r/EconomyCharts

Well there we have it folks. The US national debt officially crossed $40 trillion.

US interest expense on the national debt hit a record $1.4 trillion over the last 12 months. If rates remain stable, interest payments are set to rise to $1.7 trillion by November 2028.

As a result, interest will surpass Social Security spending as the government's largest outlay for the first time.

Gini is a measurement of economic equality something that was improving in this country until the late 1970s where it stalled and reversed beginning a four decade period where equality decreased by 20%, a move that shows a statistically strong correlation with the accumulation of wealth in the form of savings (which makes sense as savings are extra money not needed to live).

Inflation has grown those savings from $348B in 1975 preceding peak equality by three years to $10.6T when the series collection was halted in 2020.

Absolute cause and effect is impossible to determine, but it's pretty clear that a small group of people has accumulated more wealth at a much faster pace then the rest of the people.

quick setup: the July FOMC minutes drop at 2pm ET. that meeting held rates at 3.50-3.75% but with an unusually visible 9-3 split, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all wanted a 25bp hike. so the obvious thing to mine the minutes for is how far that hawkish view spread into the voting majority. if more officials were leaning hike than the three formal dissents suggest, that reads hawkish.

but here's the catch, and it's the actual trade: the minutes are backward-looking, and a lot has happened since July 29. July payrolls came in negative, inflation gauges softened, and retail sales unexpectedly dropped. all of that cut against the hawks, the market's now pricing 67-70% for a September hold. so the minutes capture a debate that the data has arguably already overtaken.

the usual pattern with stale minutes is a quick repricing on the initial read, then a fade once everyone remembers the info is three weeks old. and there's a bigger event right behind it Jackson Hole, where Warsh speaks. with Warsh having killed forward guidance, every meeting's basically live, which cuts both ways: it makes the minutes matter more (no guidance elsewhere) but also makes them more likely to be leapfrogged by the next data point.

what i'd watch immediately: the 2-year yield. it's the cleanest tell for whether traders read it hawkish or dovish.

genuinely curious how the room's playing it:

• do you trade the initial minutes reaction, or sit out knowing stale minutes tend to fade?
• if the minutes read hawkish but the data since says hold, which wins in your positioning?
• is anyone even trading this, or is Jackson Hole the real event and today's just noise?

Europe’s sharpest and flattest salary borders including the effect of local prices, not just the paycheck.
For many people, crossing a border for work is not an exception, it’s part of the economic model.

Europe’s trade network remains strongly regional, as governments seek deeper commercial ties with some of the world’s fastest-growing markets.

Export data for 2025 shows Germany at the center of this network. It is the leading destination for goods from Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, and Sweden, among others. The Netherlands sits at the top of the origins, exporting $213.7 billion to Germany, followed by Poland with $107.1 billion and Belgium with $103.8 billion.

The United States plays a similarly important role for several of Europe’s largest economies. It is the main destination for exports from Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, receiving $159.2 billion, $121 billion, and $89.2 billion in goods, respectively. France leads as Spain’s principal market, while Italy occupies that position for Greece and the United Kingdom for Norway.

The map also reveals how these relationships change within countries. Regional data for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom show that national totals can conceal substantial internal variation. While Germany is France and Italy’s largest export market overall, individual regions depend more heavily on the United States, Switzerland, Spain, and neighboring economies.

These patterns can help explain some of the European Union’s push to broaden its market access beyond the continent. The EU–Mercosur agreement began provisional application on May 1, 2026, strengthening trade links with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. The bloc also concluded free-trade negotiations with India in January 2026, although the agreement must still complete its legal review, signature, and approval procedures.

Negotiations with the United Arab Emirates form another part of this strategy. Talks launched in May 2025 and have continued through several rounds of negotiations, with the EU seeking greater access to a major Gulf commercial hub.

Together, these agreements reflect an effort to expand Europe’s commercial options, aiming to diversify increasingly in the years ahead.

Data: OEC.world
Trade context: EU–Mercosur agreement · EU–India agreements · EU–UAE negotiations

Long-term borrowing costs surge from the US to Japan and Europe as inflation fears and fiscal pressures intensify.

Key highlights:

- US 30-year Treasury yields top 5% (highest since 2007); oil above $90/barrel (up 50% this year) and fading US-Iran peace hopes fuel inflation worries.

- Japan’s 10-year yields near 3% (3-decade high) amid rate-hike expectations as early as September.

- German, French, and UK long-term yields also at multi-year/decade highs.

- High government debt (US, Japan, France, UK), AI data-center capital demand, rising deficits, and weaker foreign demand for Treasuries (Japan, UK, China holdings fell in June) drive the selling.

Experts: Markets entering an era of greater inflation/rate uncertainty and upside risks (Kjersti Haugland, DNB Carnegie); 5% US 10-year level critical for confidence (Guy Miller, Zurich); Japanese yields now more competitive, reducing automatic foreign absorption of US supply (Charu Chanana, Saxo Bank).

Rising yields raise costs for companies, mortgages, and growth—potentially tightening conditions just as stocks hit records.

Source: Reuters

Since 2020, Chinese chip industry sales have nearly doubled.

As a result, China now accounts for ~6% of the global semiconductor market.

This is roughly in-line with Japan and the European Union, at ~7% each, and Taiwan, at ~6%.

By comparison, North America represents 53% of the market, while South Korea accounts for 21%.

Inspired by a recent post that needed more context, I looked into how spending has changed over time by age bracket. This shows average spending over time, with a simple cumulative multiplier in the legend.

As expected, 35-54 are peak spending years. There is a recent gap between the two groups there, with 35-44 falling behind suddenly. Note the divergence between 35-44 and 45-54, with the younger group under performing.

25-34 and 55-64 started in a similar place, but again we see a marked difference over time. The 25-34 group has been losing ground consistently, barely keeping up with inflation.

This does lend some support to the 'woe-is-me' mantra of younger redditors. Opportunities for <35 do look like they have dwindled and 35-44 is showing signs of stress.

Don't worry kids. You'll have money when you are older. /s

Data Source: US BLS, from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CXUTOTALEXPLB0404M (etc)

Tools: Plotted in Google sheets. The inflation approx is blend of PCE Price index and GDP Price index. Unfortunately google tools don't make it easy to overlay recessions. Key points are late 1990, 2001, 2008 & 2009, and 2020. These are most visible in the 35-44 group.