r/smallstreetbets

You will regret if you miss this rocket.. Please visit subreddit i will share in the comments, so a lot are following him (Eric Jackson) and his track record. He can’t talk about it yet on social until the merger happens which looks like June 15 as a close date but could be earlier the ticker will change on the merger.

Copper breaking above $12,000 per tonne may end up being one of the biggest commodity moments of 2026.

Mining.com reported prices reached as high as $12,159.50/t on the LME as traders reacted to a mix of mine disruptions, tightening inventories, electrification demand, renewable-energy infrastructure, grid expansion, and AI-related power growth.

The important shift is psychological as much as fundamental.

When copper trades near record highs, the market stops treating future supply as an abstract problem.

Suddenly exploration matters again.

The obvious winners are already established producers like FCX, SCCO, BHP, and RIO.

But historically, when copper enters strong bull phases, speculative money often rotates downstream into junior explorers with:

• large land packages
• district-scale geology
• fresh targets
• upcoming catalysts

That’s why names like NovaRed Mining (NRED / NREDF) are beginning to appear more frequently on copper watchlists.

NovaRed controls the 16,078-hectare Wilmac Copper-Gold Project in BC’s Quesnel porphyry belt, approximately 10 km west of Copper Mountain Mine.

Recent North Lamont exploration reported copper soil values up to 379 ppm, while broader historical 3DIP/AMT work identified evidence of twin intrusive centres associated with the company’s porphyry exploration model.

The company also continues advancing a 2026 geophysical program aimed at refining higher-priority targets.

The macro backdrop around copper now looks very different from previous years.

AI infrastructure is increasing electricity demand.

Data centers require massive grid expansion.

Renewables need transmission buildout.

EVs continue increasing copper intensity.

And major existing mines continue struggling with declining grades and supply disruptions.

That creates an environment where exploration-stage copper stories may begin attracting significantly more speculative attention if prices remain elevated.

Obviously junior miners remain high-risk and volatile. NREDF has no mine, no defined resource, and no revenue production today.

But copper above $12,000/t changes how markets think about future scarcity - and that usually changes how investors view exploration companies too.

Another Reuters copper article caught my attention today.

The International Copper Study Group now expects slower production growth to push the copper market into deficit in 2026 after mine disruptions in places like Indonesia, Chile and Congo. Reuters said the group expects a refined copper deficit of around 150k tonnes.

What stands out is how often the same problems keep showing up:

ㅤ• declining mine output growth

ㅤ• lower ore grades

ㅤ• permitting delays

ㅤ• concentrate shortages

ㅤ• aging mines getting more expensive to maintain

Meanwhile demand keeps stacking:

ㅤ• AI data centers

ㅤ• grid upgrades

ㅤ• EVs

ㅤ• cooling infrastructure

ㅤ• defense systems

Feels like the market spent years assuming copper supply would always show up eventually.

Now even large producers are spending hundreds of millions extending old mines because replacing supply is harder than expected.

That is partly why I keep digging through smaller copper exploration names lately.

One I have been following:

CSE: NRED

OTCQB: NREDF

NovaRed is still speculative and early-stage, but Wilmac in BC is large:

ㅤ• around 16k hectares

ㅤ• roughly 160 sq km

ㅤ• around 30k football fields

Project also sits near Copper Mountain in the Quesnel belt.

Recent North Lamont work showed:

ㅤ• 43 soil samples

ㅤ• highs up to 379 ppm copper

ㅤ• western cluster averaging around 209 ppm copper

Company also has the MetalCore AI exploration angle and recently filed non-provisional US patent application No. 19/680,101 tied to exploration workflows.

Still no resource and still high-risk obviously.

But the broader copper setup feels very different now compared with a few years ago. Reuters, ICSG and multiple banks keep talking about deficits while governments simultaneously push AI infrastructure, electrification and critical minerals policy.

Supply growth looks slow exactly when demand growth keeps expanding.

NFA

In ten days SQNS is a 100% debt free company with expected $38.7 Million revenue 2026. Exluding 2-3 potential license deals, one targeted to Drone and Defense being closed within Q2.

Forecast revenue 2027 $67.1 Million.

Two major institutions recently bought a total of 5% of company shares.

Market and retail is getting in, are you?

My DD 3 months ago (updated 05-22)

Hi guys, a lot of you were interested in my last post regarding my RKLB gain (now at +1815%)🚀

I had many comments/messages asking how I decided it was a buy for me. Unfortunately I didn't have a full written thesis on RKLB, however I did manage to find an old PDF of my thesis on AMD stock written a year ago & why I was bullish back when it was just $116.

Thought I'd share my thought process back then since now we can look back and see how it performed in that time & compare against the factors I considered when looking for this bullish longer term investment. Hopefully this answers some of the questions on factors I consider when stock picking. There was a bit more but couldn't fit it all in one post.

I'll drop a bit more of an explanation in the comments!

I put this on my watch list last night and meant to pull the trigger. Fell asleep on the trade options screen and woke up to missed gains smh

Hi everyone!

Reuters: replacing Chinese rare earths could take years. That’s not a trade disruption - that’s a structural vulnerability. And it changes how you look at allied mineral supply.

One thing really stood out after reading the latest Reuters report on China and Japan.

This doesn’t feel like a normal commodity headline anymore.

It feels like a national security and industrial infrastructure story slowly coming into focus.

Reuters reports that China has restricted exports of several critical materials to Japan again, including dysprosium, terbium, yttrium oxide, and gallium. The article even draws a direct comparison to the 2010 rare earth dispute, which is usually a sign the stakes are being taken seriously at a geopolitical level.

And the part that really matters is this: Reuters says replacing Chinese heavy rare earth supply could take years.

Not a temporary disruption.
Not a short-term pricing shock.
Years.

That alone changes the framing.

Because these materials are embedded in almost every advanced industrial system being built right now:

AI infrastructure
quantum computing hardware
EVs
robotics
defense systems
semiconductors
power grids
aerospace

For a long time, markets mostly priced the innovation layer - software, chips, platforms, and end products.

Now governments are increasingly focused on something lower in the stack: the physical supply chains those systems depend on.

That’s why the push for domestic and allied mineral security is starting to feel more structural than political.

When you look at initiatives tied to U.S. industrial policy, including Trump’s emphasis on strategic mineral independence, it starts to look less like messaging and more like a response to a real dependency risk.

And at the same time, the rest of the world is not standing still. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Arafura Rare Earths is advancing a $1.6 billion rare earth project in Australia supported by financing structures and offtake agreements aligned with allied supply chains.

That kind of capital doesn’t flow casually. It usually follows strategic demand.

So you end up with a clear pattern forming:

Governments want secure supply.
China still controls key processing bottlenecks.
Capital is being pushed into alternative projects.
And supply chains are being rebuilt slowly, not instantly.

That is where the exploration side of the market starts to matter again.

NovaRed Mining (CSE: NRED / OTCQB: NREDF) is one of the speculative names sitting in that broader shift.

It’s still early-stage, and there’s no production or defined resource, so expectations need to stay grounded. But it does sit within the copper-gold exploration space in British Columbia, which is increasingly relevant in the context of North American critical mineral strategy.

Wilmac, the company’s main project, is located in BC’s Quesnel porphyry belt, roughly 10 km west of Hudbay’s Copper Mountain Mine. The project covers about 16,078 hectares, giving it district-scale exposure rather than a narrow target footprint.

North Lamont is one of the key technical areas being advanced, with soil sampling returning copper values up to 379 ppm Cu from a 43-sample program, including a western cluster averaging 209 ppm Cu across elevated samples.

It’s still early exploration data, not a discovery, but it helps define where future work like IP/AMT geophysics and drilling could be focused.

None of this guarantees outcomes. Early-stage exploration is inherently uncertain and highly dependent on future technical results.

But the broader backdrop is what makes this interesting.

Reuters is describing mineral leverage in real time. Governments are treating supply chains as strategic assets. Deficits and constraints keep showing up in forecasts. And older mines are being extended because new supply is not coming online fast enough.

That combination is very different from the environment junior miners operated in a few years ago.

The market still tends to see small exploration companies as isolated speculative bets.

But increasingly, they may be sitting at the very beginning of a much larger geopolitical and industrial supply chain story.

$1.6B Australian rare earth project. BC copper permits speeding up. China tightening exports. NRED sits on 16k hectares in the Quesnel belt - early in a supply chain story that’s becoming strategic, not cyclical.

RGTI for life!

May 21, 2026

Disclaimer: This is an analysis of public records. I am not a financial advisor and this is not investment advice. I could be wrong about any of this. Verify the sources yourself before making any decisions. I have no position in IonQ.

TLDR/Summary

What does IonQ actually sell? Its FY2025 filings show a business built on self-funded deals, acquired revenue, and a quantum computer that hasn't delivered a logical qubit. Here is what public records show:

Self-funded sale: IonQ's headline "$22M commercial quantum computer sale" to EPB Chattanooga was 68% funded by IonQ itself ($15M of the $22M), per the Chattanooga Times Free Press. EPB is not mentioned anywhere in the FY2025 10-K. Under ASC 606, IonQ's stated accounting policy, payments to a customer require judgment about whether they reduce revenue.

Acquired revenue: 39% of IonQ's FY2025 revenue came from four acquired companies. Three are not quantum computing businesses (satellite imaging, cryptography, atomic clocks). The auditor, Ernst & Young, excluded all four from the internal control audit.

$1.59B for nothing: Oxford Ionics, the one actual quantum acquisition, was bought for $1.59 billion. Its revenue was "not material." 79% of the purchase price was goodwill. IonQ then claimed credit for Oxford Ionics' DARPA Stage B advancement as if its own systems advanced.

Customer concentration: 53% of revenue from three customers. In FY2024, two customers were 77%. After acquiring four companies and reporting 202% growth, concentration barely moved.

Insider timing: Form 4 filings show Executive Chair Peter Chapman sold $37.4M with no 10b5-1 plan the day after IonQ terminated its ATM program, and four days before the continuing resolution eliminated the earmark funding that was 86% of 2022-2024 revenue. CEO de Masi adopted a 10b5-1 plan the day in between, later selling $105.9M.

Zero logical qubits: Competitor Quantinuum, on the same trapped-ion technology, has 48-94 logical qubits and is approximately 1,000,000 times ahead on the industry-standard Quantum Volume benchmark. IonQ has zero.

If one "commercial sale" was 68% self-financed, how many others were? IonQ doesn't name its customers or disclose payments to them by contract. You cannot tell from public filings.

Infographic links:

EPB self-financing diagram + key numbers (39% acquired, 79% goodwill, 53% concentration, zero logical qubits):
https://files.catbox.moe/3wf018.png

Insider timeline (March 10-15, 2025 — Chapman $37.4M, de Masi 10b5-1, funding cut):
https://files.catbox.moe/qqocwk.png

(End of Summary)

1. The $22 Million "Sale" Where IonQ Paid The Customer

In April 2025, IonQ announced EPB Chattanooga purchased a quantum computer for $22 million. CEO Niccolo de Masi cited it on earnings calls as commercial demand.

The Chattanooga Times Free Press reported what the press release did not: IonQ supplied $15 million of the $22 million. The seller funded 68% of its own customer's purchase.

Under ASC 606, IonQ's stated accounting policy, money paid to a customer reduces revenue unless the customer provides a "distinct good or service." IonQ does not disclose what it received from a Tennessee municipal utility. EPB is not mentioned in the FY2025 10-K.

2. The Revenue They Bought, Not Earned

IonQ reported $130.0M FY2025 revenue, up 202%. Ernst & Young's audit opinion excluded four acquired businesses from internal control testing. Those four produced 39% of total revenue. Three are not quantum computing companies: Capella Space (satellite imaging), id Quantique (cryptography), Vector Atomic (atomic clocks).

The fourth, Oxford Ionics, cost $1.59 billion. Purchase price: 79% goodwill, negative net tangible assets. Revenue: not material. IonQ then claimed credit for Oxford Ionics' DARPA Stage B advancement. IonQ's own trapped-ion systems were never evaluated.

Three customers were 53% of FY2025 revenue. In FY2024, two customers were 77%. After four acquisitions and 202% growth, concentration barely moved.

3. The Insider Timeline

March 10, 2025: IonQ terminates its ATM stock program.

March 11, 2025 (next trading day): Executive Chair Peter Chapman sells $37.4M. No 10b5-1 plan. CRO and CFO sell. All discretionary.

March 12, 2025: CEO de Masi adopts a 10b5-1 plan. Director Scannell buys $2M in stock.

March 15, 2025: Continuing resolution eliminates the earmark funding behind 86% of IonQ's 2022-2024 revenue.

June-September 2025: De Masi sells $105.9M under the March 12 plan.

Chapman sold four days before the revenue pipeline was eliminated. De Masi set up his plan the day in between.

4. Zero Logical Qubits

IonQ and Quantinuum use the same trapped-ion technology. Quantinuum: 48-94 logical qubits, Quantum Volume 2^25. IonQ: zero logical qubits. Does not report Quantum Volume. Uses a proprietary metric no one else uses. On the standard benchmark, Quantinuum is roughly 1,000,000 times ahead. Same ions.

IonQ's roadmap depends on photonic interconnects. No research group globally has demonstrated the required fidelity. Best published result: 95.9% (Chinese group, not IonQ). Threshold: above 99%. IonQ's April 2026 architecture paper is a blueprint. No experimental results.

What To Watch

Q2 2026 earnings (August): customer concentration, payments to customers.

FY2026 10-K: will EY audit the acquired businesses now that they've been owned a full year?

Clark Street LDA filings (lda.senate.gov): if Clark Street drops IonQ, the earmark pipeline is dead.

Sources:
IONQ FY2025 10-K (SEC EDGAR): https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001824920&type=10-K
Q1 2026 10-Q: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001824920&type=10-Q
SEC Form 4 filings: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001824920&type=4
Chattanooga Times Free Press (April 25, 2025): https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2025/apr/25/epb-in-chattanooga-to-buy-quantum-computer/
Senate LDA database: https://lda.senate.gov/
Quantinuum (arXiv:2602.22211): https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.22211
Cui et al. (arXiv:2510.20392): https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20392
IonQ "Walking Cat" (arXiv:2604.19481): https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19481

Most people who followed $CYDY remember March 30, 2021. The FDA publicly stated that CytoDyn's claims about leronlimab were "misleading and not supported by the data", no benefit was shown in COVID-19 treatment trials. The stock dropped 25%+ that day.

What happened afterward was a class action lawsuit covering investors who held $CYDY between March 27, 2020 and March 30, 2022.

A $500,000 settlement has been reached and terms are now submitted to the court for approval.

Who qualifies?

Anyone who held $CYDY during the class period and suffered losses from the alleged misrepresentations about leronlimab's effectiveness for HIV and COVID-19.

Can I still apply?

Yes, you can submit your application now and it will be processed once claims filing officially opens after court approval.

If you were damaged by this don't forget to check your eligibility. GL!

They're gonna bounce back, buy the dip.

After the market hit its low in mid march im finally above water about 260$ but im concerned about the concentration in the tech sector. The ai bubble i hear all this talk about get me worried. Trying to get a retirement going and have been investing for about a year and definitely seem to be doing something wrong not sure tho. Reddit give me your advice lol.

I think my options will surpass “buy and forget” account by the end of the year tho. Just need one good pull and it will be to the moon

I did lose 550.00 on my puts for today. Nice trade off though!!!!