u/intjester-5

“How much time do I have before it takes off?”

“It’s already shot up 240% in the last year.”

I’m not trying to pick on anyone in particular, but I just read a great post by Complex-Jello on investing patience and I want to pile on to that idea here.

No one can tell you what the value of something to you is, nor when the future is going to happen.

That said, having a good idea about what is likely to happen is not so difficult. There’s a William Gibson quote that applies to Alpha Tau (and many other investments for that matter): “The future is already here — it’s just not evenly distributed.”

It’s really not hard to extrapolate that someday Alpha DaRTs will be distributed to many GBM patients, not just the first 3 humans in a study, 2 of whom showed a complete response. Multiply by all the solid tumor cancers and the future potential is quite mind boggling- both from an advancement of humanity perspective and from an investment opportunity perspective. If that future is true, what is that worth? It’s immense.

But we still don’t know for sure yet - let’s say it’s not so rosy - that those GBM patients see a recurrence. What then? Still, huge value creation for Alpha Tau across many other cancers. They don’t have to hit a home run on every trial to transform into a successful income generating business.

So what I see is a company that has so many different ways to win while virtually everything would need to go wrong simultaneously for them to lose. That’s an asymmetric opportunity. My bear case is that they get acquired too soon and we don’t get to participate in their growth much longer.

Go read their investor deck that just got updated. They’re shooting it to you pretty straight there. They are obviously optimistic about what they have, but they clearly know there’s still a lot of work to be done. There is so much opportunity in front of them that they need to choose where to apply their efforts as they bring the product to market.

Watch this Target Cancer podcast with Chief Medical Officer Robert Den. It’s almost 2 years old now, but it has been viewed less than 9000 times. That should give you a really good sense of who you are investing in, some pause about how long medical advances really take to develop, and you’ll also get some insight that very few people have availed themselves of. How many of those 9000 are other investors?

Should you race to buy? You need to make your own judgement about what works for you.

I can share that I have been racing to buy. Jan in the 5s & 6s, Feb-April in the 7s, May in the 8s & 9s. There are so many irons in the fire across so many indications and countries. The positive news keeps coming, just like management telegraphed that it would early in the year. But DRTS is not your bog standard single binary event biotech - you can’t shortcut your way to a magical deadline with AI or hope someone on Reddit has a secret answer.

It’s cliche, but you have to Do Your Own Research.

You will likely discover that the DaRT product is novel and that the DaRT product works.

The question to ask yourself is if you buy the stock, have you gained enough knowledge about the investment that you will have confidence to hold patiently through the speed bumps while also recognizing significant issues that could jeopardize your investment? This isn’t for Chicken Littles.

Ask about the company and the technology and there is a whole crew here to help find the answers together. The harder the questions the better.