r/peakoil

Southeast Asia is tracking toward a comprehensive, structural wipeout of internal combustion engines by 2030 (2024> 2025> 2026 data and> 2030 projections):
Singapore: 34%> 46% > 60%> 98%+
Viet Nam: 20%> 40%> 45%> 90%+
Thailand 13%> 20%> 35%> 80%+
Indonesia 7%> 15%> 70%+

https://x.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/2057464845671502313/photo/1

The incredible pace of this Southeast Asian EV boom was achieved at remarkable speed using highly efficient lithium-ion and LFP batteries, which acted as absolute workhorses to establish these baseline trends. This tech performed flawlessly, dropping average pack costs and proving that electric vehicles could easily win the market using existing manufacturing baselines.

But what is hitting the market today and filling the development pipeline is so much better it completely resets the industry's performance ceiling. Major breakthroughs like sodium-ion batteries are entering mass production right now to solve real-world pain points, maintaining massive power delivery even in extreme, sub-zero cold where older chemistries struggle. At the same time, rapid innovations in cell design and next-gen solid-state tech are pushing energy densities up to 400–600 Wh/kg, effectively blasting standard vehicle ranges past 1,000 kilometers per charge. Paired with newly commercialized megawatt-level flash charging that can top off a battery from 10% to 70% in just five minutes, these scaling innovations are driving down assembly complexities and triggering an unprecedented cost collapse that leaves gas-powered vehicles completely obsolete.

This graphic shows how solar beat the IEA’s 2015 forecast for 2025 by 1,800%.

Back then, the IEA expected the world to add about 34 GW of solar each year through to 2040. In 2025, the world added almost 650 GW.

As for solar generation, that reached almost 2,800 TWh in 2025, about as much electricity as the EU consumes in a year. That helped clean power meet all new electricity demand growth globally and nudged fossil generation into decline.

The story implicit in this graphic is that #solar behaves more like semiconductors than fossil fuels. As manufacturing scales, costs fall. Every doubling of global cumulative solar capacity has historically reduced costs by about 20%.

It also explores the 'killer app' of the transition: solar + batteries. As Ember puts it, 'the accelerating build-out of solar power is increasingly taking place alongside battery storage deployment, enabling the next paradigm shift – from daytime solar to anytime solar..'

Full infographic and write-up: https://www.climatetrunk.com/infographics/the-sun-has-won

To put this in perspective: China alone installed 415 GW of solar in 2025. That single country's solar installations in one year exceeded the entire cumulative capacity of every operational nuclear reactor on Earth combined (~376 GW).

Petrol cars will, very soon, be for museums only. No wonder petrostates are desperately starting oil wars.

Wild how off the mark the IEA has been: In 2019, they thought we'd barely hit a 5% share by now Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026

And this amazing innovation has not hit the market yet, this battery will last 100 years:

261 Wh/kg & 20,000 Cycles — VW's Secret Weapon Is a Sodium-Ion Battery

"Volkswagen is reportedly developing a next-generation sodium-ion battery with an energy density of 261 Wh/kg and an incredible lifespan of up to 20,000 charge cycles, potentially making it one of the most durable EV batteries ever created. The technology could dramatically reduce battery costs, improve cold-weather reliability, and lessen dependence on expensive materials like lithium and cobalt, signaling a major shift in the future EV market."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i12FYaF7a_Y

Wind and solar won EVERY contract in the province’s latest energy auction — because they’re the lowest-cost options available.

With electricity needs projected to rise sharply, competitively procured renewables — paired with storage — can provide affordable, reliable power in the near term while longer-term projects come online.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2026/05/08/opinion/ontario-renewable-power-wind-solar-auction-wins