u/david1610

Here is a chart that shows the real house price growth, setting the index to start at 1990 at 100 for each country. The data is from FRED API and plotted in Matplotlib.

The data is aggregated across a whole economy. The chart is split into those countries above the average (average of the same group of countries) and those below. The average series, while not looking it is actually the same between the two charts, due to the different y axis. This was done just to make the series easier to follow.

The series are all moving averages of 4 Quarters to smooth.

Please see the above graph, that shows 9 major developed countries and their overall house price growth since 1990 adjusting for inflation. It is an index where all countries are 100 at 1990, so they are forced to start from the same place. This is useful because different countries start with very different starting points and types of housing.

It further splits them into countries that are above the average for the 8 countries, and countries that are below. Just to limit the amount of series on one chart axis. The average series is the same series shared between each graph.

It is also smoothed with a 4 qtr moving average, all data is from FRED. Which is the best source for economic time series, as it is made especially to be useful to economists.

What this can be used for:

- comparisons of growth between countries.

- trends

What this cannot be used for:

- country X is more expensive than country Y

What are your thoughts?

Edit: I have added NZL and reposted as someone suggested, as NZL is a striking country to include.

Please see the FRED real house price income series index, where each series starts in 1990 all at 100, and is a 4 quarter moving average just to smooth it and make it easier to follow. 'Real' here just means adjusted for inflation. This is used to compare the house price growth rather than a comparison of price levels, as that can be hard with very different house types and starting points.

The graph is split up into those countries above the 8 country average and those below for the final quarter.

The data is from FRED, extracted using FRED API into matplotlib and then graphed.

Please see one of the most interesting graphs available from the ABS CPI data. It shows in the top graph the categories that have grown faster than general CPI, and in the bottom graph are those categories that have grown more slowly in the last few decades.

Please note, if you are wondering why housing is lower than you'd expect, it is because land is not included in CPI as it is considered an asset not a consumption good/service. It only includes things like new buildings, rent etc.

Also note that insurance and finance started in 2005, so is set to start at the 'all groups CPI' index level to begin with.

Created this yesterday out of curiosity, it tries to show an index for what new buyers pay in repayments. It uses real house prices index from Fred, as this data was easier to find than perhaps better series like median house prices over time, I believe this is mean real house prices however could be wrong. It then uses a mortgage repayment formula along with the approximate interest rates to get the repayment index. Noting that I could only find a good series of the cash rate, so just added a flat 3% points and called that the mortgage interest rate. So, this series is definitely approximate and can likely be approved on with the right data.

Still very interesting with the remarkable flatness from 2005-2020, falling interest rates are the likely cause of this, since house prices are obviously increasing over this period. Then you see the largest increase in real repayment prices in the 2023-2026 period. As noted above this does not include deposits or adjusting for any kind of real wage growth over this period.

This question has really been in my head for the last few months, with all the talk of housing issues, I figured I would show something not often talked about. Some states produce more housing than others, and it is not explained by population or immigration. Thoughts? I find this pretty interesting.

For example:

• the ACT produces almost 2 times more housing per capita than almost every other state, this tends not to be detached housing.
• WA is very bubbly for both builds and net immigration. Makes sense given its commodity economy.
• VIC produces roughly 23% more housing per capita a quarter than NSW, over the last 25 years. Previously to this NSW produced more housing. It also produces 50-80% more detached housing than NSW/QLD over the last 15 years or so.
• NSW had a building boom in ~2017 which seems to be mostly apartments (or townhouses), however from what I know of that period it was likely more apartments.
• Please note that when I did a deep dive into immigration stats recently, I also showed how our natural rate of population growth, essentially births minus deaths, has been slowing as longevity increases slow, so you'd have to adjust for that to see the effect on overall population change, which was not done here. Please see my other posts if you want that more involved immigration analysis.

Done using ABS data in Python/Matplotlib