u/greyenlightenment

Including dividends, BITI has tracked the inverse of bitcoin perfectly. BITI is the best hedge against a market correction.

Bitcoin is much weaker than tech stocks on the upside and falls much more on downside. So if QQQ was to to rise 5% , bitcoin would maybe only go up 1%. OTOH, if QQQ falls 1% bitcoin easily falls 5%. Bitcoin also dumps really hard on bad geopolitical news, whereas QQQ falls much less, and QQQ rebounds much faster. This makes BITI better than TMF, because it hedges everything much more reliably, whereas TMF has inflation risk.

So I would do something like:

66% QQQ and 34% BITI

I am running something similar to this now.

go ahead and backtest. worked great in 2025-2026

Bitcoin is dying due to AI being much more profitable and better and threat of quantum computer. Plus, no Bitcoin reserve and Trump abandoned support for Bitcoin after taking donor money. Finally, Saylor announced he will sell Bitcoin to prop up his ponzi scheme, putting more pressure on BTC. All of these factors make bitcoin a great short as a hedge.

STRC pays out a 11% yield. Unlike bonds or yeildmax ETFs, it has much less economic/inflation risk. Of course, its risk is tied with MSTR/Bitcoin.

So combine STRC with bitcoin puts, BITI, or MSTR puts. The trade can be structured in such a way that you can profit if Bitcoin falls , but otherwise the downside of the puts is negated by the STRC payouts.

Saylor has said he will sell BTC to fund STRC dividends. So this puts downward pressure on both BTC and MSTR. MSTR falls as the value of BTC holdings falls, due to Saylor selling BTC to fund STRC.

So let's say you put 1/3 of your account in STRC and then some in Bitcoin/MSTR puts . You are getting free hedging , pretty much. If the market falls even a little bit, like 2025 or early 2026, Bitcoin will get clobbered, but STRC will be unaffected.

For example, let's say you have $216,000. You put $70,000 to buy STRC and $140,000 in SPY. The at-the-money IBIT put which expires in ~330 days costs ~$6.5. So you can buy 10 of these ($6,500) and this is covered by the yield on STRC. Regression analysis shows that a 10% decline in the SPY equals a 30-40% decline in BTC. So if IBIT is trading at $45 today, you will make ~$14k with this , which will hedge the $14k lost with the long SPY position, for free. This can be modified for leveraged products, too.

Even if inflation was to surge, which is bad for fixed income, Bitcoin will crash, as seen in 2022, so you will make money anyway. This method is a hedge against inflation , geopolitical uncertainty (e.g. China, Iran), tariffs, or recession. It also takes advantage Bitcoin being persistently weaker than tech stocks and capturing the downside by a factor of 3-5x when shorting to hedge, and much less or none of the upside, as seen in 2025 and first half of 2026.

Today this is paying off , as Bitcoin is down a lot and stocks are only down/flat. I am running something similar to this now by shorting bitcoin/mstr to hedge a tech portfolio.

STRC pays out a 11% yield. Unlike bonds or yeildmax ETFs, it has much less economic/inflation risk. Of course, its risk is tied with MSTR/Bitcoin.

So combine STRC with bitcoin puts, BITI, or MSTR puts. The trade can be structured in such a way that you can profit if Bitcoin falls , but otherwise the downside of the puts is negated by the STRC payouts.

Saylor has said he will sell BTC to fund STRC dividends. So this puts downward pressure on both BTC and MSTR. MSTR falls as the value of BTC holdings falls, due to Saylor selling BTC to fund STRC.

So let's say you put 25% of your account in STRC and then some in Bitcoin/MSTR puts . You are getting free hedging , pretty much. If the market falls even a little bit, like 2025 or early 2026, Bitcoin will get clobbered, but STRC will be unaffected.