u/fenghuang1

Why Nvidia's revenue will outgrow Hyperscalers (GOOG, AMZN, MSFT) capex spending

Please refer to the question asked in the Earnings Call on 20 May 2026 by Ben Reitzes with Melius Research and listen to Jensen's reply.

Ben Reitzes

>Hey, guys. Thank you so much. I wanted to ask Jensen, I want to ask you about your philosophy on growth. Your data center business, ex China, grew about 120% in the quarter, and then you're guiding about 100%. CapEx at the hyperscalers is forecast by many, including myself, to grow 90%-100% this year. You talked about data center still on track to be $3 trillion-$4 trillion by the end of the decade. I was just wondering, is the goal for the company to grow faster than hyperscaler CapEx? Are you comfortable in kind of endorsing that view? Do you still see hyperscaler CapEx still growing after this year at a very rapid clip? Thanks a lot.

Jensen Huang

>Yeah. Thanks, Ben. First of all, we should be growing faster than hyperscale CapEx. The reason for that is illustrated by the segmentation that I just described. Our data center business has 2 large parts. It has more parts than that, but we combined it into 2 large parts for simplicity's sake. It's much more complex than the 2 large parts, but I combined it into 2 so that it's at least easier to understand. Okay. If you look at the first part is hyperscalers. That's the hyperscale CapEx that you were just talking about. They're $1 trillion this year. I have every expectation it's going to grow from here for fundamentally good reasons. This is the way computing is going to work in the future. If they don't have the compute, they won't have the revenues.

>It is very clear. Compute is revenues. Compute is profit. The world is changing. SaaS didn't use to use as much compute, but AI requires a tremendous amount of compute. You could do, of course, incredibly more, which is the reason why we heard about the frontier AI companies, both Anthropic and OpenAI, growing at an incredible pace. The fact that they can grow within 1 month what some of the SaaS companies would have taken 1 decade to grow tells you something. The first category is hyperscale, and the CapEx is at $1 trillion and it's growing towards $3 trillion-$4 trillion. The second category is all of the AI native clouds. They're regional. They're all over the place. There are startups all over the world supporting those companies. They're enterprise, 250,000 enterprise companies around the world.

>Many of them will have to build or want to build AI factories for themselves to operate. Many industrial companies, there's no choice but to put the computer where the context is, where the action is. You can't put that in the cloud. It has to respond reliably, quickly, every single time. Can't imagine a chip plant, a chip fab being connected to a cloud service provider. Doesn't make any sense. The second category, and then sovereign AI clouds. There's a whole category of data centers that semi-custom chips just don't apply because these data centers want to buy systems, they want to operate systems. They don't want to design, they don't want to build it themselves. The second category is extremely diverse.

>Instead of five or six, seven companies representing the revenues associated with our first category, the second category is hundreds, thousands of companies, and in the future, it'll be hundreds of thousands of companies with a large number of companies with smaller installations. That category is going to continue to grow at incredible pace. This second category, when I talk about physical AI, and I talk about how the rest of the $100 trillion industry that has not been impacted by IT in the last 30 years, it's about to be impacted by AI. That is the segment that I'm talking about. The second cluster is growing incredibly fast. Our share of that, of course, is very large. We're fairly unique in our ability to be able to serve this industry. Our platform is built like it's vertically integrated so that everything works.

>We disassemble it so that people can build and buy it in the configuration they want and assemble it the way they like. This second category is fairly poorly understood because there are just so many small companies, or so many companies, and each one of the installations are relatively small compared to, of course, one of the hyperscalers. If you look at the segmentation and the size of each, you could see that in fact, we're growing share in the hyperscalers because we now have much bigger support from Anthropic, a new partner of ours, and we're helping them expand their capacity greatly in the coming years. The second, very few companies have exposure into the second category because of the platform solution that we have.

reddit.com
u/fenghuang1 — 2 hours ago

The New Analyst Loop for Amulet Titan featuring Sylvan Safekeeper/Zuran Orb

I'll keep it short. This is how I will be looping Analyst going forward.

The setup:
5 lands (any),
1 Amulet effect,
1 Sacrifice outlet (Sylvan Safekeeper/Zuran Orb)
1 Scapeshift

The key numbers are 9 and 17 mana.

Steps:

  1. Play Scapeshift, sacrifice 5 lands. Search for 4 bouncelands/Vestige and 1 Tolaria West.
  2. Tap for 9 mana. Return the Tolaria West to hand. Sacrifice the 4 lands to Safekeeper targeting itself or the Zuran Orb.
  3. Use 3 mana to transmute for Summoner's Pact. Pact for Aftermath Analyst. Play Analyst, return the 10 lands (5 from before, 4 bouncelands/vestige, 1 Tolaria West). Total mana upon Analyst activation: 0
  4. At this point, there is 9 mana from the 4 bouncelands+west and minimum 5 mana from the 5 (any) lands. So tap for 14 mana total. Bounce the Tolaria West again. If Zuran Orb, sacrifice all lands after tapping for mana.
  5. Transmute for Pact (3 mana). Pact for Primeval Titan. Titan (6 mana) for 1 bounceland/vestige + 1 Shifting Woodland. Leftover: 5 mana.
  6. Tap the Titaned lands for 3 mana. Total: 8 mana. Sac unnecessary lands except Woodland.
  7. Use 4 mana to Woodland (remember to tap it for mana first before reanimating). Use 4 mana to sacrifice Woodland Analyst and bring back all the lands.

You now have infinite mana and Tolaria West can transmute for a cycling land (Tranquil Thicket or a Triome).

Draw your whole deck. Play Grazers, land the Mirrorpool and Battlements Haste etc.

If going for the Safekeeper line,
At step 2, Safekeeper targets itself on stack to sacrifice all the lands.
At step 5, there is a need to target another creature for sacrificing as Safekeeper now has shroud. This would not be a problem if there's an Arboreal Grazer/Saga Construct on board for you to target or if you had 6 lands and 1 of the lands is a Dryad Arbor (cannot tap for mana when returned via Analyst).
At step 6/7, tap for mana and activate the Woodland to reanimate Analyst first. Then use the Safekeeper ability to target Woodland Analyst and sacrifice all the lands. Then use Woodland Analyst ability to bring back the lands.
After step 7, when all the lands are brought back, be aware that you need to hit Delirium again to activate Woodland and this means you have target the Primeval Titan with Safekeeper ability and then ON THE STACK, activate Woodland into Analyst, get your infinite mana, continue targeting Primeval Titan to sacrifice all the lands each time, until you're done.
Then you can Tolaria West for a cycling land, and this time around, because you can cycle a land, you always have Delirium from the land type, and you can therefore activate Woodland Analyst further and target it with Safekeeper.

I will be stuffing in 1 Sylvan Safekeeper, 1 Zuran Orb, and definitely running 4 Green Sun's Zenith in order to find the Safekeeper and have consistent sacrifice land outlet.

Sorry for the word dump, but this is as short as I can go.

reddit.com
u/fenghuang1 — 3 days ago

US clears H200 chip sales to 10 China firms as Nvidia CEO looks for breakthrough

May 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. has cleared around 10 Chinese firms to buy Nvidia's second-most powerful AI chip, the H200, but not ​a single delivery has been made so far, three people familiar with the matter said, leaving a major technology deal in limbo as CEO Jensen Huang seeks a breakthrough ‌in China this week.

Huang, who was not initially listed in a White House delegation to Beijing, joined the trip after an invitation from President Donald Trump, a source said. Trump picked him up in Alaska en route to a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, raising hopes the trip could finally unlock stalled efforts to sell the H200 chips in China.

The stakes are significant, highlighting how the U.S.-China tech rivalry is now snarling even approved trade, leaving the world's most valuable company and dominant ​chipmaker caught between dueling national priorities.

Before U.S. export curbs tightened, Nvidia commanded about 95% of China’s advanced chip market. China once accounted for 13% of its revenue, and Huang has previously ​estimated the country's AI market alone would be worth $50 billion this year.

The U.S. Commerce Department has approved around 10 Chinese companies including Alibaba (9988.HK), Tencent (0700.HK), ByteDance and JD.com (9618.HK) ⁠to purchase Nvidia's (NVDA.O) H200 chips, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

A handful of distributors including Lenovo (0992.HK) and Foxconn (2317.TW) have also been approved, they ​said. Buyers are permitted to purchase either directly from Nvidia or through those intermediaries and each approved customer can purchase up to 75,000 chips under the U.S. licensing terms, two of them said.

The identities of the ​approved buyers, and the nature of their relationships with Nvidia and the authorized distributors involving the coveted AI chip, have not been previously reported.

A spokeswoman for the U.S. Department of Commerce, which oversees export controls like those on H200 semiconductors, declined comment.

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission did not respond to requests for comment.

Lenovo confirmed in a statement to Reuters that the company "is one of several companies approved to sell H200 in China as ​part of Nvidia's export license."

Nvidia, Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com and Foxconn did not respond to requests for comment.

Huang told state broadcaster CCTV on Thursday that he hoped Trump and Xi would build on their good relationship ​during talks in Beijing to improve two-way ties.

NO SALES YET

Despite U.S. approval, deals have stalled, as Chinese firms pulled back after guidance from Beijing, one source said.

The shift in China was partly triggered by changes on the U.S. side, ‌though exactly ⁠what changed remains unclear, the person added.

In Beijing, pressure is mounting to block or tightly vet the orders, a separate fourth source said.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick echoed that view, telling a Senate hearing last month that "the Chinese central government has not let them, as of yet, buy the chips, because they're trying to keep their investment focused on their own domestic industry."

Beijing's hesitation reflects a strategic calculation, as it fears imports could weaken a push to develop homegrown AI chips. While China's AI chips still lag Nvidia, firms like DeepSeek increasingly tout their reliance on domestic chips including those developed by Huawei.

Their pivot to Huawei underscores Nvidia's precarious position in China. ​Huang has warned that U.S. export controls are ​eroding the company's foothold in the market, saying ⁠its share of AI accelerators in China has effectively fallen to zero.

THORNY CONDITIONS

The path to a completed sale has been obstructed by a tangle of requirements on both sides. U.S. rules issued in January require Chinese buyers to demonstrate they had installed "sufficient security procedures" and would not use the chips for military purposes.

Nvidia ​must also certify sufficient inventory in the United States.

Trump negotiated an arrangement under which the U.S. would receive 25% of the revenue from the chip sales — ​a structure that requires the ⁠chips to pass through U.S. territory before being shipped to China, as U.S. law does not permit the direct imposition of export fees.

The arrangement has prompted unease in Beijing over potential tampering or hidden vulnerabilities, even as sources describe it primarily as a workaround to legal constraints.

Scrutiny in China has also intensified after the State Council issued two recent supply chain security regulations, prompting a government-wide effort to identify and eliminate potential foreign dependencies in ⁠critical technology infrastructure, ​the fourth source said.

The continued delay has been welcomed by China hardliners in Washington, who dismiss Trump administration claims that such ​sales would deter Chinese rivals from closing the gap with U.S. chip designers.

"Any deal that allows Nvidia to sell more chips to China means fewer Nvidia chips for U.S. firms, and a smaller U.S. lead in AI over China," said Chris McGuire, senior fellow ​for China and emerging technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"It is remarkable that President Trump keeps getting convinced to put Nvidia’s interest ahead of America’s."

Reporting by Reuters staff; Editing by Miyoung Kim and Shri Navaratnam

reuters.com
u/fenghuang1 — 9 days ago
▲ 97 r/NvidiaStock+1 crossposts

Trump directly disputes CNBC's reporting about Jensen Huang's invitation

u/fenghuang1 — 9 days ago