r/Stocks_Picks

Oil Is Correcting, but the Long-Term Trend Deserves a Closer Look

The recent decline in crude oil prices has generated renewed discussion about whether a larger bear market is beginning. While headlines often amplify short-term moves, technical analysis encourages investors to examine the broader structure before reaching conclusions.

Oil has historically been one of the most volatile major commodities. Moves of 10% to 20% within a few weeks are not unusual, particularly when geopolitical developments temporarily distort supply expectations. The recent reversal following signs of increasing OPEC+ production fits well within that historical pattern.

One of the first areas I am watching is previous support created during earlier consolidation phases. Markets frequently revisit breakout zones before deciding whether a larger trend will continue or reverse. If buyers begin defending these levels with improving volume, it would suggest that institutional investors still view the longer-term outlook as constructive.

Momentum indicators have also moderated after becoming elevated during the recent rally. From a technical perspective, cooling momentum is not automatically bearish. In many strong trends, periods of consolidation help reset market positioning before another directional move develops.

Energy equities deserve separate attention because they do not always move in lockstep with crude oil. Companies such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell and TotalEnergies generate revenue from refining, chemicals, natural gas and downstream operations in addition to oil production. This diversification often reduces earnings volatility compared with the commodity itself.

Until price begins forming a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows over an extended period, I believe it is premature to declare a major trend reversal. Commodity markets are driven by expectations as much as current fundamentals, which is why confirmation from both price action and inventory data remains essential before making long-term conclusions.

u/herb_fok — 8 hours ago

Suggestion About Your Picks

I see A LOT of people on here post their stock picks, VERY diversified.. with like 10+ stocks, which normally wouldn't be terrible... but i see a lot of people with only hundreds of dollars in each one.

I get it, you want exposure and are clearly new to investing... but with the amount you put into each, you're exposed to lot of risk of having losers which will lower your average gains.

If you do A LOT of research and consolidate into 3 or 4 stocks that you're very confident in, you'll multiply your money quicker.

I started with 7 stocks, consolidated into 5, and recently consolidated to 3 stocks (the ones I believe in the most) and I've officially doubled my money earlier this week.

I even took a hit on the ones I was losing on..

EXAMPLE:

You have $500 in 10 stocks ($5000)

To double your money - the $5000 - you would need to have a 100% gain on ALL 10 stocks, or 130% gain on one stock and a 70% gain on another... so on and so forth.

If you put $2000 into a stock and it goes up 100% - you now have $4000. If you only had $500, we'll you guessed it.. you now have $1000 after that 100% gain... but that 100% gain was almost a waste when you had another $1500 you could've put into it to start with.

You're not doing yourself any favors owning a ton of stocks.. it's actually working against you.

Instead of 10 stocks, pick 3 or 4 and one ETF you contribute to regularly.

It really is all dependent on how much capital you have to invest! If you have 100 - 200k, picking 10 stocks is okay... but those with limited capital - try focusing on only a few so you can grow that capital quicker AND THEN buy more as you gain more.

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u/justlandin — 21 hours ago

Stocks or Rent?

Hey everyone,I’m 22 and finally got a ~$10k stock portfolio together. The problem is I keep having to sell shares whenever a big expense hits (mainly rent + other bills). My paycheck just isn’t enough to cover everything some months, so instead of going into debt or missing payments, I end up selling investments. I know this is the opposite of what you’re supposed to do, especially at my age, but I also don’t want to be broke or stressed every month. I’m trying to figure out how people actually stay invested when real life keeps getting in the way. A few things I’m curious about:

  • Do most of you keep a separate emergency fund in cash/high-yield savings so you don’t have to touch your stocks?
  • How do you free up money consistently for investing when your income is limited?
  • Any systems or rules you follow so you don’t sell when things get tight?
  • Did you go through this phase too? How did you get past it?

Would really appreciate any advice or what’s worked for you guys. Trying to stop this cycle before it becomes a habit. Thanks in advance.

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▲ 19 r/Stocks_Picks+2 crossposts

Hear me out

AMZN is trading at 29.0× earnings and 17.7× operating cash flow, both ~30% below their 5-year averages of 51.2× and 21.2× the market seems to be underpricing the business despite revenue growing at +14.2% YoY (TTM).

5-Year Valuation
P/E: 29.0× vs. 5-yr avg 51.2×
P/OCF: 17.7× vs. 5-yr avg 21.2×
P/B: 6.0× vs. 5-yr avg 8.2×
EV/EBITDA: 16.8× vs. 5-yr avg 19.6×

Analyst Ratings
Current price: $240
Price targets: $175 (low) to $370 (high), average $307.25 about 26.8% upside from current price

Insider Activity
More buys than sells over the last 6 months, signaling bullish insider sentiment.

4-Pillars
Growth: Revenue +14.2% YoY (TTM), net income +37.7%, EPS +36.7%. Net income outpacing revenue signals margin expansion.
Profitability: Solid margins at 50.6% gross and 12.2% net income margin. ROIC of 9.7% remains below average.
Management: ROIC of 9.7% and ROCE of 12.2%. SBC sits at 2.7% of revenue (13.3% of OCF), modest dilution relative to scale.
Solvency: Current ratio of 1.18× and interest coverage of 33.72× show ample liquidity and cushion on debt servicing. Debt to EBITDA of just 0.76× confirms a low leverage profile.

Overview snapshot: https://stocknest.app/?tab=overview&tickers=AMZN

DCF Read
Conservative 15% OCF growth rate and terminal P/OCF of 19× (below the 5-yr median of 21.2×) still shows AMZN undervalued by 25%+, versus its own historical OCF CAGR of 30%+.
OCF: https://stocknest.app/?tab=dcf&tickers=AMZN&dcf_metric=ocf&dcf_growth=15.00&dcf_terminal=19.0

Peer Comparison
Trading cheaper on P/OCF than its mega-cap peers on a historical basis
https://stocknest.app/?tab=compare&tickers=GOOGL,AMZN,MSFT,META&metrics=pocf&period=2

Revenue & Net Income Trend
Both growing steadily, no erosion — 14% and 38% YoY respectively.
https://stocknest.app/?tab=compare&tickers=AMZN&metrics=revenue,netIncome&period=10

u/rebel-capitalist — 1 day ago

Why Bitcoin's Strength Could Matter More Than the Trump Coin Headlines

Over the last 24 hours, most of the media attention has focused on reports that nearly one million investors collectively lost around $3.8 billion trading the Trump-themed cryptocurrency. While that headline is dramatic, I think many investors are missing the bigger picture.

Crypto has always been driven by speculation at the edges while long-term value has generally accumulated around the largest and most liquid assets. History has shown this repeatedly. During the 2021 cycle, hundreds of meme tokens briefly exploded in value before losing more than 80-95% of their market capitalization. Bitcoin eventually recovered because institutional demand continued to grow, while most speculative projects never returned.

Today the market structure is very different from previous cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold well over 1 million BTC, representing tens of billions of dollars in long-term institutional capital. Daily ETF inflows and outflows often have a larger influence on Bitcoin's price than social media trends or celebrity-backed tokens.

The recent Trump coin losses should probably be viewed as a reminder of risk management rather than a warning about crypto as a whole. When investors concentrate capital into highly volatile assets with limited utility, large drawdowns become part of the game. That is true whether the token is associated with a celebrity, politician or internet meme.

What I'm watching instead are metrics that historically matter much more. Bitcoin's realized volatility has remained below many previous bull market peaks. Exchange balances continue to trend lower over longer timeframes, suggesting investors are holding rather than selling. Meanwhile global liquidity expectations and central bank policy remain significant macro variables for digital assets.

If Bitcoin continues holding key technical levels while institutional demand remains healthy, I think the headlines surrounding individual meme coins will eventually become little more than background noise. Speculative capital always rotates, but long-term trends are usually driven by adoption, liquidity and capital flows rather than viral narratives.

I'm curious how everyone else is looking at this. Do you see the Trump coin losses as an isolated event, or do you think they signal broader weakness across speculative crypto markets?

u/herb_fok — 1 day ago

New to investing

What are some stocks to invest into? Im new to this whole thing and I get overwhelmed with it all im still trying to learn but what are some stocks to invest in if I have 100 bucks left over and sitting around? And advice is help full thanks!

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u/Affectionate_Roll_35 — 2 days ago

Is that quite diversified or what should i adjust ?

Holding for long term run, my thesis AI, cloud and Software will still growing but also adding quantum computing (ionq), defense such palantir, robinhood markets (will keep this for swing trading but saw the reports will be published in 2 weeks, so will hope for a boom ) and blackberry (cybersecurity ) business unit. Also holding as long portions MSCI world, seminconductor ETF and Emerging markets etf, and a crypto 1 euro just because yolo.

u/MiserablePromise1883 — 2 days ago

If you were restarting from scratch, would you buy MFST, MRVL, or NBIS in today’s dip?

I’m a new investor and I’m really interesting in these three stocks. I don’t currently have the budget to buy all three, but I’m wondering which of the three have the most potential with reasonable risk tolerance.

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u/_EverTides_ — 3 days ago

Is the panic around DUOL justified?

This is the thing I'm wondering here. A year ago, DUOL was very hyped, AI was around, but perceived appearantly to not be a threat at that time. Fast forward a year later and the company is valued as if their entire lunch will be eaten by AI

Look at this chart. Their quarterly DAU is steadily increasing, and even last quarter it still increased 21.2% YoY.

They shifted their short term focus on more users instead of monetization. Investors didn't like it. I don't see it as hurtful for the long term. What's your take?

u/Equivalent_Fan1344 — 3 days ago

Why this AI selloff doesn't look like the next dot-com bubble

The recent AI selloff looks more like a reset in a trade that had become too crowded than the start of a dot-com replay. The June 23 drop gave bears a convenient historical analogy, and Jeremy Grantham's bubble warning reinforced that narrative. But analogies are not fundamentals. What matters is whether the companies leading the AI buildout are still converting demand into revenue, earnings, and enterprise spending. The latest results suggest they are.

 Why this isn't the dot-com bubble

The biggest difference between today and the dot-com era is that today's leaders are generating real profits. Some of the largest AI beneficiaries continue to post exceptional growth and profitability:

NVIDIA: 32.97x P/E, 65.5% revenue growth, 63.0% net margin

Micron: 25.10x P/E, 48.9% revenue growth, 55.9% net margin

These are businesses already monetizing an AI infrastructure cycle that customers continue to fund.

Micron tells an important story

Micron's latest quarter is one of the strongest rebuttals to the idea that AI demand is rolling over.

The company reported:

• Revenue of $41.46 billion

• Up from $23.86 billion in the prior quarter

• Up from $9.30 billion one year earlier

Management also tied both results and future guidance to growing AI memory demand. That matters because memory sits at the core of AI infrastructure. If one of the most direct beneficiaries of AI server demand is producing this level of growth, bears need to demonstrate weakening demand, not simply point to a sharp selloff.

The market action looks like de-risking

On June 23, the Nasdaq fell 2.2% while the Dow declined just 0.1%. Micron dropped 13.2%, and selling was concentrated in AI-related semiconductor and infrastructure names. That is typically how crowded trades unwind, with investors reducing exposure to the market's biggest winners without abandoning risk broadly. A genuine breakdown in the AI thesis would likely be broader, messier, and driven by deteriorating fundamentals rather than one sharp session concentrated in market leaders.

Not every AI stock deserves the same valuation

The valuation gap across the sector is significant. NVIDIA trades at 32.97x earnings while growing revenue 65.5% with a 63.0% net margin. Micron looks similarly compelling at 25.10x earnings, 48.9% revenue growth, and a 55.9% net margin.

Broadcom isn't cheap at 44.90x earnings, but it's also delivering record revenue, operating profit, and free cash flow while citing accelerating AI semiconductor demand and a 67% non-GAAP operating margin.

AMD tells a different story. It trades at a much richer 113.88x earnings multiple despite 34.3% revenue growth and a much thinner 13.4% net margin. Vertiv also carries a premium valuation at 64.40x earnings while posting a 14.4% net margin.

That spread is the real story. There is no single "AI multiple." Some companies are pairing premium valuations with exceptional profitability, while others are asking investors to pay much more for less earnings power. This correction may simply be forcing the market to recognize that difference.

Where the risks remain

The bears are right about one thing: parts of the AI trade became expensive. Companies like Arista at 49.72x earnings and Vertiv at 64.40x are not priced for disappointment. If enterprise AI spending slows or cloud capex pauses, those stocks could re-rate quickly. But expensive pockets of the market correcting is very different from saying the entire AI investment story is breaking down.

Enterprise demand still looks healthy

The core demand story also remains intact. Broadcom recently argued that AI has moved beyond experimentation and into enterprise deployment, particularly within private cloud environments. That shift points toward real workload migration rather than pilot projects. 

Its June 24 product announcement with OpenAI, along with platform deployments tied to more than 20 gigawatts of global AI infrastructure through 2028, further strengthens the case that customers continue making long-term infrastructure commitments.

What investors should focus on

Rather than debating whether AI is a bubble, investors should ask which companies are supporting AI enthusiasm with real earnings and which are simply benefiting from the narrative.

On that measure, many of today's leaders still look fundamentally strong. Even NVIDIA, despite its massive $4.66 trillion market capitalization, is up just 1.9% year to date. That looks less like momentum and more like a company digesting expectations while fundamentals continue to improve.

What could change the outlook?

The current thesis changes if investors begin seeing deteriorating order visibility, a meaningful slowdown in enterprise AI deployment, or earnings reports that show AI capex has outpaced real customer demand. Until those signals appear, this pullback looks more like a healthy reset than the beginning of a dot-com-style collapse.

Key takeaway

The evidence points to a valuation reset rather than a broken AI investment thesis. Some AI stocks became expensive and deserved to correct, but the industry's core leaders continue delivering the revenue growth, margins, and enterprise demand needed to support the long-term story. The key is separating companies with real earnings power from those trading primarily on AI enthusiasm.

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u/TickerSpark_Alex — 3 days ago

which ones are you buying next week?

with macro AI valuation fatigue dragging down over these days, I'm using this dip to build a high upside position in AVs especially WRD. The company just confirmed their global Level 4 has reached 1500 vehicles which makes me believe the industry is still doing very well. On the tech side, their end-to-end driver assist platform has locked down design wins for 30+ models. I want the stock where the underlying business metrics are actively exploding. This is an absolute steal for me

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u/Dizzy-Bug-7744 — 2 days ago

Decent portafolio?

Hello everyone, I’m 23 years old and just started to invest earlier this year. I have my Roth IRA maxed out. (I changed brokerages from vanguard to Robinhood that’s why it says 0 contribution on my Roth) thanks!

u/GroundUnhappy3997 — 3 days ago

Anyone still sleeping on NOW? Feels like the boat is leaving

Been sitting on ServiceNow for a bit and honestly the more I look at it the more I think people are gonna kick themselves for skipping it.

Every enterprise software convo lately circles back to workflow automation and NOW just keeps showing up in the mix. Saw a few people on the moomoo community pounding the table on it too, so it's not just me being biased lol.

https://preview.redd.it/wpd7e5imixah1.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=daadc5a267f29ac0413047c1b5f8f2a6cd41c744

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u/LarkoVelvet — 3 days ago