
Where do the minutes go?
The minutes-per-game in the image were pulled from basketball reference.
By position most played, I'd expect something this coming season along the lines of:
C:
Poeltl 20
CMB 30 (of which half C, half PF)
No one else majority minutes at C
PF:
Scottie 33 (of which 5-8 at C)
SF:
Kawhi 28
Jamison 20
Kyle Anderson 8
SG:
RJ 33
Ja'kobe 25
PG:
Quick 30 (of which some at SG)
Shead 25+
First: numbers don't total 48 per position. Minutes are averaged only for games players play in, so totals would end up higher anyway.
Just looking at numbers:
- Kawhi's 28 is probably too much load management, but I couldn't bring myself to put him higher in the regular season.
- Jakob's 20 is only 5 minutes per game down from last season.
- A lot of minutes that were spread among our bench boys move to the survivors of our youth movement. Gradey, Ochai, Mogbo and Sandro minutes head mostly to CMB, Jamison, Ja'kobe and Shead.
If this minutes breakdown ends up anything near reality, I see slightly better 3-point shooters popping up in more minutes next season across the board.
I'm particularly interested in the effects of Kawhi's gravity on offence - does Scottie get more space and maybe an extra tenth of a second to execute his decisions with the ball in his hands? Do 3-point shooters get incrementally better?
On defence, having a true C on court less than half the time means defence by swarm. A C feels less important in minutes where Kawhi/Scottie/CMB perform the dance of aggressive windmills. I look forward to seeing plays where our defence frustrates opponents and then rubs salt in the wounds in transition offence after. Opposing timeouts after such exchanges will taste like victory.
Am I giving too few minutes to anyone? Too many to anyone? Shead's minutes might deserve to grow more based on last season, but with what our defence will bring, I picture reliable offence driving more growth in minutes. What do you see?