u/ceph2apod

Southeast Asia is tracking toward a comprehensive, structural wipeout of internal combustion engines by 2030 (2024> 2025> 2026 data and> 2030 projections):
Singapore: 34%> 46% > 60%> 98%+
Viet Nam: 20%> 40%> 45%> 90%+
Thailand 13%> 20%> 35%> 80%+
Indonesia 7%> 15%> 70%+

https://x.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/2057464845671502313/photo/1

The incredible pace of this Southeast Asian EV boom was achieved at remarkable speed using highly efficient lithium-ion and LFP batteries, which acted as absolute workhorses to establish these baseline trends. This tech performed flawlessly, dropping average pack costs and proving that electric vehicles could easily win the market using existing manufacturing baselines.

But what is hitting the market today and filling the development pipeline is so much better it completely resets the industry's performance ceiling. Major breakthroughs like sodium-ion batteries are entering mass production right now to solve real-world pain points, maintaining massive power delivery even in extreme, sub-zero cold where older chemistries struggle. At the same time, rapid innovations in cell design and next-gen solid-state tech are pushing energy densities up to 400–600 Wh/kg, effectively blasting standard vehicle ranges past 1,000 kilometers per charge. Paired with newly commercialized megawatt-level flash charging that can top off a battery from 10% to 70% in just five minutes, these scaling innovations are driving down assembly complexities and triggering an unprecedented cost collapse that leaves gas-powered vehicles completely obsolete.

The massive stock market crash following the 1973 oil crisis did not occur during the embargo itself, but rather in the six months after the embargo was lifted. Historical market analysis from Bloomberg indicates that equity markets often exhibit a delayed reaction, taking considerable time to fully internalize and price in the complex macroeconomic damages of a major geopolitical energy shock

Why the Delay Happened

Investors initially reacted to the immediate political headlines, such as ceasefires and diplomatic negotiations. It took months for the secondary economic realities—such as broken supply chains, structural shifts in energy costs, and skyrocketing consumer inflation—to flow through corporate earnings and trigger a systemic selloff. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2026/05/11/after-1973-oil-shock-stock-market-didnt-recover-for-20-years-can-that-happen-again/

In the first four months of 2026, the average wholesale electricity price in Spain was €44 per megawatt-hour. In Italy, it was €127. In Germany, €96. In the UK, €103. Spain is now cheaper than France, well below the central-European bloc, and within striking distance of the Nordic hydro-and-nuclear heavyweights that have always topped the cheap-power league.

This is not where most observers expected Spain to be. A decade ago, Spain was a cautionary tale of stranded solar investment and one of Europe’s more expensive power markets. Today it sits near the bottom of the price table, and the gap is widening.

The story behind that ranking is, on its surface, simple. Spain increasingly pulled gas out of its electricity supply, and the price of electricity followed. But it is more complex than that.

If you stack solar and wind against all fossil generation (gas plus the last embers of coal and oil), the lines crossed in 2022. That was the first year wind plus solar generated more electricity than every fossil source combined. Through the first quarter of 2026, the gap has widened further. Solar and wind delivered 44% of generation, fossil fuels 17%.

This is the structural story that many arguments about energy policy circle around. Spain did not just add renewables on top of a fossil base. It substituted. The fossil curve has been falling, year after year, while the renewable curve has been climbing.

OP: https://janrosenow.substack.com/p/spain-just-became-one-of-europes

This graphic shows how solar beat the IEA’s 2015 forecast for 2025 by 1,800%.

Back then, the IEA expected the world to add about 34 GW of solar each year through to 2040. In 2025, the world added almost 650 GW.

As for solar generation, that reached almost 2,800 TWh in 2025, about as much electricity as the EU consumes in a year. That helped clean power meet all new electricity demand growth globally and nudged fossil generation into decline.

The story implicit in this graphic is that #solar behaves more like semiconductors than fossil fuels. As manufacturing scales, costs fall. Every doubling of global cumulative solar capacity has historically reduced costs by about 20%.

It also explores the 'killer app' of the transition: solar + batteries. As Ember puts it, 'the accelerating build-out of solar power is increasingly taking place alongside battery storage deployment, enabling the next paradigm shift – from daytime solar to anytime solar..'

Full infographic and write-up: https://www.climatetrunk.com/infographics/the-sun-has-won

To put this in perspective: China alone installed 415 GW of solar in 2025. That single country's solar installations in one year exceeded the entire cumulative capacity of every operational nuclear reactor on Earth combined (~376 GW).

U.S. Semiconductor Production Surges While Manufacturing Remains Flat

From 2012 to 2026, the U.S. semiconductor production index soared by nearly 200%, driven by rapid growth in AI, data centers, and advanced computing demand. In contrast, overall U.S. manufacturing output remained largely stagnant over the same period, underscoring the semiconductor industry’s outsized role as one of the fastest-growing segments of American manufacturing.

Then, Trump killed clean energy, which was very manufacturing- and jobs-intensive, and chose to focus on AI which is great for consolidating wealth up to billionaires.

Petrol cars will, very soon, be for museums only. No wonder petrostates are desperately starting oil wars.

Wild how off the mark the IEA has been: In 2019, they thought we'd barely hit a 5% share by now Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026

And this amazing innovation has not hit the market yet, this battery will last 100 years:

261 Wh/kg & 20,000 Cycles — VW's Secret Weapon Is a Sodium-Ion Battery

"Volkswagen is reportedly developing a next-generation sodium-ion battery with an energy density of 261 Wh/kg and an incredible lifespan of up to 20,000 charge cycles, potentially making it one of the most durable EV batteries ever created. The technology could dramatically reduce battery costs, improve cold-weather reliability, and lessen dependence on expensive materials like lithium and cobalt, signaling a major shift in the future EV market."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i12FYaF7a_Y

China’s electric truck revolution is accelerating faster than ever. ⚡🚛

Electric heavy trucks are now becoming dramatically cheaper to operate than diesel, thanks to lower energy costs, reduced maintenance, battery swapping technology, and massive charging infrastructure expansion across China. Freight companies are rapidly electrifying their fleets as operating costs continue to favor electric transportation.

Industry analysts report that electric heavy trucks already represent a fast growing share of new truck sales in China, with adoption surging across logistics and industrial transport sectors. Some experts estimate lifetime operating costs can be nearly half those of diesel trucks under current fuel prices.🚛⚡ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-war-accelerate-chinas-shift-electric-trucks-diesel-2026-05-07/

OP: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/robin-singh-694787218\_electrictrucks-ev-china-share-7461400747872739328-KcNX?

Wind and solar won EVERY contract in the province’s latest energy auction — because they’re the lowest-cost options available.

With electricity needs projected to rise sharply, competitively procured renewables — paired with storage — can provide affordable, reliable power in the near term while longer-term projects come online.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/05/08/opinion/ontario-renewable-power-wind-solar-auction-wins

Over the last 6 months, CPI inflation has averaged +0.4% on a MoM basis, with March and April readings as high as +0.9% and +0.6%, respectively.

If this trend continues, this puts YoY inflation on pace to surge to +5.2% by the November midterms.

That would be the highest level since February 2023 and more than double the February 2026 print.

Even if monthly inflation prints ease to +0.3%, the YoY inflation rate would still rise to +4.4%, the highest since April 2023.

Inflation is back in full swing. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2056387956907126958

Pakistan: solar just overtook coal as the largest single source of electricity.

21% of power from solar in 2025. Up from 2% in 2019.

Coal peaked at 20% in 2020.

Solar, wind, and storage are absolutely dwarfing fossil fuels and nuclear...

To put this in perspective: China alone installed 415 GW of solar in 2025. That single country's solar installations in one year exceeded the entire cumulative capacity of every operational nuclear reactor on Earth combined (~376 GW).

Financial Times: BYD expects that flash charging will enable EVs to fully compete with gasoline cars by reducing charging time to just five minutes. To realize its expansion goals, BYD plans to build 20,000 fast chargers in China and 6,000 internationally (with 3,000 in the EU) in the upcoming year. BYD is also planning to build a third car manufacturing plant in Europe. https://www.ft.com/content/ce9a2318-287c-4c07-89ae-3d8582ed5501?syn-25a6b1a6=1

To put this in perspective: China alone installed 415 GW of solar in 2025. That single country's solar installations in one year exceeded the entire cumulative capacity of every operational nuclear reactor on Earth combined (~376 GW).

A massive new global study completely demolishes fossil fuels and nuclear power. The economics just flipped: a brand-new report from IRENA proves that building firm, round-the-clock solar-plus-storage from scratch is now actively cheaper than just buying the fuel to keep an existing, fully paid-off gas or coal plant running. Since 2010, battery costs have crashed by 93% and solar by 87%, bringing the price of 24/7 hybrid power down to $54–$82/MWh—decisively undercutting fossil fuels. This completely changes the game. Historically, old fossil plants were a cheap, stubborn baseline because their capital costs were already paid off. Now that zero-marginal-cost solar backed by cheap batteries is undercutting their literal fuel floors, sticking with gas isn't saving anyone money—it's what's actually going to inflate consumers' bills. This isn't a luxury tax for the environment; it's basic economics eating fossil fuels for dinner.

IRENA Report Says 24/7 Solar And Wind Power Now Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels - SolarQuarter https://solarquarter.com/2026/05/07/irena-report-says-24-7-solar-and-wind-power-now-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels/#:~:text=Since%202010%2C%20the%20installation%20cost,93%25%20during%20the%20same%20period.

In March 2026, renewables officially beat natural gas to become the largest source of electricity generation on the U.S. grid for the first time in history (35% to 34.4%). Meanwhile, Texas is plugging in a massive 12.9 GW of grid batteries this year alone, capturing 53% of the entire U.S. pipeline, to eat legacy gas margins for breakfast

In California, batteries just smashed records, meeting 44.1% of evening peak demand and physically evicting gas peakers from the grid

In China, firm, 24/7 solar + storage is already delivering round-the-clock electricity at a record cost floor of $30/MWh. Compare that to new gas-fired generation at well over $100/MWh. Gas is dead on arrival

In the UK, Germany, and Spain, building a brand-new wind + storage asset from scratch is now cheaper than simply paying for the fuel and maintenance of an existing, already-built gas or coal plant. In Germany, 24/7 firm onshore wind is delivering at $91/MWh, making new gas options (>$100/MWh) look like an expensive 20th-century liability

Countries still building gas plants or signing 20-year LNG import contracts, are signing a national security suicide note and managing a structural bankruptcy

Gas power is going through a slow death to near-zero by 2035 (latest). Save this post. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/renewables-beat-natural-gas-us-grid-march-2026

For decades peaking gas remained supreme in Queensland’s peak demand periods, adding revenue cream to the country’s most coal dependent grid by switching on as demand surged, particularly in the evening peak.

Queensland, in fact, was the country’s largest gas-generating state, as well as being its most coal dependent.
Then along came battery storage.

As the first big batteries came on line, they started to nibble into the evening peak. Then, as numbers grew, they ate more and more of the peaking gas generators’ party mix until – in March and April this year – they have pretty much eaten the whole lot.

The graph below illustrates how.

It’s a spectacular change in such a short period of time. And significant too, because so many forcecast are based around the assumption that gas is essential for balancing out the grid, and is being used as justification by state governments to open up new regions for gas exploration.

Gas generation will play a role in the future, renewables dominated grid, but it will rapidly diminish and likely focus on seasonal lulls in wind and solar generation, rather than daily variations 

https://reneweconomy.com.au/big-batteries-took-a-bite-out-of-gas-generators-evening-peak-party-then-they-ate-the-whole-dinner/

BREAKING: The UK's 30Y Government Bond Yield surges to 5.85%, its highest level since March 1998.

Renewable generation surpassed coal globally in 2025. As a result, coal accounted for LESS THAN A THIRD of global electricity for the first time

China and India recorded the largest fall in coal generation, while US coal rose to replace gas-fired electricity.

https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/global-electricity-review-2026/