How Minnesota keeps neighbors installing rooftop solar from driving up the power bill of their non-solar neighbors
▲ 58 r/centerleftpolitics+3 crossposts

How Minnesota keeps neighbors installing rooftop solar from driving up the power bill of their non-solar neighbors

Although solar is being built out at breakneck speeds, 1-to-1 net metering is quietly functioning as a regressive tax on non-solar residents.

For context, utility providers don't actually make a profit off the raw electricity we consume, but rather on the physical infrastructure to deliver it. They typically bundle those two costs together into a flat per-kWh rate.

Under traditional "net metering," excess solar energy is sold back to the grid, allowing the resident to zero out their bill and dodge their share of those infrastructure costs. Those costs are then passed on to non-solar residents—often renters or lower-income folks—which naturally makes people sour on the green transition.

While states like Arkansas are fighting over this, Minnesota came up with a brilliant "Buy-All, Sell-All" model to fix it. I broke down how it works in my latest article here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/why-your-neighbors-solar-panels-might

u/holmess2013 — 4 days ago

Communism, social democracy, and democratic socialism: How they're different, and why social democracy is our best path forward

Hey guys. Feels like mainstream conservative media—from Fox News to the ghost of Rush Limbaugh—spends an exorbitant amount of airtime equating any government intervention with full-blown communism. I thought I'd take a crack at debunking that myth, although many have done a great job already.

If we actually want to fix the system without destroying the economic engine, we have to untangle three distinct ideas:

  • Communism (The State Economy): The government abolishes the free market and takes ownership of all factories, farms, and businesses. A centralized bureaucracy dictates everything. (Think Soviet Union).
  • Democratic Socialism (The Worker Economy): Keeps a market economy, but makes private business ownership illegal, forcing every company into a worker-owned cooperative. It sounds appealing, but it starves high-tech breakthroughs of the outside capital they need to scale.
  • Social Democracy (The Mixed Economy): This is what most modern progressives actually advocate for. You don't abolish capitalism. Private ownership remains the primary engine, but the government steps in to universally fund essential necessities—like healthcare and education. You put capitalism on a tight leash.

As for social democracy, we don't have to guess if it works in the real world—we just have to look at the Nordic model. Places like Norway, Denmark, and Sweden are living proof of social democracy in action. Critics love to claim that leashing capitalism like this will ruin our economy, or that these countries only succeed because they piggyback on American R&D. But the data tells a completely different story, especially when you look at what we're paying for basic necessities.

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PC.CD

In 2023, the U.S. spent an astronomical $13,473 per capita on healthcare. Norway spent $8,296. Denmark spent $6,510.

Critics argue our high prices fund global R&D or stem from unhealthier lifestyles, but Americans actually visit the doctor less often than our Nordic peers while paying massive markups for administrative waste.

You don't have to kill the economic engine to fix the exhaust.

Full breakdown here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/the-leash-not-the-cure-why-we-need

reddit.com
u/holmess2013 — 14 days ago

Communism, social democracy, and democratic socialism: How they're different, and why social democracy is our best path forward

Mainstream conservative media—from Fox News to the ghost of Rush Limbaugh—spends an exorbitant amount of airtime equating any government intervention with full-blown communism. I thought I'd take a crack at debunking that myth, although many have done a great job already.

If we actually want to fix the system without destroying the economic engine, we have to untangle three distinct ideas:

  • Communism (The State Economy): The government abolishes the free market and takes ownership of all factories, farms, and businesses. A centralized bureaucracy dictates everything. (Think Soviet Union).
  • Democratic Socialism (The Worker Economy): Keeps a market economy, but makes private business ownership illegal, forcing every company into a worker-owned cooperative. It sounds appealing, but it starves high-tech breakthroughs of the outside capital they need to scale.
  • Social Democracy (The Mixed Economy): This is what most modern progressives actually advocate for. You don't abolish capitalism. Private ownership remains the primary engine, but the government steps in to universally fund essential necessities—like healthcare and education. You put capitalism on a tight leash.

As for social democracy, we don't have to guess if it works in the real world—we just have to look at the Nordic model. Places like Norway, Denmark, and Sweden are living proof of social democracy in action. Critics love to claim that leashing capitalism like this will ruin our economy, or that these countries only succeed because they piggyback on American R&D. But the data tells a completely different story, especially when you look at what we're paying for basic necessities.

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PC.CD

In 2023, the U.S. spent an astronomical $13,473 per capita on healthcare. Norway spent $8,296. Denmark spent $6,510.

Critics argue our high prices fund global R&D or stem from unhealthier lifestyles, but Americans actually visit the doctor less often than our Nordic peers while paying massive markups for administrative waste.

You don't have to kill the economic engine to fix the exhaust.

Full breakdown here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/the-leash-not-the-cure-why-we-need

reddit.com
u/holmess2013 — 16 days ago

Communism, social democracy, and democratic socialism: How they're different, and why social democracy is our best path forward

Mainstream conservative media—from Fox News to the ghost of Rush Limbaugh—spends an exorbitant amount of airtime equating any government intervention with full-blown communism. I thought I'd take a crack at debunking that myth, although many have done a great job already.

If we actually want to fix the system without destroying the economic engine, we have to untangle three distinct ideas:

  • Communism (The State Economy): The government abolishes the free market and takes ownership of all factories, farms, and businesses. A centralized bureaucracy dictates everything. (Think Soviet Union).
  • Democratic Socialism (The Worker Economy): Keeps a market economy, but makes private business ownership illegal, forcing every company into a worker-owned cooperative. It sounds appealing, but it starves high-tech breakthroughs of the outside capital they need to scale.
  • Social Democracy (The Mixed Economy): This is what most modern progressives actually advocate for. You don't abolish capitalism. Private ownership remains the primary engine, but the government steps in to universally fund essential necessities—like healthcare and education. You put capitalism on a tight leash.

As for social democracy, we don't have to guess if it works in the real world—we just have to look at the Nordic model. Places like Norway, Denmark, and Sweden are living proof of social democracy in action. Critics love to claim that leashing capitalism like this will ruin our economy, or that these countries only succeed because they piggyback on American R&D. But the data tells a completely different story, especially when you look at what we're paying for basic necessities.

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PC.CD

In 2023, the U.S. spent an astronomical $13,473 per capita on healthcare. Norway spent $8,296. Denmark spent $6,510.

Critics argue our high prices fund global R&D or stem from unhealthier lifestyles, but Americans actually visit the doctor less often than our Nordic peers while paying massive markups for administrative waste.

You don't have to kill the economic engine to fix the exhaust.

Full breakdown here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/the-leash-not-the-cure-why-we-need

reddit.com
u/holmess2013 — 16 days ago

Communism, social democracy, and democratic socialism: How they're different, and why social democracy is our best path forward

Mainstream conservative media—from Fox News to the ghost of Rush Limbaugh—spends an exorbitant amount of airtime equating any government intervention with full-blown communism. I thought I'd take a crack at debunking that myth, although many have done a great job already.

If we actually want to fix the system without destroying the economic engine, we have to untangle three distinct ideas:

  • Communism (The State Economy): The government abolishes the free market and takes ownership of all factories, farms, and businesses. A centralized bureaucracy dictates everything. (Think Soviet Union).
  • Democratic Socialism (The Worker Economy): Keeps a market economy, but makes private business ownership illegal, forcing every company into a worker-owned cooperative. It sounds appealing, but it starves high-tech breakthroughs of the outside capital they need to scale.
  • Social Democracy (The Mixed Economy): This is what most modern progressives actually advocate for. You don't abolish capitalism. Private ownership remains the primary engine, but the government steps in to universally fund essential necessities—like healthcare and education. You put capitalism on a tight leash.

As for social democracy, we don't have to guess if it works in the real world—we just have to look at the Nordic model. Places like Norway, Denmark, and Sweden are living proof of social democracy in action. Critics love to claim that leashing capitalism like this will ruin our economy, or that these countries only succeed because they piggyback on American R&D. But the data tells a completely different story, especially when you look at what we're paying for basic necessities.

Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PC.CD

In 2023, the U.S. spent an astronomical $13,473 per capita on healthcare. Norway spent $8,296. Denmark spent $6,510.

Critics argue our high prices fund global R&D or stem from unhealthier lifestyles, but Americans actually visit the doctor less often than our Nordic peers while paying massive markups for administrative waste.

You don't have to kill the economic engine to fix the exhaust.

Full breakdown here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/the-leash-not-the-cure-why-we-need

reddit.com
u/holmess2013 — 16 days ago

Analyzing the decline of the "shy bigot" from 1997 - 2017

In this week's post, I looked at what list experiments have told us about the tendency of Americans to hide controversial opinions. The classic 1997 Kuklinski study showed that 23% of white southerners would hide their racial prejudices.

But does that "shy bigot" phenomenon hold up today?

When I compared that original study against a 2020 meta-analysis of data spanning the next 20 years, I found a massive divergence from the original findings. I went in assuming the tendency to be brazenly prejudiced was limited to the fringes, but the aggregate data tells a much more complicated—and surprising—story about the social cost of political speech.

https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/the-shy-bigot-in-the-american-electorate

u/holmess2013 — 26 days ago
▲ 39 r/SocialDemocracy+1 crossposts

A clever trick that pollsters use to catch voters that have unpopular political opinions

Hey guys. Was doing some nerding out in the polling literature and stumbled across this fascinating tool, called the list experiment, that psychologists came up with in 1984 to find the true percentage of a group of voters that have offensive or even cruel political opinions.

It seems nowadays it's not standard practice for the major pollsters because it takes too much effort and financial resources for a typical horserace poll, but I feel that it's important now more than ever to leverage it in the age of MAGA politics. Could really help us understand how these guys rose to power when all things point to them being appalling human beings.

Did a recent piece on it here to try and break it down in a digestible way: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/a-political-polling-trick-to-assess

u/holmess2013 — 30 days ago
▲ 11 r/SocialDemocracy+1 crossposts

[OC] National Polling Accuracy: The absolute margin of error for the US Popular Vote (1980-2020)

I, like many Americans, was under the impression that polls were garbage. It just seemed like a widely accepted truth amongst my friends and family.

But what I realized recently is we confuse the accuracy of polls for predicting the winner of the presidency with what they’re designed to do: predicting the winner of the popular vote. And it turns out that they’re actually pretty damn accurate at doing that, all the way back to the Reagan era.

Full breakdown and link to the python code here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/were-grading-political-polls-on-the

u/holmess2013 — 1 month ago
▲ 481 r/SocialDemocracy+1 crossposts

Why Rural America Relies on Itself: Average EMS Response Times Spike as Population Density Drops

I was looking into the rural/urban political divide and wanted to visualize the actual geographical realities of living in sparsely populated areas.

I used the NHTSA FARS database (fatal accident reporting) as a proxy for general emergency response times (EMS, police), plotted against US Census population density estimates.

As you might expect, the time it takes for an ambulance (and by extension police) to arrive blows up as population density decreases, which can help explain the conservative lean of rural voters.

I did a much deeper dive on how this geographical isolation ties into the Electoral College and national politics here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/abandoning-the-electoral-college

u/holmess2013 — 2 months ago
▲ 472 r/SocialDemocracy+1 crossposts

For a while it's seemed like Blue states, mainly California, are leading the charge in solar energy. I was curious if this was just partisan noise, and fortunately the Energy Information Administration hosts a database containing utility-scale solar output for every state for the last several years.

I did some analytics and I was pretty shocked to see that Texas has nearly caught up with California over the last decade, despite Texas Republicans constantly bashing solar for being unreliable and a needless tax burden.

I also built a custom growth metric to map out which states have the highest momentum in transitioning to a solar grid.

Full article here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/dont-say-climate-change

u/holmess2013 — 2 months ago
▲ 539 r/energy

For a while it's seemed like Blue states, mainly California, are leading the charge in wind and solar energy. I was curious if this was just partisan noise, and fortunately the Energy Information Administration hosts a database containing utility-scale solar output for every state for the last several years.

I did some analytics and I was pretty shocked to see that Texas has nearly caught up with California over the last decade, despite Texas Republicans constantly bashing wind and solar for being unreliable and a needless tax burden.

I also built a custom growth metric to map out which states have the highest momentum in transitioning to a solar grid.

Full article here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/dont-say-climate-change

u/holmess2013 — 2 months ago

Super stoked at the speed that solar is being implemented, due to both market and recently political forces (the Iran war launched by one particular orange imbecile).

However, I think it’s important to keep in mind that we’ve hit a wall with silicon tech. We’ve pushed it to the absolute breaking point. On the other hand, perovskites are just getting started, and are developing at breakneck speed to overcome their final development hurdles.

The immediate advantage I can see is that because their absorption coefficient is so much higher than silicon, they can be made super thin, such that they can bend over curved surfaces and flexible plastics. They can also be made into semi-transparent windows for huge buildings. Fascinating stuff. Full breakdown here: https://samholmes285.substack.com/p/perovskites-are-the-future-of-solar

u/holmess2013 — 2 months ago