u/hayl4bulb

Defence Holdings (£ALRT) has just officially secured a £226K annual contract with the UK MoD. This follows from an initial announcement last month from the government, and the project is now officially running.

This marks the first known contract and revenue generating project for DH, and to have that be with the government is a massive milestone. It validates them as a supplier of AI services to the government and defence industry.

Official government announcement / details

Now that they're officially part of national infrastructure, it opens up massive opportunity in the future, particularly for a company worth just £30M right now. Not to mention the incoming government's plans to ban Palantir from some public services potentially opening up further doors for them.

Thought I'd add this news here as an update on Defence Holdings (£ALRT). Whilst DH was already known to be partnering with Oracle, at their defence tech summit last week they confirmed further details of this partnership.

Oracle has committed to integrating Defence Holdings' new accelerator program into their defence ecosystem. Members of the Oracle Defence Ecosystem (which includes DH's partner company Whitespace) will have exclusive priority access to the accelerator program, incentivising them to join it.

The DH accelerator program is essentially a support system for defence start-ups. Companies that are picked will be given access to the resources, connections and experience of DH and its people, presumably in return for a share of future revenue from these start-ups. Whilst DH is a fairly new and small-scale company, their board is comprised of industry experts and defence veterans, and they've already demonstrated their influence with invitations to Downing Street, Nvidia events and a bespoke trial contract with the MoD. By giving other companies access to their USPs, they can monetise them outside of just their own company practices, and make money through other people's work.

For a company like Oracle to be partnering heavily with a company with a market cap under £30M, it screams confidence in DH's future.

I thought Event Cinema wasn't included with the limitless pass, but I just managed to book David Byrnes American Utopia (which is marked as event on the app) for free with a limitless ticket? Is that normal?

I've made enough posts here on Defence Holdings (ALRT), but I want to give an update on their operations as they've just come out of hibernation to announce a flurry of new information on their operations.

The quick run-down on DH: they're a new defence tech start-up headed by leaders in the UK software, military and AI sectors, who intend to create and acquire defence software for organisations and governments. They already have ties with hyperscalers like Google and Oracle, they've been invited to NATO events, they've had a meeting at 10 Downing Street (PM's house) to discuss AI defence systems. For a new start-up, the connections they have are crazy. They also confirmed development on a couple projects (Ixian and Edge) and have a 50/50 revenue split with their partner company Whitespace.

Management has been silent the past few months which led to understandable fear and a drop in the share price, but this past week they've come out to announce where they're at in terms of development:

• They're now working on around half a dozen different projects for clients
• They're under NDAs with these clients meaning they can't disclose much information about what they're developing
• They've expanded their outlook for clients from just the UK to NATO and other European countries
• These institutions and governments are the intended clientelle for their products
• They've signed on their first company for their accelerator program - which intends to distribute and integrate the defence tech of other companies for (presumably) a share of the revenue
• Their CEO (who joined recently) intends to make the company way more transparent and update shareholders regularly on operations

Along with developing their own tech, they're starting to act on the "holdings" part of their name, leveraging their government and hyperscaler connections to bring the tech of other companies into use - in return for a stake of the profits. As that part of the business grows, it could become a massive USP for them - particularly as what they offer, the strong connections and experience of the board, is difficult to replicate or earn for others.

The CEO shared a video recently addressing their current operational status and claimed they're in the final stages of contract procurement with multiple operators and that information about these (revenue) will be disclosed when possible (due to the NDA). When this info is shared, the stock price could see significant correction from the current £28M cap. The CEO also has warrants exercisable at certain thresholds, including 35M at a price of 6.9p - an almost 7x upside from the current price. He left his well-paying CEO role at another established tech firm for this, so he certainly sees some upside in this company.

After a painful wait caused by the government shutdown, Spectral AI (MDAI) has received FDA approval for it's DeepView imaging system, meaning their burn wound analysis machine can now be sold in their largest potential market.

Their foreward plans are to commercialise this system before expanding the tech to accommodate other things, such as diabetic foot ulcers.

This decision opens up potential government funding and contracts, potentially prominently in military use cases.

Can't wait to see how the future pans out with this company.

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cdrh/cfdocs/cfpmn/denovo.cfm?id=DEN250028

I wanted to make a final post about Amaze Holdings (AMZE) before tomorrow (the launch of Amaze Live and their Q1 earnings report) because I don't think the market comprehends the services Amaze is offering here.

What do I mean by this? Well, currently the company operates various unrelated businesses: TeeSpring (the merchandising website), TheFoodChannel, and an organic wine company. The roughly $8M market cap indicates they're being valued with just the value of these legacy businesses.

Additionally, they posted a $55M loss last year, which is being treated as a cost of operations. Truth is, most of this loss was caused by their merger with the wine business (which they did to become public quickly, presumably in time for the launch of their new services). This was mostly administritive costs and goodwill impairments. Their actual net margins, particularly as a SaaS business, will be far better than what it seems they were on paper last year.

This misjudgement still doesn't take into account their new services, which is where the real growth story is introduced. They are investing to become the biggest player in creator-customer commerce, offering an all-in-one platform to support influencers, content creators and small businesses create and market products online. To put into perspective what they seem to be building, their services will include:

• Multi-platform livestreaming (go live simultaneously on tiktok, instagram etc)
• Integrating products into the livestreams, allowing viewers to buy in seconds
• Integrating your own storefront (TeeSpring or Shopify) to sell your products via live streams
• Connecting brands directly to content creators (almost like a management middleman)
• An AI tool that analyses trends and engagement, and automatically creates products / designs based off these trends (likely by utilising TeeSpring's custom merchandising services)

Think of it like TikTok Shop meets Shopify - you can integrate your own store, have products automatically made for you, then livestream and sell them across all social platforms.

The CEO has said this new platform will be "very popular with mid-ranged brands", that "studios are already training their creators on Amaze Live" and has compared Amaze to where Amazon was when they were only selling books but investing in larger infrastructure.

The global livestream-selling market is expected to grow massively in the coming years. Predictions vary a lot - some say the industry is worth about $15B, others say $150B, others say in a few years it'll be worth $1-3T. A reported 58% of TikTok users have bought from the in-built store on the app. The market is not only massive, but is growing exponentially year-on-year (some estimates put it as 40+% a year).

The nature of a SaaS also means Amaze could quickly turn to profitability compared to many other growth companies. They're already operating with gross margins nearing 80% (Shopify's is about 48%) and net margins could eventually be as high as 10+%. To value a company with great margins, already doing millions in revenue a year, at such a low price shows the oppurtunity here.

TLDR; $8Mcap company is about to execute on it's investments and create, potentially, the leader in global live-ecommerce.

Amaze Holdings ($AMZE) has been mentioned here recently, but I thought I'd do a post going over the current risks and upsides, as it seems pretty interesting.

Note: $5M mcap, $0.13 share price. I currently hold about 1700 shares.

First, the worrying finances:

• Low cash - reported $2.9M EOY 2025 • Accumulated defitit of $85M • Multiple lawsuits - either lost or in progress - paying out over $1M long term • Possible future dilution (750k new shares authorized against current 100k) • 2025 net loss of $54M • Company expects continuing losses going forward

So financially, the company isn't doing great. However, there are upsides:

• Net loss largely brought on by costs of merger (including $35M goodwill impairment) • Gross profit margin last year of 75% • CEO buying shares • New service launch coming Friday, offering new revenue stream • Decent portfolio of brands (TheFoodChannel, Teespring, FreshVineWine)

Despite these brands, the core of Amaze is it's content-creator services. They create platforms to allow influencers to sell to customers more efficiently, such as Amaze Moments, which creates custom products to sell based on current trends. The thing I'm excited about however is Amaze Live; a service that connects content creators to brands, and allows them to livestream sales streams through multiple channels at once (like tiktok and Instagram). Social media teleshopping is a massively growing market and this taps into that perfectly.

What excites me even more is the CEO; he's a very open guy, particularly on Stocktwits and Twitter. He's thanked people for holding shares and been open about the struggles / future he envisions for the company. He's been buying shares at higher prices ($0.3 compared to the current $0.13 price) and has confirmed he and the board / employees are under a blackout until earnings, so he's been unable to buy more at current prices. He's also said Amaze Live will be "very popular with mid-range brands" and to anticipate future news.

The obvious risk here is that the company doesn't have the cash to continue operations and the "new programs" the CEO is teasing. However with the strong gross margins and reduced losses (inflated by the merger last year), they probably have much more runway then is expected. Amaze Live taps into a massive potential market and has already lined up 20 brands to partner with it, offering incentive to content creators to sign up. They have the foundations in place through partnerships with companies, strong employee numbers and a history of influencer partnerships on their other platforms.

IMO: Q1 earnings (CEO states it will drop around Tuesday) will be indicative of the future, as we'll see a clearer image of current margins. If insiders start buying after the blackout subsequently ends, it's a very strong signal that they're confident in the future. CEO claims "as soon as we file 10Q we will give a more formal update on progress, new product rollouts, overall performance and more". Friday's launch of Amaze Live will also give a better picture of the future.

TLDR; earnings Tuesday, CEO hyping future, $5M market cap, imminent new service launches offer massive potential market.

Recently a post popped up here going over SEGG, a company that's promising to launch a prediction market / sports betting platform. On this news, and an alleged partnership with Polymarket, the stock's more than doubled in a week. After digging into the company and its past, I've come to the conclusion that this is either the "next big thing", or a last ditch attempt for management to extract money from retail investors.

Disclosure: I hold like 100 shares, just in case

The Critique:

Now, you'd be mistaken when looking at the news that SEGG is some known sports or media brand that's now expanding into the prediction market industry. But they're way, way more diversified then that. Their current businesses (and planned acquisitions) include:

• A lottery ticket management app
• An events ticket sale website
• A Dubai e-sports brand
• A Dubai sports-entrepeneur-support-workplace-for-hire-thing
• A TV production company founded by a man charged for tax avoidance
• A sports community hub app thing?
• A youtube channel brand
• A sportswear brand

The list goes on. How they have the money to afford all these acquisitions, I've no clue. Their last financial report from September 2025 (they still haven't filed for Q4) states they had $300k cash on hand. Now, listed assets were valued at $70M, which seems good, but $30M of that is "intangible assets", and $14M is "prepaid assets". Intangible assets generally refers to things like the value of owned IP and brands.

Where are they getting a $30M brand value from? Yes, they own some valuable domain names (sports.com, concerts.com, lottery.com) but domain value checkers online put the total value of these at under $2M. It appears they're massively inflating the value of their brands and domain names.

Last August, the company was proud to announce the Sports[dot]com "Super App", which would combine live streams, sports betting, social media and all other aspects of sports in one app. Now while the sports[dot]com domain is currently a landing page for the upcoming prediction market, this "super app" is accessible at home[dot]sports[dot]com.

Go to this address. Or actually, go to any of their owned domains. It's like a portal to 15 years ago. The sites are poorly built, look outdated, and are filled with errors and dead links. The so-called "super app" site breaks whenever you click a button. To value these sites at $30M is just fraudulent.

Speaking of fraud, the company was previously involved in a case of fraud which ended with the company getting delisted, before coming back recently and changing it's name to SEGG. The management may have been reshuffled, but whether they've really improved (their Q4 filings for example) is debateable.

Going back to their cash - $300K is nothing. If they're actually launching a prediction market, it'll need serious backing to market it and get it known to the wider public. They can not afford to do that - and if it's anything like their "super app", it's going to be a complete flop. The Polymarket partnership may improve the quality of the service, sure; but actually getting people to use it will be a struggle. They're history of dilutions and share issuances isn't exactly promising, and they reported a negative gross-profit in their last report. Their net loss for the quarter was $4.4M, with cash of only $300K? How they survive, I don't know.

The Bull Case:

The bull case here is that the cash they get from their Veloce acquisition (which they project as $20M annual revenue) can justify the companies expenses and prop up the launch of the prediction market. Q3 2025 reports claimed $137k in revenue for SEGG, so a $5M increase per quarter would be massive. This acquisition was also paid largely with SEGG shares price at $10, so either SEGG got a massive bargain or management knows the stock is grossly undervalued (which they claim it is). However, they do claim in the acquisition report that the domain names are their most valuable assets, which is possible cause for concern. Regardless, it's a big shift in revenue.

It ultimately comes down to whether you believe:

a) they can execute on this prediction platform far, far better than their other endeavours

b) Veloce's profits can keep the company in the green

c) they can get their finances and filings in order

TLDR; company is either on the brink of a massive revenue spike, or is going to release yet another awful product and dilute into obscurity.