u/greedypanda12

🚀 The SpaceX ($SPCX) $1.75 Trillion Mega-IPO is Dropping in June. Here is why $SPCE is the Ultimate Backdoor Sympathy Trade. 🚀

Listen up, degenerates. Yesterday, the S-1 for the SpaceX IPO officially dropped. They are targeting mid-June under the ticker $SPCX at a mind-bending $1.75 Trillion valuation.

Here is the reality check: You are not getting in on the $SPCX IPO allocation. The institutions are going to hoard the shares, and by the time it hits your brokerage on day one, it’s going to be gapped up into the stratosphere. But there is a massive backdoor play sitting right in front of us.

  1. The Coinbase Effect (The Sympathy Pump) 🌌

Do you remember what happened to garbage crypto mining stocks the week before Coinbase IPO'd? They went parabolic. Retail and algorithms front-run mega-IPOs by flooding into the cheapest, highest-beta proxies in the same sector.

$SPCX is going to be a behemoth. Retail wants space exposure, but they want leverage and volatility. Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) is sitting at ~$2.50. It is heavily shorted, heavily beaten down, and algorithms literally cannot tell the difference between "good space stock" and "bad space stock" when sector momentum goes nuclear. As the $SPCX roadshow kicks off in early June, $SPCE becomes the primary retail FOMO vehicle.

  1. The Q3 Delta-Class Squeeze ⏳

$SPCE is priced for bankruptcy because they grounded their old fleet and are burning cash. But everyone is ignoring their recent earnings update: Delta-class test flights start in Q3 2026.

The shorts are getting greedy because $SPCE only has $251M in cash. But combining the SpaceX-induced sector mania with a binary Q3 test flight creates a powder keg. If $SPCE catches a sympathy bid and starts running, the shorts are trapped right before a major operational catalyst.

  1. The Playbook 📉

The Setup: Buy the blood. $SPCE is priced for death while the sector is about to have the biggest liquidity event in human history.

The Exit: This is a tactical strike, not a marriage. We buy the anticipation, ride the $SPCX roadshow hype, and dump before the actual June listing. Do not hold this through the IPO, or you will get crushed by capital rotation.

TL;DR: The $1.75T SpaceX IPO in June is going to turn the entire space sector into a casino. Retail is locked out of $SPCX, so they will pump the cheapest ticker available. $SPCE is trading at penny-stock levels with a massive Q3 flight catalyst looming. Front-run the hype, take the sympathy pump, and get out before management dilutes again.

reddit.com
u/greedypanda12 — 20 hours ago

🚀 The SpaceX ($SPCX) $1.75 Trillion Mega-IPO is Dropping in June. Here is why $SPCE is the Ultimate Backdoor Sympathy Trade. 🚀

Listen up, degenerates. Yesterday, the S-1 for the SpaceX IPO officially dropped. They are targeting mid-June under the ticker $SPCX at a mind-bending $1.75 Trillion valuation.

Here is the reality check: You are not getting in on the $SPCX IPO allocation. The institutions are going to hoard the shares, and by the time it hits your brokerage on day one, it’s going to be gapped up into the stratosphere. But there is a massive backdoor play sitting right in front of us.

  1. The Coinbase Effect (The Sympathy Pump) 🌌

Do you remember what happened to garbage crypto mining stocks the week before Coinbase IPO'd? They went parabolic. Retail and algorithms front-run mega-IPOs by flooding into the cheapest, highest-beta proxies in the same sector.

$SPCX is going to be a behemoth. Retail wants space exposure, but they want leverage and volatility. Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) is sitting at ~$2.50. It is heavily shorted, heavily beaten down, and algorithms literally cannot tell the difference between "good space stock" and "bad space stock" when sector momentum goes nuclear. As the $SPCX roadshow kicks off in early June, $SPCE becomes the primary retail FOMO vehicle.

  1. The Q3 Delta-Class Squeeze ⏳

$SPCE is priced for bankruptcy because they grounded their old fleet and are burning cash. But everyone is ignoring their recent earnings update: Delta-class test flights start in Q3 2026.

The shorts are getting greedy because $SPCE only has $251M in cash. But combining the SpaceX-induced sector mania with a binary Q3 test flight creates a powder keg. If $SPCE catches a sympathy bid and starts running, the shorts are trapped right before a major operational catalyst.

  1. The Playbook 📉

The Setup: Buy the blood. $SPCE is priced for death while the sector is about to have the biggest liquidity event in human history.

The Exit: This is a tactical strike, not a marriage. We buy the anticipation, ride the $SPCX roadshow hype, and dump before the actual June listing. Do not hold this through the IPO, or you will get crushed by capital rotation.

TL;DR: The $1.75T SpaceX IPO in June is going to turn the entire space sector into a casino. Retail is locked out of $SPCX, so they will pump the cheapest ticker available. $SPCE is trading at penny-stock levels with a massive Q3 flight catalyst looming. Front-run the hype, take the sympathy pump, and get out before management dilutes again.

reddit.com
u/greedypanda12 — 24 hours ago

$LPK / $LPKFF — German laser autists own the only working tool for AI's next big substrate, and nobody is talking about it

The play in 30 seconds:

AI chips are getting too big for plastic substrates. Industry is moving to glass. Glass is brittle and you need to drill thousands of micro-holes through it without cracking it. There is basically ONE production-grade laser system on Earth that does this properly: LPKF's LIDE. Aspect ratios up to 1:50, zero microcracks. Korean competitor JNTC is years behind.

Intel committed to glass substrates in 2023, showed working samples Jan 2026. TSMC building a glass mini-line this year with Corning. Samsung Electro-Mechanics pulled forward their pilot. SK Absolics has a $600m Georgia plant coming up. Everyone needs the drill. LPKF makes the drill.

Why this isn't priced in yet:

Management Q1 2026 call: "in concrete discussions with several customers regarding orders for initial production systems"

2026 guidance of €105-120M revenue explicitly excludes any high-volume advanced packaging orders. That's free optionality in the guide.

2-year exclusive co-development on Co-Packaged Optics with a US semiconductor partner (likely Intel based on timing).

Float is 24.5m shares. Market cap €660m. Any production fleet order from Intel/TSMC and this thing reprices violently.

Why this could zero (the part most DD posts skip):

Already up 5x. Analyst consensus PT is €10.70. You're paying €26.80. The easy money is gone.

Q1 2026 was rancid: revenue -32% YoY, adj EBIT -€5.7M, FCF -€7.6M. Burning cash NOW for a payoff in 2027-28.

"When not if" is dangerous. Glass has been "2 years away" for 3 years. If Intel slips the timeline this name goes to €12.

Tiny float means it moves on tweets. Cuts both ways.

Why I'm still in:

Asymmetric bet with real underlying tech. 60% case: glass ramps, fleet orders hit, €45-60. 25% case: timeline slips, retrace to €12-15. 15% case: thesis breaks, €8. EV positive but variance is fat.

This is a small position not a YOLO. If you can't handle a 30% drawdown on a thesis stock, buy SPY.

TL;DR: LPKF Laser & Electronics owns LIDE, the laser tech that drills clean holes in the glass substrates Intel, TSMC and Samsung need for next-gen AI chip packaging. Stock already 5x'd from €5 to €27 in a year. I'm still long because the actual production orders haven't even started yet.

reddit.com
u/greedypanda12 — 11 days ago

$MBLY at $9.19. Intel just hit $124, up ~225% YTD. Mobileye is its forgotten 80%-owned subsidiary.

Intel ripped to a fresh all-time high Friday on Apple chip-deal news. INTC at $124, market cap ~$580B, +225% YTD, +15% in a single session. Lip-Bu Tan victory lap, US government 10% stake sitting on a $35B+ paper gain.

Meanwhile Intel's 80%-owned subsidiary, Mobileye, sits at $9.19. Still nearer 52-week lows ($6.47) than highs ($20.18). Massively underperforming its parent.

Why the disconnect? Intel actually wrote down MBLY by $4B in Q1 2026 and dumped $1B of stock at $16 last July. Everyone knows the next secondary is coming. That overhang IS the trade.

The setup:

$591M cash + $250M buyback on a ~$7.7B cap

$24.5B 8-year design-win pipeline (vs $2B 2026 revenue guide)

VW/MOIA robotaxi pre-series production live at Hanover, US commercial launch H2 2026

Q1 2026 beat (+27% revenue YoY, raised guidance)

New wins: Volvo, Subaru, Mahindra, Porsche/Audi C-sample

Base ADAS in 170M+ cars. That's the floor.

The thing nobody talks about: at $580B, Intel's MBLY stake is now ~1% of its market cap. Too small to matter, big enough to clean up. A secondary at any price clears the overhang. Forced sellers don't pick the bottom.

Real risks: end-to-end AI (Nvidia Thor, Tesla FSD) could obsolete the modular stack. China gone. Horizon + Nvidia own 80% of luxury. Intel could announce another secondary tomorrow.

Not a YOLO. 1-2% tracker, dated catalyst (MOIA H2 2026), cash floor.

Not financial advice. What am I missing?

reddit.com
u/greedypanda12 — 14 days ago