Chinese memory expansion rates are 5 times faster than Micron. Cycle will be end in 2-3 years. MU might not go down now, but the upside is capped, and could fall whenever. For those newcomers, the stock price falls whenever there is signs of end of the cycle, not when the earning falls.
If this has happened to you, please respond so we can raise visibility to this being a thing.
TLDR: If you've been "friended" by someone on Reddit/elsewhere because of your ostensible trading activity who then offers you trading advice, "friendship", perhaps asks if you have Webull or if your account can buy certain stocks, and also says they have an upcoming ("insider") trade that you won't want to miss out on -- you almost certainly do in fact want to miss out on it. See "Warning Signs" below if you don't want to read Details, and "This Is The Scam".
Details:
Zestyclose_Tea5159 (later identified himself as "Kalman D") messaged me on May 1, asking if I owned MU stock (I do). We started chatting, he seemed to have a reasonable short-term strategy with MU, and asked if we could move to Discord.
After chatting for a ~week on Discord, mostly about stocks (and some personal) and him making a few trading suggestions, he proclaimed that we were friends and that we should move to WhatsApp, because that's where he talks to friends. At some point I sent him a voice note (I was driving), but he said he couldn't listen to it because he was watching the stock market.
He shows a screencap of his trading account with $5M in it. Now he's going to take me under his wing. He made a few trade suggestions, which I took part in, and then he asked me for a screen cap for proof of trade, which I thought was a bit odd. He asked if I had Webull setup, I said no. He said he would recommend Webull because of its charting and that he would teach me how to use it, and that it also has zero trading fees.
At the same time, he started telling me about a friend he has at a big trading firm who has given "spectacular" returns on suggestions in the past, and that a new suggestion was forthcoming and he would let me in on it. I didn't get around to setting up Webull, and he asked if my existing brokerage account could trade particular stocks like KXIN or HCAI, I checked and no, I couldn't. He said those stocks are more restricted stocks because they are or have been easily manipulated. But Webull doesn't have any restriction on these types of stocks.
That's when my alarm bells started to ring. I then asked if he'd want to do a facetime call, and he said no. He sent me (disappearing after 1 view) pictures, but "couldn't" do a facebtime call, and never gave a reason why. When I pressed him on it, he started sending me screenshots of him having a conversation with someone else that he's "getting chewed out" for talking to me about this magical upcoming trade. I explained why I thought it was a scam. He then threatened to sue me (which gave me a pretty good laugh).
This Is (Probably) The Scam:
"Befriend" someone, gain trust through talking to them for a while, establish credibility, recommend trades, escalate "friendship" overtures while also slowly and methodically probing for their ability to buy stocks. Build excitement about an upcoming exclusive trade. Do this with as many people as you can, dozens or hundreds. Farm them from high-performing stocks where people likely have higher funds available and may be less risk adverse. Wait for a manipulable stock to hit a low, then "release" the trade to your farmed friends, and once they've all bought, sell at the top. Pump and dump.
Warning Signs:
Why This Nearly Worked On Me
I was suspicious of someone calling me a "friend" after a week or two, but the guy said he was recently divorced, that he is on Reddit for stock trading and "looking for hot asian women." Honestly I've always thought most (not all) non-professional day traders are probably guys either in unhappy marriages or are single, and are probably pretty lonely, so I chalked the friendship thing up to that. He introduced each friendship/trading escalation slowly over time, so nothing felt completely overwhelming on its own. If he hadn't let the "restricted, manipulable" stocks bit slip, I may have missed it. He'd follow-up and ask how my mother was doing (I'd mentioned she was sick), take interest in things about my day -- it seemed like a genuine person, and I suppose there's a slim possibility everything he said is true, but I really doubt it.
I imagine this is something that happens beyond MU, so hopefully if this is a scam this can be raised to awareness beyond here
was wondering if it would reach this mark
The launch event was attended by high-level Trump administration and state officials—including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Virginia Senators—framing it as a major win for U.S. supply chain resilience and national security.
The 1α DRAM node is the most advanced memory technology ever produced on U.S. soil. Micron remains the only U.S.-based manufacturer of memory chips.
This expansion will quadruple Micron’s local DDR4 wafer supply, focusing heavily on long-lifecycle DDR4 and LP4 products.
This AI market will inevitably crash. To win, we have to leave bfore that happens.
When do you plan to cash out? I'm thinking end of 2027. By then Mu will have hit 2k for sure.
Please keep questions like “are we going down further,” “should I buy now,” “how much is MU worth,” and the like here, where they should be addressed. Most people do not want to see these types of rehashed questions pop up multiple times a day.
Always great to hear from Gil.
Pull cost basis at 100% ? Or let her ride till 2027 ?
>Two months after its March earnings call, Micron is turning more upbeat on its outlook, while providing additional details on its custom HBM development progress. At the J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference, Micron’s Global Operations EVP Manish Bhatia, via STOCK Analysis transcript, said the company’s first HBM4E will be a JEDEC-standard product, with ramp-up scheduled for 2027.
According to Bhatia, Micron now expects tight conditions across HBM, DRAM, and NAND to persist well beyond 2026. Thus, he noted that the financial outlook has strengthened since the company’s last earnings call, and it is on track for another substantial record free cash flow in fiscal Q3.
Notably, Bhatia pointed out that while pricing has largely played out as expected, demand remains very strong. He added that the AI ecosystem is shifting from human interactions to agentic and even machine-to-machine workflows, with these agentic workloads increasingly driving inference demand. As inference takes up a larger share of workloads, memory is increasingly seen as a strategic asset for customers, he said.
Against this backdrop, Micron said in March that it had secured its first strategic customer agreement—a five-year deal with a large customer. Since then, the company has made meaningful progress on additional SCAs, with other customers also showing strong interest in establishing similar strategic relationships with Micron, including in NAND, Bhatia said.
Amid tight demand, Bhatia also said Micron’s global expansion is accelerating. He noted that its Idaho 1 site is progressing well, with the company pulling forward its wafer output timeline from the second half of 2027 to mid-2027.
Surging memory demand is also driving ramp-up at Micron’s new semiconductor assembly and test facility in Sanand, Gujarat, which began operations in late February. In a separate report by Business Standard, Micron’s entire memory production capacity in India has been fully booked amid strong demand.
According to a previous Business Standard report, at full capacity, the facility could account for up to 10% of Micron’s global output, supplying both domestic and international markets.
Sumit Sadana, executive vice-president and chief business officer at Micron, reportedly told Indian media outlet The Economic Times that the global semiconductor memory shortage triggered by the AI boom is proving far more severe than many companies currently anticipate, with the crunch potentially extending well beyond 2028 despite aggressive capacity expansion across the industry.
You guys remember when MU guided for Q2 2026, their midpoint guidance was $18.7 billion. However, after the Wolfe Research Semi conference call they had, they said that market conditions have drastically affected their previous revenue guidance in a positive way. MU reported Q2 with $23.86 billion in revenue.
From Q2 guidance to the actual result, 23.86 billion was roughly 27% higher than their Q2 mid point guidance.
Yesterday, at the J.P. Morgan 54th Annual Global Technology, MU management repeated the SAME STATEMENT regarding how market conditions have positively affected their previous revenue guidance again.
Now if we were to give their Q3 midpoint guidance of 33.5 billion a 25% boost due to market conditions, the result revenue will be $41 billion.
There’s no way MU management will repeat the same statement regarding their guidance being low again if the result is like only 5-10% higher then their guidance. I expect at least a 25% or higher beat of MU’s own Q3 guidance.
Right now I am all in on DRAM. I do believe in this memory super cycle, and have been debating selling my DRAM and going full port into MUU. I’m already all in on memory and was thinking, if it’s something I believe in would the 2x leverage make sense? I know the answer but looking for other perspectives
I SMELL 800 EOD tomorrow. When are you FOMOing back in?
Knowing Micron has sold out and they have contracts could it be possible that just gets priced in? Seems like it would be extremely simple to semi-predict earnings.
The Summary:
The Last-Minute Cancelation: President Trump unexpectedly canceled the signing of a highly anticipated AI executive order on Thursday, just hours before a scheduled White House ceremony with tech executives.
The Reason: Trump stated he "didn't like certain aspects of it," expressing explicit concerns that adding government oversight would act as a "blocker." He noted, "We're leading China, we're leading everybody, and I don't want to do anything that's going to get in the way of that lead."
What the Order Would Have Done: The draft proposal outlined a voluntary framework for major AI developers (like OpenAI, Google, xAI, and Anthropic) to submit their advanced "frontier" models to the government for cybersecurity and national security checks 14 to 90 days before public release.
Why This Is Good for $MU
1) No Release Delays = Maximum AI Arms Race Speed
2) Unimpeded Demand for AI Hardware Infrastructure