Why Nvidia's revenue will outgrow Hyperscalers (GOOG, AMZN, MSFT) capex spending
Please refer to the question asked in the Earnings Call on 20 May 2026 by Ben Reitzes with Melius Research and listen to Jensen's reply.
Ben Reitzes
>Hey, guys. Thank you so much. I wanted to ask Jensen, I want to ask you about your philosophy on growth. Your data center business, ex China, grew about 120% in the quarter, and then you're guiding about 100%. CapEx at the hyperscalers is forecast by many, including myself, to grow 90%-100% this year. You talked about data center still on track to be $3 trillion-$4 trillion by the end of the decade. I was just wondering, is the goal for the company to grow faster than hyperscaler CapEx? Are you comfortable in kind of endorsing that view? Do you still see hyperscaler CapEx still growing after this year at a very rapid clip? Thanks a lot.
Jensen Huang
>Yeah. Thanks, Ben. First of all, we should be growing faster than hyperscale CapEx. The reason for that is illustrated by the segmentation that I just described. Our data center business has 2 large parts. It has more parts than that, but we combined it into 2 large parts for simplicity's sake. It's much more complex than the 2 large parts, but I combined it into 2 so that it's at least easier to understand. Okay. If you look at the first part is hyperscalers. That's the hyperscale CapEx that you were just talking about. They're $1 trillion this year. I have every expectation it's going to grow from here for fundamentally good reasons. This is the way computing is going to work in the future. If they don't have the compute, they won't have the revenues.
>It is very clear. Compute is revenues. Compute is profit. The world is changing. SaaS didn't use to use as much compute, but AI requires a tremendous amount of compute. You could do, of course, incredibly more, which is the reason why we heard about the frontier AI companies, both Anthropic and OpenAI, growing at an incredible pace. The fact that they can grow within 1 month what some of the SaaS companies would have taken 1 decade to grow tells you something. The first category is hyperscale, and the CapEx is at $1 trillion and it's growing towards $3 trillion-$4 trillion. The second category is all of the AI native clouds. They're regional. They're all over the place. There are startups all over the world supporting those companies. They're enterprise, 250,000 enterprise companies around the world.
>Many of them will have to build or want to build AI factories for themselves to operate. Many industrial companies, there's no choice but to put the computer where the context is, where the action is. You can't put that in the cloud. It has to respond reliably, quickly, every single time. Can't imagine a chip plant, a chip fab being connected to a cloud service provider. Doesn't make any sense. The second category, and then sovereign AI clouds. There's a whole category of data centers that semi-custom chips just don't apply because these data centers want to buy systems, they want to operate systems. They don't want to design, they don't want to build it themselves. The second category is extremely diverse.
>Instead of five or six, seven companies representing the revenues associated with our first category, the second category is hundreds, thousands of companies, and in the future, it'll be hundreds of thousands of companies with a large number of companies with smaller installations. That category is going to continue to grow at incredible pace. This second category, when I talk about physical AI, and I talk about how the rest of the $100 trillion industry that has not been impacted by IT in the last 30 years, it's about to be impacted by AI. That is the segment that I'm talking about. The second cluster is growing incredibly fast. Our share of that, of course, is very large. We're fairly unique in our ability to be able to serve this industry. Our platform is built like it's vertically integrated so that everything works.
>We disassemble it so that people can build and buy it in the configuration they want and assemble it the way they like. This second category is fairly poorly understood because there are just so many small companies, or so many companies, and each one of the installations are relatively small compared to, of course, one of the hyperscalers. If you look at the segmentation and the size of each, you could see that in fact, we're growing share in the hyperscalers because we now have much bigger support from Anthropic, a new partner of ours, and we're helping them expand their capacity greatly in the coming years. The second, very few companies have exposure into the second category because of the platform solution that we have.