
• 8/27 - GSV @ LIB-BIB
• 8/30 - GSV @ PDX

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/18/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

Good things seem to happen when the Valkyries play (and beat) the Wings right? Happy post clinch day! The Valks games last night was the only matchup in the W, but it certainly changed up the numbers a bit, so let’s look at them before tonight's slate of four games and the two games tomorrow.   

Current Standings through 8/17:

• Current Valkyries Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Highest Possible Playoff Seed: 1st
• Highest Possible Seed without Help: 2nd
• Current Lowest Possible Playoff Seed: 8th

Current Magic Numbers through 8/17: 

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 8
• 3 Seed: 8
• 4 Seed: 7
• 5 Seed: 6
• 6 Seed: 5
• 7 Seed: 3
• 8 Seed: 0 (lowest possible finish)

Notes:

• With the ticket to the dance punched, we now get to watch the Valkyries shore things up for optimal seeding position. At the moment the Valks have a 16% chance to finish 1st, a 53% chance to finish second, a 26% chance to finish 3rd, and the rest tailing off from 4th to 8th. Take percentages like these with a grain of salt, they made things look real rosy last year until we saw the team go on a skid to end the season and they rapidly turned against them.
• There are only three games left in the Valks entire schedule that are against playoff teams making them especially impactful on the standings. Two of them are against the Lynx and would help shorten their significant lead on everyone. The remaining game is against the Liberty-biberty who are sitting three games back on the Valks, arguably it is the most valuable remaining game from a standings perspective. 
• Next up on elimination watch is the Tempo with a losing magic number of 2 before they officially bow out of the playoffs
• Next in line to clinch their spot in the playoffs is the Fever with a magic number of 2 and behind them the Liberty-biberty with 3
• The Fire are still in 9th place, 5 wins back from the Wings in 8th
• No new tiebreakers, that said the important tie breakers are pretty much decided (current playoff teams in bold):
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV 
• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN
• 8/26 - GSV @ CON
• 8/27 - GSV @ LIB-BIB

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/17/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

Four days since our last check-in and we’re… right where we left off?

You likely recall that the Valks magic number to clinch the playoffs is down to 1 and that either a Valkyries win or a loss by the Fire would clinch. Despite the Fire playing twice this weekend we saw them go undefeated meaning that the Valkyries next chance to clinch is at home in Ballhalla against the Wings (...why does that sound familiar? 😉)

So everything is the same right? No new news here right? Not at all, while the clinch was put off this weekend, we did see a lot of movement going on in the standings and some losses that helped out the cause. Let’s dive in shall we?

Current Standings through 8/16:

• Current Valkyries Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 1
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers through 8/16: 

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 9
• 3 Seed: 9
• 4 Seed: 8
• 5 Seed: 7
• 6 Seed: 6
• 7 Seed: 5
• 8 Seed: 1

(note: had to do these by hand so may update them if I find errors)

Notes:

• As we’ve covered above the Valkyries clinch a playoff berth either next time they win or next time the Fire lose. The Valkyries are playing the Wings tonight, the Lynx on Wednesday, and the Sky on Friday. The Fire don’t play until Friday when they take on the Tempo
• We saw a lot of consistent shrinkage in the Valkyrie’s magic numbers for the higher position seeds with all of them now dropping into single digits
• The Valkyries have 11 games remaining and only four remaining games against playoff teams, we’ll have seen all four of those by the end of next week (when they play the Liberty-biberty next week on the 27th)
• The Sun were eliminated and they joined the Storm in the lottery chase
• Next up on elimination watch is the Tempo with a losing magic number of 2 before they officially bow out of the playoffs
• The Aces squeezed in and clinched while we were out of action, which makes GSV the next team in line to clinch a playoff spot. Next in line are the Fever with a magic number of 2 and the Liberty with 3
• Due in part to their loss to the Lynx and the fact that most teams have games in hand on them the Aces don’t currently control their own destiny for the first, second, or third seed
• The Fire are still in 9th place, 5 wins back from the Wings in 8th
• No new tiebreakers, that said the important tie breakers are pretty much decided (current playoff teams in bold):
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/17 - DAL @ GSV
• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV 
• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN
• 8/26 - GSV @ CON

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/13/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

Vi taking flight in Ballhalla? How about a win to celebrate her birthday!

Despite missing Kiah and Ja, we saw the Valkyrie’s pull together a solid win and shave a win off their magic number. The “stay ready” crowd even got some action, that’s right Ashten, Nadia and JJ, we see you!

Meanwhile, the Lynx did us a solid and beat the Fire. The Fire are currently the 9th place team and sit 11 wins back from the Valkyries with only 12 games left to play. Which is the long way of saying that the Fire losing tonight also dropped another number off the Valks magic number. That means that the Valkyries magic number for the 8th seed and the playoffs is now 1.

We’ll see the Valkyrie’s punch their ticket to the playoffs with either their next win or the Fire’s next loss.

Current Standings through 8/12:

• Current Valkyries Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 1
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers through 8/12: 

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 10
• 3 Seed: 9
• 4 Seed: 9
• 5 Seed: 8
• 6 Seed: 7
• 7 Seed: 7
• 8 Seed: 1

(note: had to do these by hand today so may update them if I find errors)

Notes:

• The Sun are next on elimination watch with a losing magic number of 3 before they officially bow out of the playoffs 
• As we’ve covered above the Valkyries clinch a playoff berth either next time they win or next time the Fire lose. The Fire play the Storm on Friday and the Mercury on Sunday. 
• The next teams in line to clinch playoff spots are the Valkyries and the Aces, with respective magic numbers of 3 and 4. Currently the Valkyries have a game in hand on the Aces which means that, at least for the moment, the Aces don’t control their own destiny for the second seed.
• The Fire are still in 9th place, 7 wins back from the Liberty-Biberty in 8th
• No movement on tiebreakers, but the Valks got a step close against the Sky. That said the important tie breakers are pretty much decided (current playoff teams in bold):
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/17 - DAL @ GSV
• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV 
• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN
• 8/26 - GSV @ CON

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/10/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

A wonderful Sunday game! (yes I am in total denial about how down to the wire it came and I am now moving on though the power of wilful denial)

In a piece of history, this win tied last season’s win total of 23 but in a whopping 9 less games with the opportunity to grow the number a bit more too. All said and done, a win by the Valkyries, and some of the action we’ll talk about in the next paragraph, was great news for their magic number, which now stands at a relatively minimal 3 wins.

We also watched the Lynx punch the first ticket to the playoffs with their win over the Wings. The Liberty-Biberty took care of business against the Aces and in doing so helped put the Aces a game and a half back on the Valkyries for 2nd in the standings. The Mystics also beat the Mercury which, especially when paired with the Sparks losing, added to the buffer between 8th and 9th place.

All in all, a hell of a weekend for the Valkyries in the standings before a three game Ballhalla home stand! 

Current Standings through 8/9:

• Current Valkyrie’s Seeding: 2 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 3
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers through 8/9:

• 1 Seed: DNCD (do not control destiny, other teams need to lose)
• 2 Seed: 11
• 3 Seed: 10
• 4 Seed: 9
• 5 Seed: 8
• 6 Seed: 8
• 7 Seed: 7
• 8 Seed: 3

Notes:

• With the Storm being out, The Sun are next on elimination watch with a losing magic number of 3 before they officially bow out of the playoffs 
• The next teams in line to clinch playoff spots are the Valkyries and the Aces, with respective magic numbers of 3 and 4. Currently the Valkyries have a game in hand on the Aces which means that, at least for the moment, the Aces don’t control their own destiny for the second seed.
• With their three game skid the Wings have dropped into 8th place 
• The Fire managed to get to 13 wins by beating the Storm on Saturday and that means the Fire are in 9th place, 6 wins back from the Wings.
• Another update also means another clinched tiebreaker, this time the Valks clinched the tie break against the Sparks. Here is the tie breakers list, the current playoff teams in bold:
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, LAS, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/12 - CHI @ GSV
• 8/17 - DAL @ GSV
• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV 
• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI
• 8/24 - GSV @ MIN

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/8/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

An action packed night last night! While it was clear the Wings were missing Azzi it was a great game for a Ballhallan! The win meant we got to see both of the teams right behind the Valks, the Wings and the Dream, lose last night which let the Valkyrie’s pad out a three win lead on both teams. Additionally the Valkyrie’s clinched their tie break against Dallas meaning that all the teams behind the Valkyries need to actually have a better record outright in order to pass them which is great news.

Before the second half of the mini road trip resumes in LA on Sunday, we get to enjoy the matchup between the Lynx and the Aces tonight. This is one of those games where we get to watch the Valks benefit regardless of the outcome because anytime you get to watch the two teams in front of you play it means that one of them has to lose. Either the Lynx lose and their 3 win lead over both the Valks and Aces dwindles a bit or the Aces lose and we keep even with them with a game in hand.

So with that said, back to the numbers!

Current Standings through 8/7:

• Current Valkyrie’s Seeding: 3 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 5
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers through 8/7:

• 1 Seed: DNCD (team does not control their destiny, need other teams to lose)
• 2 Seed: 12
• 3 Seed: 10
• 4 Seed: 10
• 5 Seed: 9
• 6 Seed: 8
• 7 Seed: 7
• 8 Seed: 5

Notes:

• Tonight saw the first official post season seeding news with the Storm officially being mathematically eliminated from playoff contention 
• We are still waiting on the first team to clinch a playoff spot and The Lynx remain one win away. They have a chance to win in today against the Aces, but we’ll find out tonight  if A’ja and crew have other plans.
• With the Mystics win tonight we also saw the Liberty-biberty drop into 8th place due to win percentage, but the Biberty have a whopping 7 wins more than the Sparks who are currently sitting in 9th so I don’t think they will be losing any sleep just yet
• The Valks locked in the tie breaker against Dallas! While I’ll keep tracking, it’s worth noting that this was the last truly important one unless something wild happens. Three of the remaining teams don’t currently have a ticket to the dance and aren’t super likely to get one. On the other side, the Lynx have a sizable lead on us and have already won 2 of our 4 matchups meaning best case here is the Valks win both games and then we just drop into looking at other tie breaks like various point differentials. Here is the tie breakers list, the current playoff teams in bold:
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, DAL, IND, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Undecided tie breaks: CHI, LAS, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/9 - GSV @ LAS
• 8/12 - CHI @ GSV
• 8/17 - DAL @ GSV
• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV 
• 8/21 - GSV @ CHI

Links:

• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/7/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

The march toward post season clarity continues! This week a pair of strong games against the Tempo saw two wins drop off the Valkyries magic numbers. In what counts as a bit of a bonus, we also saw the Sky's victory over the Sparks take a win off the board for any of the teams sitting on the outside, and reduce the numbers for some of those within.

All said and done that means 2-3 wins have dropped off of the Valkyrie’s magic numbers depending on the seed in question, that already makes for a pretty great week. Tonight, we get to see the Valks matchup against the Wings in what is arguably one of the most important games on the Valkyrie’s remaining schedule.

Why? Simply put, GSV doesn’t have a lot of games against teams inside the playoff bubble. Only five out of the team’s remaining fourteen games in fact. A pair of games against the Wings, two more against the Lynx, and a final game to close out the series against the Liberty-biberty make up the list. These games inside the bubble are important as they can have the value of giving a team a win while holding their competition down in place, these games make for a valuable double win swing that the Valkyries don’t want to squander.

This is especially true with the Wings nipping at the Valkyrie's heels only two games back. It would certainly make life a lot easier on the Valks tonight to pad out the seeding a bit more. Also, as if that weren’t reason enough for a win, taking at least one of the remaining games against the Wings would also lock in the most valuable of the five undecided tie breaks in the Valkyrie’s favor.

So TL;DR …G! …S! …V! …G! …S! …V!

…now, onto the numbers! (numbers include all games played through the end of 8/6)

Current Standings:

• Current Valkyrie’s Seeding: 3 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 6
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers:

• 1 Seed: DNCD (team does not control their destiny, need other teams to lose)
• 2 Seed: 13
• 3 Seed: 12
• 4 Seed: 12
• 5 Seed: 11
• 6 Seed: 10
• 7 Seed: 9
• 8 Seed: 6

Notes:

• The current 9th place team is the Sparks with a losing number of 9 games, the 9th place team hitting their losing number would lock in the playoff field
• 9th place is quite the mess at the moment, there are four (!!!) teams with 12 wins clumped on the edge of the bubble with LA currently taking the tie breaks, but honestly right now it can change when someone sneezes the wrong way
• As for 8th place, that is the Mystics with a 5 game lead on the Sparks
• We are on the verge of the first team clinching a playoff spot, The Lynx are one win away from their ticket to the post season
• With the 2nd win over the Tempo (the 3rd win was just fun-sies) the Valkyries scooped up yet another tie breaker. The current breakdown with playoff teams in bold:
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, IND, NYL, PHX, SEA, TOR, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Teams we still have to play more: CHI, DAL, LAS, MIN, PDX

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/7 - GSV @ DAL
• 8/9 - GSV @ LAS
• 8/12 - CHI @ GSV
• 8/17 - DAL @ GSV
• 8/19 - MIN @ GSV

Links:

• Next Magic Number Check In 8/8/26
• Previous Magic Number Check In 8/2/26
• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

It's that time of year again to start keeping an eye on the standings and seeing where the Valkyrie's stand in relation to the playoffs and for us to get some understanding around the team's magic number. If you aren't familiar with what a Magic Number is, it's the number of wins needed for a team to be assured a certain space in the standings, generally it is used to refer to clinching a playoff spot (in the W's case, the 8th seed) but magic numbers exist for each seed and this season we'll actually be paying more attention to those as they now matter a lot more to the Valks than they it did last year.

At this point in the season The Valkyries are currently at third in the standings with a record of 19-9 which works out to a 0.679 win percentage, A bit of a contrast to last year where we saw them sitting at a 14-14 and even .500 and battling on the bubble for their first playoff birth.

Suffice to say that last I started tracking our magic number a lot later out of necessity, there was too much complexity and we were really focused on just the 8th seed. Fortunately this season magic number tracking is going to take a very different form for the team. A few weeks back in back half of the win streak I started doing some checks on where GSV stood in the playoff race. I decided that once the team dipped under 10 wins to make the playoffs it would be time for me to start dropping some periodic updates to give everyone a look at where the team sits.

So, with that, let's dive into the 2026's first Magic Number update!

Current Standing:

• Current Valkyrie’s Seeding: 3 of 15
• Current Magic Number to Clinch the Playoffs: 9
• Current Highest Possible Finish: 1st
• Highest Possible Finish without Help: 2nd

Current Magic Numbers:

Notes:

• While we're waiting for the Valkyrie's to clinch their spot, it's also useful to look at Losing Magic numbers for the 9th place team (currently the Sky) and we can see that their losing number is 11 games which would lock in the playoff field.
• Should the Valkyrie's finish tied with any teams in the standings we'll go to some tie breaks to determine seeding, the first of which is head to head record with the team they are tied with in the standings. I've been tracking to see when we clinch tie breaks and fortunately the Valks have been collecting tie breaks like Pokemon! Of the teams GSV has played enough to determine the tie breaks only the Aces hold the tie break over the Valkyries. Here are the current status of tie breaks, bold notes teams that currently hold a playoff seeding:
  • Valks hold the tie break over: ATL, CON, IND, NYL, PHX, SEA, WAS
  • Teams that hold the tie break over the Valks: LVA
  • Teams we still have to play more: CHI, DAL, LAS, MIN, PDX, TOR
  • Note: Every team plays every other team 3 times, with the exception of two teams they face four times. The Valkyries play MIN an PDX 4 times this season. GSV has 1 win over PDX and three games left to play. MIN has dealt the Valks two losses so the best we can hope for there is to force a tie to move to move further down the tie break list

The Valkyries Next 5 Games:

• 8/2 - TOR @ GSV
• 8/4 - TOR @ GSV
• 8/7 - GSV @ DAL
• 8/9 - GSV @ LAS
• 8/12 - CHI @ GSV

Links:

• Valkyrie's Head to Head Tie Breaks
• The Substack for this post (give me a follow if you want these in your inbox, I'll also be doing some PWHL SJ and Sharks updates too if those interest you)

Hi everyone! The Valkyrie's win over the Mystics yesterday officially puts us at the halfway mark of the season, and since I still had the spreadsheet I used to run an attempt at a quarter mark report card, I opted to load the the info for the next 11 games for this season and last on it and continue the analysis.

So just like last time, lets start with the high level record stats for the season so far:

• Record: 15-7
• Home Record: 10-3
• Road Record: 5-4
• Current Standings: 3rd out of 15
• Win Percentage: .682

For those that recall the heady halcyon days of early June when the Valks had just passed the 11 game mark, they had succeeded in put together a modestly more successful run than last season. So how did the team do over this 11 game span?

The team frankly knocked the last 11 games out of the park with a 9-2 record and a .818 win percentage. While it may be tempting to just think of the current 5 game win streak, it is important to note GSV started the stretch of with a 4 game streak and only managed to give up 2 losses in the entire stretch that were incidentally against the only two teams still above us in the standings (Aces and Lynx as you all well know). Critically five games were against teams GSV were behind at various points in the first 11 games and we saw the Valkyries beat Dallas and New York pretty convincingly and almost single handedly drag the Dream from 3rd to 7th in the standings.

As you may recall, on the sheet I used standing at the end of each 11 game stretch to calculate a crude strength of schedule average. While the the current 11 game stretch ended with a middle of the pack 7 it made me realize that that way I calculated sort of punishes success as the team started off much closer to 5. This indicate that this stretch was against higher competition, however in winning 5 games against teams above them the team averaged out what was a pretty tough stretch through hindsight. So in short, the teams play made a tough set of match ups look much easier.

As you may recall if you read the last post, GSV and their defensive calling card was one of the the points of consistency for both seasons in Q1. Last year's second 11 game stretch showed a similar improvement for them last year by dropping points allowed against from 879 to 838, pretty good and one of the things that really explained the team's identity coming together last year. This year started off at 885 points against in Q1 and dropped a whopping 81 points to 804 against over the last 11 games, it passes the eyeball test, but shows that we've started to watch the team really reinforce their defensive credentials. The blowout against the Aces was the only double digit lost to blemish our credentials.

Offensively we did see a little bit of regression as the team dropped to 861 points from 944 earlier in the season. Incidentally is the lower than this point last year (889), but the average margin of games stuck at the steady +5 points, which incidentally is the same margin the team held for the first 11 games this season and the corresponding Q2 11 game stretch last year. We saw less blowouts in either direction over this stretch as well with just a pair of +11 wins and a +20 win and one -19 loss.

Last time I talked a bit about late game luck and how the Valkyries by looking at games that ended within 6 points, the team had 4 close games and won 1 of them. This time around the Valks had 5 close games and walked away with 4 wins out of 5. I warned about the regression hobgoblin coming for us and it's something we should continue to be conscious of as we watch, though pairing this with our defensive consistency does lead me to invoke the words of the great Kaitlyn Chen "If they don't score, we don't lose" as a mitigating counterpoint.

So what is the summary? In short, we really couldn't have asked for a better 11 game stretch, while there are small things we can seize on and no group is without reproach for critique and feedback a 9-2 run is, no matter how we slice it, an unmitigated success. Last time I noted that the Valks underlying numbers indicated they were a better team than their record showed and I think we saw that play out over this stretch.

I noted that pure extrapolation put the team at a 24-20 record after 11 games, but noted that we could be looking at something closer to 27-17 as a final record if things started popping. Incidentally if we take GSVs current 15-7 record and simply extrapolate it out, we land at 30-14. Knowing the schedule has some bumps for us I think it is still healthy to stick with this being a 24-28 win team.

Putting that in plain English I think I stand by the fact that the numbers bare out the fact that there are three pods of teams this year:

• The Elite - 1st through 3rd, still containing the Aces and Lynx
• The Contenders - 4th through 6th, made up of the Fever, Liberty and Wings
• The Bubble - 7th through 8th, the battle royal that still probably contains the Mystics, Tempo, Fire, Sparks, Mercury

You'll note that I left the Valkyries and the Dream out, last time around the Dream were looking like the bottom of the Elite and we were looking middle of the pack with the contenders. As of today after 3 rapid fire wins, the Valkyries are sitting pretty in 3rd and the Dream are in 7th. I don't expect the Dream to stay stuck in 7th, the numbers are just making them look like they are in bubble, but I do think they have shown a few too many flaws to be included in the Elite until they show us otherwise. The Valkyries on the other hand have the opportunity to set the tone in the next 11 games. Depending on how they play, GSV has a approximate floor of being a middle of the pack Contender and a probable ceiling of near/bottom tier Elite********^(1), all said and done that is right where they want to be at this point in the season.

Let's see where the next 11 games take us.

As a quick aside, I intend to keep posting all of my ramblings and magic number fun here on Reddit, but for the purpose of making it all easier for me to refer back to past ramblings and also give me a way to share similar content around PWHL San Jose and the San Jose Sharks, I've decided to start up a Numbers with Ninjafuzz Substack as well, feel free to give it a look if that is of interest to you.

^(1) having already played all the games against the Aces and with only 2 games left against the Lynx it's hard to have the statement games needed to prove they are better than either team just yet, in my mind it would take a playoff series win against one of the teams to prove that at this point)

...calling that draft party sponsorship now.

Hi everyone! So with Saturday's tilt against the Aces in the rear view that officially means the Valkyries are at the quarter mark of the season. I felt a little inspired to take a look at how the team has been fairing so far so lets start with the high level record stats for the first 11 games this season:

• Record: 6-5
• Home Record: 4-2
• Road Record: 2-3
• Current Standings: 6th out of 15
• Win Percentage: .545

All in all a more than respectable start. Record wise the team, at 6-5, is a little better than last year's 5-6 start on a season which of course finished with a 23-21 record and a .523 winning percentage and put us in 8th for the playoffs.

While I think there should always be caution in comparing teams from different seasons, we saw the most returning players (9) out of any WNBA team this year so there is some signal to be drawn out. At the same time last year's first 11 games hadn't quite taken us through Eurobasket so this data still includes a lot of Vanloo, Talbot, Mo, Temi and Leite who have of course left the team through various means. Likewise shows less of Ja and no Illy.

All of the above is what makes this comparison worth looking at in my mind as we can compare what a year of experience for most of the roster plus Gabby, Stokes and a dash of JJ have done for the team's fortunes. These numbers can also be compared to last year's results without factoring in the fact the question mark of what were missing with Illy being out.

Now that I've rambled about disclaimers and context enough I'll share the spreadsheet I built out to compare the two teams results.

Lets start with where things are pretty similar, record wise the teams are within a game of each other. Likewise the schedules were pretty similarly drawn up from a strength of schedule point with last year showing an average standings of 7 and this years showing 8 which with the addition of two teams this year means both schedules average out to the median team difficulty in both seasons. So in short, no strength of schedule shenanigans to account for when looking at these numbers.

Now let's look at the team's calling card, defense. This season we've seen 885 points against, a slight increase of 6 over last year's 879 against, in fact when we average and round to whole numbers, the Valks are averaging 80 points against in both seasons. No shocker there as Nat has always prioritized defense and we got that right very quickly. Where we do start to see something interesting however is that last year the team had a tendency to lose big with a 17 point loss in the opener to the Sparks and that 28 point loss in the first meeting with the Liberty, with three more games being lost by the 9 to 11 point range. This season however we've only lost one game by double digits, the first aces game by 10 points, the team is decidedly keeping games much tighter. While you win some and lose some when it comes to tight games, the some you win make it more valuable when you don't get blown out in your loses.

Flipping to the other side of the ball we'll talk Offense next. Last season we saw the team score 852 points in their first 11 games and many noted their slower pace of play. Unlike with our defense, our offense has seen a big jump, 944 points in the first 11 games, an increase of about 92 points. This means on average the Valks are scoring 86 points a game to last year's 77 points. We're seeing on average 9 points more per game, a clear reflection of our added skill and our faster pace of play. Additionally while we've seen a decrease in blowouts against it's worth noting we only blew out the Aces last year by 27 points, this year we've seen four games where we've topped out teams by 15 or more points.

It should all go without saying that 86 points a game on average instead of 77 when you hold your opponents to 80 as well as more blowouts for as opposed to more blowouts against equals more wins on average and that is exactly what we see with our average game margin being +5 points this year instead of -2

One last note, let's try to factor in late game luck by looking at games that ended within 6 points, so two scoring plays. Last season the Valks had 3 close games and won 2 of them, so luck generally broke our way early last year. This year, the team has seen 4 close games and only won 1 of them. So despite luck breaking against the Valkyries to start the season we're still up a game over last year. It isn't unreasonable to expect a bit of regression to kick in and favor GSV in a few close games down the road.

So what is the summary? This year's team IS better and they are playing like it, if we extrapolate out the current record we get 24-20 to finish the season which is the difference between us finishing 6th and 8th last season.

However given some of the underlying numbers I think the Valks are generally better than their record shows at this point. If we see them keeping this consistent level of play I don't think it's at all unreasonable to be talking about something closer to 27-17 which puts them more in the discussion for a 4th or 5th seeding last season.

Putting that all in plain English basically reaffirms what we're seeing with our eyes and in the current standings. It's going to be hard to catch the elite (Lynx, Aces, Dream) but the team is probably above the bubble (Fire, Tempo, Mystics, Sky, Sparks) this year and we are probably going to find the Valkyries battling with the other contenders (Fever, Liberty, Wing) for 4th and the last available first round advantage.

...also a shameless self plug, looking for something to do this evening without a Valks game? Check out the San Mateo county fair. My band is playing the Fiesta stage at 6:30pm, but lots of great acts and fair food to hold you over until the PHX game on Tuesday!

Oh, what's that? Spreadsheets are for September? You can't get obsessed with individual game results in June? You are three months too early u/da_ninjafuzz! To you madam, sir or the honorific of your choice I say "HA! What about the Commissioner's Cup!"

With nothing but nervous energy due to the nail biter that was tonight's Valkyries v. Lynx match up (always close enough to hurt right u/EricApricot?) I fell back into nervous spreadsheeting to cope. Fortunately that means I was able to re-craft my Playoff Stretch Run Calculator into a spiffy new Commissioner's Cup Calculator. You can make a copy it on your Google drive and play out your own cup fears and fantasies.

I'll let us get a few more games in to see if I need to take a crack at some light magic number work as practice for the stretch run at the end of the season.

Number and Links:

• Current Valkyrie’s Cup Record: 1-1
• Current Commissioner's Cup Standings
• Commissioner's Cup Calculator