u/impolitik

It doesn't matter if Digger is good or bad. The point is that it is capital-T True.

Kenny's speech about how it doesn't matter if the play is real or fake or funny or tragic is a meta-commentary on the entire film. It doesn't matter if it is good or bad, or funny or sad, or satire or meta-satire, or anything at all. The point of the film is to speak honestly to this moment, just like Digger does in his monologue to the EU chamber. We are far past the point of no return with climate change and our continued extraction and consumption of oil and gas. We are beyond the point of Don't Look Up. The point of this kind of art is to show us the reality of our collective situation. That doesn't mean we should give up, just that it is important to be honest about reality.

reddit.com
u/impolitik — 9 days ago
▲ 88 r/oil

Cushing contains 22M, "little more than what is needed to keep systems running"

Found this very interesting from the NYT on 8/28: "Most private companies have little incentive to hold on to oil. That is because oil is worth more today than traders believe it will be several months from now."

Apparently traders think prices are going to stay flat or even decline in coming months. A couple questions that I am puzzling through six months into the war: Has there been permanent demand destruction, and if so, how much? How long can China maintain the current lower level of imports? How long until strategic reserves around the world start to slow their draw downs? How elastic is oil demand really?

nytimes.com
u/impolitik — 2 months ago

Longform interview with WA Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen

Super interesting to hear a detailed perspective from one of the most powerful politicians in the state. Especially about his perspective on leadership in the Senate and the sausage making that went into the Millionaire's Tax.

Curious what people think. He represents one of the Seattle districts and is being challenged from the left for the first time in a long time.

youtube.com
u/impolitik — 4 months ago
▲ 165 r/oil

The Only Thing That Matters Is Ships Through Strait

Literally the only thing that matters is physical reality. As long as ship transits remain under 25% of the pre-war average, there will be a physical shortage when the global reserve withdrawals start to slow down around September.

With the SPR drawdown rate of ~1.2 million bpd, the US is going to reach the statutory minimum of 252.4 million barrels in early September. Further withdrawals at 1 million bpd will see the SPR hit the operational floor in February 2027. The SPR is likely to slow withdrawal rates once it reaches the statutory minimum, which means physical shortages.

This sub gets it. I don't understand how the markets are priced the way they are.

If ship transits remain below 20% the pre-war average, is there any reason we should not expect gas prices to hit $10 by the end of summer?

u/impolitik — 4 months ago