ICE is an easy to understand business, that will work the same way in 10 years, at a good price with a margin of safety.
Wide moat, all-weather financial infrastructure. Seems like the time to buy.
u/jamesj — 11 days ago
u/jamesj
MMS undervalued? Mission-critical public-sector workflows, clinical capabilities, and a 15.3B backlog create better long-term revenue visibility than the stock price implies.
u/jamesj — 15 days ago
UFPI is an above-average cyclical compounder trading modestly below reasonable value.
UFP Industries is a good business with cyclical earnings, a very strong balance sheet, and a management team that seems to understand capital allocation. The stock is not a screaming bargain, but it is also not expensive for what you are getting. My best description is: an above-average cyclical compounder trading modestly below reasonable value.
u/jamesj — 15 days ago
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u/jamesj — 16 days ago
PTC is a software company with a decent moat, seems like a quality business that is oversold on AI fears to me. Thoughts?
PTC is a high-quality, wide-moat engineering-software compounder (CAD software) whose true value drivers: ARR (~$2.34B excluding divested units, +9% YoY) and free cash flow (~$928M TTM, growing 14–16%) are unusually predictable; my composite fair value is ~$182/share vs ~117, implying ~56% upside, one of the largest margins of safety my model is producing at the moment. In my opinion, AI fears are overblown. AI is unlikely to one-shot complex, precision engineering designs, and if AI does interact here, it is probably as agents using the software, something PTC can monetize.
Am I missing something? What do you think?
u/jamesj — 16 days ago
ULTA is looking good to me right now: an understandable business, with a margin of safety and a moat that will operate the same way today as in 10 or 20 years
Seems like a good value pick for a long hold, and a hedge against a possible market downturn. What am I missing?
u/jamesj — 16 days ago