u/Gamma_Gains

$SKHY starts trading July 10. For most U.S. investors this is the first time you can buy SK Hynix in dollars without going through a Korean brokerage.

The interesting tension: SK Hynix arguably has better HBM exposure than Micron right now, but $MU has always traded at a higher forward multiple. Once both are sitting on Nasdaq side by side, that valuation gap becomes a lot harder to ignore.

So the question is whether you play the direct ADR, stick with Micron as the easier U.S. proxy, or just buy $SMH and let the ETF sort it out.

What's the move?

TSMC's ADR has historically traded at a 20% average premium to its Taiwan-listed shares, ranging from 8% to 34%. The argument is simple: U.S. investors pay extra for convenient access to a dominant Asian semiconductor name.

SK Hynix is the same setup in theory. Already listed in Korea, now coming to Nasdaq as $SKHY with 10 ADSs per common share. If ADR supply is limited and demand for HBM exposure stays strong, a low-teens premium wouldn't look crazy versus TSMC's current 12%.

The bull case is a double re-rating: ADR premium over Korea shares plus valuation gap closing versus Micron, which has historically traded at a higher forward multiple despite SK Hynix having arguably stronger HBM positioning.

The risks worth watching: arbitrage will cap any premium that gets too wide, memory is more cyclical than foundry so the TSMC comparison only goes so far, and the stock has already rallied hard into the debut.

First day premium and whether Korea shares also re-rate are the two things to watch. Anyone planning to pick up $SKHY or waiting to see how the first week trades?

So Burry isn't just shorting NVDA and TSLA anymore. He added CAT, AMAT, and the SOXX etf to the pile. Basically betting the whole AI capex story is stretched, not just the chip names.

The CAT one is what got me. It means he thinks the AI infra buildout has bled into industrial names too, not just semis. Shorting SOXX also covers MU, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL in one shot, so it's a pretty wide net.

Was scrolling the moomoo community earlier and half the takes were "he's early again" and the other half "he's finally cooked." fair, ngl. His PLTR puts printed but NVDA ate him alive, and the LULU long is reportedly down like 50%. So it's not a clean track record.

I'm not shorting anything into this tape, way too painful. But I did trim some NVDA last week just to sleep better. Treating his 13F stuff as a warning light, not an entry signal.

Anyone else looking at CAT differently now? That's the one I can't stop thinking about.

So Burry's latest short book isn't just NVDA and TSLA anymore. He added CAT, AMAT, and SOXX. That last one hits Micron, AMD, AVGO, INTC, MRVL all at once.

Pulled up the holdings on moomoo to double check what SOXX actually covers and yeah, it's basically the whole semi shelf. Memory, CPUs, accelerators, networking chips. He's not picking one loser, he's betting the whole capex cycle rolls over.

The CAT one is what got me thinking honestly. Why short Caterpillar in an AI thesis? Only thing that clicks is if he thinks the datacenter buildout slows, all that industrial demand tied to construction and power infra dries up too. AMAT lines up with the same idea, if fabs pull back on tools next year, cap goes first.

fwiw his timing has been rough. PLTR ripped after his disclosure. NVDA ran him over. LULU cost him real money. So the read isn't "he's always right", it's more "he's flagging valuation risk early and eating pain until it plays out".

I'm not shorting anything up here, my port already looks red enough. But I'm not adding either. Feels like the melt up phase where everyone's fine until they aren't.

Anyone else sizing down semis into year end? Or is this just Burry being early again like 2023?

more......

ok so I was digging through the flows on moomoo this morning and the numbers are kinda wild.

week ending june 24, US tech funds bled almost $20B. five straight weeks of net selling on the Mag 7. positioning is sitting at 3-year lows.

meanwhile 80% of fund managers in the BofA june survey are calling long semis the most crowded trade. only 12% said the same about Mag 7. everyone piled into chips and memory and AI infra and basically forgot AAPL MSFT AMZN META TSLA NVDA GOOG exist as a group.

the part that made me stop scrolling, Michael Burry of all people picked up MSFT calls. the guy who never met a tech bubble he didn't want to short is buying calls on Microsoft. either he's lost it or he sees something in Azure and enterprise AI that the crowd has tuned out.

fwiw I'm not saying load the boat. these are not the same trade. MSFT looks like the cleanest quality dip if Azure monetization actually shows up. AAPL is more of a margin recovery bet. TSLA is its own zoo.

but when hedge funds are net selling for over a month straight and the crowd has fully rotated into one corner of the market, that's usually when I start paying attention instead of chasing the obvious thing.

anyone else trimming chips and rotating back into the big 7? or is this just a value trap waiting to chew up another quarter?

ok so I've been staring at MU's Q3 numbers for like an hour and I think I need a sanity check.

revenue 41.46B vs 35.43B consensus. that's a 346% YoY jump. gross margin 84.6% GAAP. net income 28.24B, up 1,398% YoY. guidance for next quarter is 50B with 86% margin and 31 bucks EPS.

these are software-company margins on a memory chip business. memory. the most boom-bust corner of semis. I keep waiting for someone to tell me I'm reading the wrong line.

what's getting me is the NAND piece. everyone obsesses over HBM but NAND revenue grew 361% with pricing up mid-80s while DRAM pricing only moved low-60s. competitors are pulling cleanroom capacity OUT of NAND to chase HBM, so supply stays tight. that's not a one-quarter thing.

the real question imo is whether this is finally the cycle breaking, like long-term AI contracts replacing the old 18-month whiplash, or whether we're just at peak euphoria before Samsung and Hynix catch up on HBM4 and the whole thing rolls over again.

pulled the chart on moomoo and the run is honestly insane to look at 🟢. but mobile/client revenue grew "from higher pricing offset by lower bit shipments" which is the kind of footnote that bites you 6 months later.

am I missing the bear case here or is the market just not pricing this in yet? anyone still holding from sub-100?

ok I have been trading MU on and off for years and this print honestly scrambled my brain a bit.

was scrolling the earnings recap on moomoo community and the numbers are kinda silly:

revenue $41.46B, up 346% YoY, beat the $35.43B consensus by a mile

GAAP gross margin 84.6%, like, that is software-company territory

net income $28.24B, up 1,398% YoY

NAND revenue +361% YoY with pricing in the mid-80% range

data center alone did $25B in the quarter, $100B+ annualized run rate

guided $50B for Q4 with 86% non-GAAP gross margin

and the part that actually made me sit up, HBM4 12-high is ramping twice as fast as HBM3E 12-high did. SK Hynix had a 57% market share lock on HBM and now Micron and Samsung are both pushing $1B+ in HBM4 already. that share moat does not look as bulletproof as it did six months ago.

but here is what is nagging me. mobile and client revenue grew 49% sequentially, only because ASPs ripped, unit shipments actually went lower. that is the exact setup that has killed every memory cycle since forever. as soon as consumer pricing rolls over the whole narrative flips.

so the question I cannot answer, is AI demand structural enough that NAND/DRAM finally breaks the cycle, or are we just at the peak of another one and the comps next year are gonna be brutal.

I am long a small MU position but ngl thinking about trimming into the gap up. anyone else holding through this? am I being a wuss for taking some off the table here?

so MU just dropped Q3 and the print was nuts. revenue came in at $41.46B vs $35.69B expected, EPS $25.11 vs $20.49. stock ripped after hours.

what actually caught my eye was the Q4 guide. they're calling for $50B +/- $1B vs $43B consensus. that's not a small beat, that's a "we cannot make enough HBM" beat.

data center segment alone did $11.5B, like 69% above the street number. cloud memory another $13.7B. the AI capex cycle is just dumping cash straight into memory and Micron is one of the few guys with the capacity.

pulled the chart on moomoo after the print, the gap up is real ugly if you were short. multi year customer agreements + record capex on their end means they think this isn't a one quarter thing.

I'm not chasing here tbh, already up huge YTD and the squeeze tape after hours always gets fade attempts the next morning. but the thesis kinda speaks for itself.

anyone holding through earnings or trimming into the pop?

ok so the semi bleed got kicked off by SK Hynix and Samsung tanking overseas, and now every chip name on my watchlist is red. NVDA, AMD, AVGO, QCOM, MU, TSM, all got dragged in.

been digging through the moomoo community feed trying to figure out if this is a real "AI trade is broken" moment or just a valuation reset, and honestly it feels more like the latter. nothing in the actual demand picture has cracked yet, people are just running for cover.

the catalysts I'm watching before I add more:

Qualcomm investor day. they NEED to prove AI is more than phones, like edge, PC, auto, data center. if it's just "smartphone story v2" the stock gets punished.

Micron earnings. HBM demand check, DRAM pricing, NAND recovery. this is the cleanest read on AI memory pipeline.

PCE print. yields move, semi multiples move. simple as.

TSM June revenue. real time supply chain signal. if orders are still hot the panic looks dumb in hindsight.

any new model drop from OpenAI, Anthropic or Google. could light a fire under compute demand overnight.

fwiw I'm not catching the knife yet, waiting on at least 2 of those to come in green before I size up. got burned in 2022 trying to call the bottom on chips way too early.

anyone actually buying this dip or sitting on hands like me? curious what level on NVDA gets people interested again

ok so semis got smoked after SK Hynix and Samsung dumped overnight in Korea and now everyone on my feed is calling top on AI again. been here before lol.

honestly i don't think one red session in Seoul kills the whole thesis. but the bar to bounce back is way higher now imo. saw a decent breakdown on the moomoo community walking through what actually needs to confirm before i load back up, and it kinda lines up with my watchlist.

stuff i'm personally watching this week:

QCOM investor day, need to see real AI revenue outside of phones or it's just hopium

MU earnings, memory pricing is the tell. if they guide soft, NVDA and AVGO are next

Taiwan June revenue print, TSM supply chain health in one number

PCE, because high multiple chip names cannot handle another hot inflation read

any model drop from OpenAI, Anthropic or Google that resparks the demand story

my port is still long NVDA and AVGO but i trimmed AMD into the bounce friday. not selling the whole thesis on a korean wick, but i'm not adding either until memory confirms.

am i missing something here or is this just a normal shakeout? anyone actually capitulating or still holding through?

Noticed these match prediction options popping up in the account recently. Decided to test the waters with a few international games and somehow walked away with an 8-win streak on 2-leg combos.

These are definitely just small realized gains ranging from $6 to $45 bucks a pop. Still, seeing a screen full of green "Won" badges feels a lot better than looking at the actual stock portfolio lately. Matches like Germany, Netherlands, and Sweden hit exactly as expected.

Anyone else playing around with these predictions instead of staring at charts all day?

ok so I was scrolling moomoo community this weekend and stumbled on a writeup about FOTO, the Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF that launched May 29. expense ratio 0.75%, which yeah, not cheap.

the pitch is simple: every NVIDIA GPU needs roughly six optical transceivers. more GPUs = more lasers, fibers, transceivers. FOTO only holds companies where photonics is THE business, not a side hustle. so NVDA, AVGO, TSMC are all excluded because they don't clear the 50% photonics revenue bar.

core holdings are LITE, COHR, FN. and the underlying names have been ripping:

Fabrinet Q3 FY26 revenue $1.214B, up 39% YoY

Lumentum Q3 FY26 revenue up ~90%

Coherent up 104% over the past year

MRVL popped ~32% after Jensen shouted them out on June 2

pulled the chart from moomoo and the run looks parabolic, which is exactly when I get nervous. this is the narrow end of the optical trade, basically a concentrated hyperscaler capex bet. if data center spend hiccups even slightly, these names unwind harder than SOXX.

am I early, late, or just bag-holding the top of an AI infra mania? curious if anyone here is actually playing FOTO vs just buying LITE/COHR/FN direct to skip the 0.75% fee.

not advice, obviously.

So the whole memory complex just got nuked. SOX index dropped over 10% in a single session on June 5. MU, MRVL and SNDK each ate somewhere between 11 and 17 percent. Brutal.

And yet the bull case did not actually break. NVDA and SK hynix just put their partnership front and center, basically endorsing HBM demand for years. Memory shortage talk goes out to 2030 in some takes. SK hynix is planning to double wafer capacity over the next 5 years, which tells you what they think about the runway.

The wrinkle is timing. ASP peak looks like it lands around mid 2026, with sequential declines kicking in early 2027. So you have a setup where the long term story is intact, positioning was crowded, and the tape just flushed the late longs.

Pulled the chart from moomoo to eyeball where MU/MRVL/SNDK actually unwound and the candles are ugly but not broken-trend ugly yet. Saw some folks in the moomoo community already nibbling, others waiting for a retest.

Curious where everyone lands:

Is this the dip you have been waiting for on MU or SNDK, or are you sitting on hands until ASP rolls over in 2027?

Does the SK hynix capacity doubling worry you about a 2027 glut, or is HBM demand a different animal?

Anyone playing the regional split (Korea HBM, US controllers, Japan NAND, HK packaging) or just sticking to MU?

Not advice, just thinking out loud after a red day.

weekly recap, but a midweek one because the tape is weird.

pulled the heat list from moomoo community after the tuesday-wednesday flush. broad tech got slapped but the order flow inside the chip names is not telling one clean story.

what stood out:

MRVL +3.73 percent, held the number one slot two sessions in a row. somebody is accumulating into the green, not chasing it.

AVGO -0.49 percent, B/S ratio 3.19, first time on the heat list. buying the dip quietly.

CRCL -10.63 percent, biggest decliner on the board, yet B/S ratio 5.28, the highest on the list. either degenerate dip buying or actual conviction, you decide.

INTC +4.43 percent, the day's best gainer, but B/S shift -1.33, the worst on the list. classic rip-the-rally-into-bids move.

NVDA -3.62 percent, B/S shift +1.28. red candle, green wallets.

TSLA basically flat at -0.01 percent, but the only mega cap that flipped fully into net-sell territory. nobody is talking about this and i think it matters.

so AI chip conviction is alive, TSLA conviction is quietly bleeding, and INTC pop looks like exit liquidity. May ADP already printed, NFP tomorrow June 5, which probably decides whether this divergence resolves up or down.

am i overreading B/S ratios on a two day window? probably. holding nothing exciting into NFP anyway.

not advice.

WWDC kicks off June 8 and the whole pitch hinges on AI features that, per what I was reading on moomoo, more than 50% of iPhones in the wild (iPhone 15 and older) cant fully run. So either Apple Intelligence is compelling enough to force an upgrade cycle, or it isnt and we get the classic buy the rumor sell the news fade.

Rumor mill also says theres a ~$9.99/month AI subscription coming. Bold move charging people monthly to use the phone they already paid 1200 bucks for, but hey, services revenue go brrr.

What got my attention is the supply chain angle. 22 names tied to the AAPL story, not just Apple itself. Semis like TSM AVGO QCOM MU, RF guys SWKS QRVO, then the manufacturing crew FLEX JBL. If the upgrade cycle is real these benefit too. Pulled the chart from moomoo, AAPL is sitting in a pretty undecided zone going into the print.

Historical 3 month post-WWDC moves apparently range from 4.84% to 22.75%, so the tape usually rewards patience over the day-one knee jerk.

Im leaning slightly long into it but small. Burnt too many times front-running keynotes.

Whats the read here, AI cycle finally real or another year of vibes? And if you are playing it, AAPL direct or supply chain plays?

not advice obviously.

Following Nvidia's investment map has quietly become one of the best AI trades out there.

Pulled the numbers from a moomoo community breakdown and the returns since Nvidia stepped in are wild:

Intel up around 330%

Marvell (MRVL) around 230%

NEBIUS (NBIS) and Nokia (NOK) around 160%

Coherent, Lumentum, CoreWeave, Corning, IREN all green too

The logic makes sense. Nvidia sees hyperscaler capex, GPU deployment schedules, networking demand, optics constraints and data center power limits before anyone else. When they write a check into connectivity, optics, fiber, AI cloud capacity or power, they are basically flagging where the next bottleneck is.

So the trade is not just "buy NVDA." It is "watch where NVDA puts its own money" because they are signaling the next chokepoint in the AI buildout.

The obvious risk is crowding. Once the playbook is this public, valuations can run ahead of fundamentals and you end up paying for growth that is already priced in.

Question for the group: would you still chase names on this list today, or is the easy money already gone? And which bottleneck do you think gets repriced next, optics, power, or AI cloud capacity?

Pulled some numbers from a moomoo writeup that reframed how I think about the AI coding trade.

Codex now has 5M weekly active users, up 6x since February. Anthropic closed a Series H at a $965B valuation back in May, with Q2 revenue projected at $10.9B (a 127% jump QoQ) and operating profit around $559M. The wild part is the margin story: inference gross margin jumped from 38% to 70%, cache hit rates on agent workloads are above 90%, and blended cost for Opus 4.7 on agent tasks is roughly $0.99 per million tokens vs the $5 list price.

That kind of unit economics is rare in AI right now.

But the more interesting question is the second-order beneficiaries. The piece flagged a basket spanning cloud (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL), workflow and dev infra (TEAM, JFROG, MDB), data and observability (DDOG, SNOW), and CDN (NET, AKAM, FSLY). DOCN is already up 250% YTD on this thesis.

Curious where this community lands. Is AI coding actually the cleanest pick-and-shovel trade in the AI stack, or are the picks-and-shovels already priced in? And if you had to pick one name outside the model labs to ride this, which is it and why?

Chart pulled from moomoo for context.

FY26Q2 guide is $22.1B revenue, NI growth at 75% YoY. Two years ago AI was 12% of semiconductor revenue. Next quarter estimate has it at 72%. The non-AI business barely moved — all the growth is AI custom chips and networking.

Gross margin locked around 77%, operating margin at 66% and still climbing. For a company this size, that's not normal.

Everyone talks Nvidia but AVGO is the other side of the AI infrastructure trade. Custom silicon for Google, Meta, Apple — less hype, same spend. Anyone holding into earnings?