u/earningsBITDA

Good people of the Lynchburg area! I’m going to attempt to start a monthly post showing recent home sales in LYH (+ 10ish miles outside of town). In each post i’m going to list good deals, bad deals, and recent sales that must have been purchased by someone who relocated to LYH from another area. Hope you enjoy!

Three good deals:

1. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4634-Fieldale-Rd-Lynchburg-VA-24503/79148243\_zpid/
   Nice neighborhood, updated home with over 3,000 sq ft and five bedrooms. Turn key, great price!

2. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3430-Summerville-St-Lynchburg-VA-24503/79163391\_zpid/
   Great neighborhood, nice sized brick home with curb appeal. Needs some TLC in the kitchen and a bathroom but for the price, great buy!

3. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2831-Sedgewick-Dr-Lynchburg-VA-24503/217067332\_zpid/
   The final good deal might shock you because the sale price was $667,000 ($183 per sq ft) but the home is new, sits on 3+ acres in the city, has a garage and over 3,600 sq ft! Wait till you see what some of these bad deal new builds with half the sq ft sold for.

Four Bad Deals:

1. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/117-Craftsman-Way-Lynchburg-VA-24503/241988101\_zpid/
   3 bed 2 bath less than 2,000 sq ft and over half a million!! The home sits on a 0.18 acre lot off a main road too. Perhaps a retired person wanted to down size and had too much money? Only they will know!

2. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3476-Ivylink-Pl-Lynchburg-VA-24503/333731745\_zpid/
   For almost the same price as deal number 3 above, you could buy less Sq ft, less acres, a house with no basement (built on slab) and less everything! But it is new!

3. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/111-Courtney-Springs-Dr-Lynchburg-VA-24503/351996892\_zpid/
   Another new construction. 3 bed 3 bath 2,000 sq ft. Comes out to $263 a sq ft. Sits on 0.19 acres. The home only has one gathering place which is the kitchen/living area. No basement, no dinning room, no significant foyer. Maybe an older person who is looking to downsize?

4. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/95-Melissa-Ln-Lynchburg-VA-24502/2053658960\_zpid/
   These condos are actively listed for sale for $250,000….there are 5+ for sale at this price. Why did someone pay $40,000 more?

Moved In From Out of Town:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1079-High-Oaks-Dr-Forest-VA-24551/456953240\_zpid/
At $291 a sq ft on 0.8 acres sitting on a slab, this one wins the worst deal for your money. But it is new!

And last, this cant be real. There is no way anyone could let this piece of property sell for $900,000. I hope this is a typo.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1154-Titleist-Dr-Forest-VA-24551/442252188\_zpid/

The largest reason LYH has seen a rise in single family home prices is because of folks who move here from areas with higher standard of living. Folks will see a sale price and think what that property will cost in the area they just moved from and make an emotional decision not based on any facts. If the buyer had researched comps and price per square foot, they would realize the negotiating power they had. Most of these buyers have the ability to afford these homes because underwriting requirements are firm so unfortunately I dont expect a “crash”. However, correction is likely because interest rates are not expected to decrease, less folks can work remote, and LYH is seeing an oversupply of housing that will only increase as the boomer generation start to die. (Contrary to the folks who convinced city council we need more housing). It appears the correction is hitting new construction the hardest. Builders might start to be priced out of LYH as the cost to build is too close to the sale prices for some of these homes. A few real life examples in LYH. I hope folks do their research before making an offer on home in LYH:

House 1: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1660-Trents-Ferry-Rd-Lynchburg-VA-24503/463759064\_zpid/
A new construction.

House 2: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1204-Audubon-Dr-Lynchburg-VA-24503/463798513\_zpid/
A new construction.

House 3: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1033-Ivy-Woods-Dr-Forest-VA-24551/462542123\_zpid/

The cost to build a home is the same in Cville or LYH. The materials cost the same. We know Cville homes cost more. Does this mean some builders are being priced out of building homes in LYH because the cost is too close to what the market sale price is?

Most of the US is still experiencing unrealistic single family home prices, central VA included. Unfortunately, I dont think there will be a “crash” similar to 08 because the underwriting requirements ensure borrowers can actually afford these homes and their Debt to Income is satisfactory. However, the appraisers are asleep at the wheel. They are using comps that are no where close to the subject property and inflating the values. This is because a home almost always appraises around what the purchase price is. What someone will pay for a home is 90% an emotional decision and has very little hard data involved with their decision.

Example, people will move from one geographic area that is 200+ miles from the new spot where they are buying a home and because the standard of living in the new area is lower, they will overpay for homes. This decision isn’t logical because if the buyer had reviewed comps and price per square foot, they would realize they are overpaying. Even if the buyer has enough to pay cash for the purchase, no one wants to overpay for anything. These homes that are being overpaid for are not selling quickly also. They usually sit for months because the folks local to the area know they are overpriced. Hence, the buyer could negotiate the PP significantly. This means, the buyer is making an emotional decision and not a logical one.

Real life example:

Home 1: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1660-Trents-Ferry-Rd-Lynchburg-VA-24503/463759064\_zpid/

Home 2: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4768-John-Scott-Dr-Lynchburg-VA-24503/79149106\_zpid/

Home one is a new construction less than a mile away from home 2. Home one is smaller, sits on less land, and sits on a main road. Home one is overpriced and has sat for over a month. Home two beats home one on almost every data point when looking for a house. However, some buyer from out of state will find home one and feel something about why they like this home and eventually purchase it.

In conclusion, I believe the price a buyer is willing to pay is 90% emotional and 10% logical.

Hello good people of Roanoke! I’m doing market research on mid size VA cities and would like to get the peoples opinion on a few topics/questions:
- Do you think Roanoke job opportunities offer a diverse industry pool or are they too concentrated in a certain industry?
- What would you say are the top industries for jobs in Roanoke MSA (City and counties)
- Do you think the job market is growing, staying constant or, or shrinking and Why?

For example, Lynchburg MSA is about 50,000 less than Roanoke MSA and shows top industries in Nuclear Energy, Higher Education, Healthcare, and various insurance jobs.