My theory on how the episodes will go
Given that we will only probably have 23 episodes, this is how I think the episodes will go.
I also listed the stars of destinies that will be recruited.
Two big assumptions:
The SOD's are the people included in the last frame of the ending credits
That the first cour (eps 1 to 11) will be until Greenhill, since Teresa and Shin are in the frame.
| Events | SOD | |
|---|---|---|
| Ep 1 | Mercenary Fortress | Riliu, Nanami, Mukumuku, Tuta, Gengen |
| Ep 2 | Ryube and Toto burning, fall of merc fortress | Pilika, Apple, Tsai, Tomo, Zamza, Hanna, Kinnison, Shiro, Rikimaru |
| Ep 3 | Runes, white deer inn, and Muse | Alex, Hilda, Pete, Anita |
| Ep 4 | Reconnaisance mission and fall of Muse | Jess, Hauser |
| Ep 5 | Coronet, Kuskus, and South Window | Leona, Barbara, Viktor, Flik, Eilie, Rina, Bolgan, Tai Ho, Yam Koo, Oulan |
| Ep 6 | North Window and Recruiting Shu | Richmond, Shu, Freed Y., Amada, Yoshino, Stallion |
| Ep 7 | Battle with Solon Jhee and introduction of SOD's | Luc |
| Ep 8 | Kobold Village and Two River | Tetsu, Gabocha, Hix, Tengaar |
| Ep 9 | Battle for Two River | Ridley, Fitcher, Sid, Chaco |
| Ep 10 | Greenhill academy infiltration | Flying Squirrel Squadron, Meg, Gadget, Pico, Emilia, Jude, Jeane |
| Ep 11 | Rescue of Teresa | Teresa, Shin, Nina |
| Ep 12 | Going to Matilda and meeting Humphrey and Futch, Sacrifice of Muse | |
| Ep 13 | Flight from Matilda and first battle with Kiba | |
| Ep 14 | Defeat of Kiba, death of Agares, Sheena arrives | |
| Ep 15 | Alliance with Toran Republic | |
| Ep 15 | Capture of Ridley and defense of Dunan Castle | |
| Ep 16 | Night Raid | |
| Ep 17 | Night Raid | |
| Ep 18 | Tinto arc | |
| Ep 19 | Liberation of Greenhill and Muse, death of Kiba | |
| Ep 20 | Conquest of Matilda, Battle with Gorudo, Shu's Gambit | |
| Ep 21 | Battle of L'Renouille and Beast Rune | |
| Ep 22 | Duel at Tenzan Pass | |
| Ep 23 | Epilogue |
Major differences from the game
You heard it here first, Neclord will not be in the anime. And I like it to be that way. The Tinto arc was a major curveball and just out of place for me. We might still see a vampire in Sierra, but there won't be a vampire hunt arc. Kahn Marley is probably not an SOD. However, I will miss the Celestial Sword / Night Rune.
Pete, Pilika, and the four other flying squirrels will be SOD's, to replace others like Wakaba, Adlai, etc.
We'll have no zombieland arc in tinto, and most likely Jess and Hauser will join the group either during the fall of Muse, or that Jess's reconciliation with Riliu will happen during the South Window arc or after they win against Solon Jhee.
Since there's no Neclord, North Window is probably just a normal abandoned castle, and they will abandon Viktor's back story. Or use another reason why the place decayed
Notes:
The narrative seems tight since 23 episodes is a bit short. But I think by removing the Neclord-adjacent ones, the core emotional beats can still be covered while using narrative shortcuts to save time.
The total SOD's at this point in the anime is 58. At this point in the game, it should be around 64. So it's possible that some of the missing ones will appear in the second cour. My hunch is that the non-combatants like Hans, Hai Yo, and co. will appear when Luca is defeated and the lands feel "safer" for these civilians
Notable missing from the frame for me would be Clive, Hai Yo, and Huan