recovery
the last time we had a dump it took more than 15 days to recover don’t become inpatient
the last time we had a dump it took more than 15 days to recover don’t become inpatient
Hello everyone, so as I think we all can agree last Thursday and Friday were quite brutal. I know stocks like MU, SNDK, Kioxia, Hynix etc... are very volatile, but still 25% in 2 days is pretty brutal.
Having that in mind I have been reading a lot of news lately (mainly from Bloomberg) which are straight up FUD. No real basis in their claims and actually straight up false claims. Such as Meta renting their computing (which they won't really be doing and which brought NBIS down a lot) and now false claims about Nvidia which Nvidia has already denied all of them (that news brought down Korean market yesterday).
I'm curious to see if you guys know more about this and generally your thoughts. Do you think institutions are spreading FUD before another leg up?
F the bears and the people who hate MU in this sub. Bulls will win.
Honest question. My average is 550 but I kind of feel momentum has slowed in the AI circles somehow. What are people doing now ? Drop your strategy.
If you don’t believe in HBM then just sell and fuck off lmao
Not hard.
Believe what you wish, I stay a bull because the fundamentals and growth projection of the company is great.
I’m excited cause I’ll be able to start doing options trading on the 15th.
You Americans love to blame everyone else for the dumps but everytime you have an opportunity to build a little green, you instantly dump everything. Another dump incoming today
reviewing MU's fundamentals may help. a brief version: https://youtu.be/E2Pur7r9LrU. The detailed analysis: https://youtu.be/rbRfaDJRvHs. It appears still relevant though the video was published about 2 months ago.
I'm still holding it, waiting it to reach $1500-$2000.
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The market is completely mis-scaling the AI memory/storage basket.
From my broker screen today:
MU forward P/E: around 7
WDC forward P/E: around 40
STX forward P/E: around 38
All three are up massively YTD, but MU is still treated like an old-school cyclical memory stock, while WDC/STX get premium AI infrastructure multiples.
That makes no sense to me.
I’m not saying WDC or STX are bad. AI storage demand is real. But AI memory demand is just as real, and MU is directly exposed to the AI memory bottleneck through DRAM/HBM/data center memory.
So why is the market saying:
“MU = cyclical = discount”
but
“WDC/STX = AI infrastructure = premium multiple”?
This looks like lazy basket trading, not proper relative valuation.
If MU keeps delivering earnings and guidance, forward P/E around 7 while related AI storage names trade near 40 looks ridiculous.
Micron and Ford sign strategic agreement to strengthen long term memory supply and industry resilience.
08:30 Jul 06 EDT
Micron Technology and Ford Motor Company have officially announced a long-term Strategic Customer Agreement. This move follows a very similar partnership Micron locked in with General Motors (GM) just a few days ago, highlighting a broader trend of automakers securing their supply chains amidst a massive, AI-driven global memory chip shortage.
Here are the key details of the agreement:
Modern vehicles are essentially high-performance computers on wheels, requiring massive amounts of memory to power Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), on-board AI, and massive infotainment setups.
This contract is part of a broader strategy by Micron; during their recent 2026 earnings call, the company noted they have signed 16 of these long-term strategic customer agreements to lock in volume and pricing predictability in a fiercely competitive market.
Most meme stocks are built upon real businesses who just happened to get hijacked by reddit or whatever to have preposterous valuations and insane 10x ebbs and flows.
Since MU has both insane (borderline memetically absurd) fundamentals and also actual meme/mainstream hype/FUD, patient traders (or long term investors) basically can just have infinite entries and exits with extreme volatility combined with the safety of baseline fundamentals. That's a unicorn stock fellas.
All that is required to profit huge with MU using either trading style (range trading or long term investing) is big balls and calm resolve.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
$MU is my first stock investment and I didn't see this whole memory opportunity early enough, unfortunately I only discovered Micron at the top, post Q2 earnings, but I was sold and still am comfortable despite being in a loss and here's why:
Soon after I top blasted, someone posted a prediction on X "There has been a significant breakthrough in architecture - specifically around memory efficiency - not by one of the big labs, but by a team that was spun out of OpenAI (not SSI). They will probably announce it soon.". I see my $MU shares dump and I panic but I soon discover Jevons Paradox which nullifies this rumour even if it came into fruition.
The Jevons Paradox is an economic phenomenon where technological progress that increases the efficiency of resource usage ultimately leads to higher overall consumption of that resource, rather than lower. Because efficiency reduces the "effective price" of performing a task, it encourages greater demand.
I am convinced this latest dump can be associated with an end of month, end of quarter and 6 month rebalance, deleveraging that compounded from leverage flushes on Kopsi, and I am aware on previous blowout earnings reported by Micron the stock has dumped 30% and recovered and again I am predicting history repeats itself here.
Trump has also thanked Micron today and last week he has called Micron an incredible company and we all know Trump is never a top signal as we've seen with $INTC, $DELL, $IBM and probably a few others I don't know about.
And from what I understand the $250m donation to Trump accounts by Micron was a chess play just to certainly ensure Apple are never authorised to buy illegal Chinese CMXT chips.
Microsoft has also today laid off 2.5% of their jobs to fund more AI capex so the whole FUD behind capex being cut potentially doesn't make sense to me in this present time.
And the Meta fud about Zuckerberg selling compute was him expressing the optionality of being able to sell compute if they overbuilt, somewhat justifying why they are okay even if they overspend on AI capex, and this infers it is not just unlikely AI capex cuts from hyperscalers are coming soon but in fact they are expressing their interest in wanting to spend more, and at the end of the day they are in an existential race to win the AI race.
I don't know how reliable bank and wall street analyst price predictions are but they again have all theirs in the $1.4-2k range.
Today Citi has added an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" with a $1.4k price target which again just screams bullish to me.
I am merely a retail trader and Micron is my first stock purchase at $1,100 it does seem like a comfortable hold with DRAM shortage expected to continue until 2029 on top of all the other reasons Micron is a great company but the reasons I included in this post are my reasons why I will be holding through this blood. I would love to hear everyone's thoughts and any other bull justifications or whether any of my justifications don't make sense.
Thanks!
Barrons: Micron and its memory-chip peers have suffered a small dent in the past week, after racking up huge gains in recent months. That’s a chance to get in on the memory surge, according to UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois.
Micron shares have fallen 14% in the past five trading sessions, although the stock was up 3.3% to $1,007.26 in Monday’s premarket, along with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.There was no clear reason for the selloff beyond nervousness around the wider technology sector. Micron has become a volatile stock with a nearly 700% gain in the past 12 months.
However, Barron’s has previously argued it could double from its current levels as booming memory demand driven by artificial-intelligence hardware moves it beyond its normal boom-and-bust cycle.
UBS analyst Gaudois is broadly in agreement, with a price target of $1,625 on the stock. He argues the pullback is “likely temporary.”
“Fundamentals remain strong, with the memory industry set to generate close to $1.2 trillion of FCF [free cash flow] in 2027E. We believe this will ultimately lead to a step-up in returns to shareholders,” Gaudois wrote in a research note.
Soaring memory chip prices are powering those returns. UBS now estimates that prices for double data rate (DDR) memory are set to rise 32% in the third quarter of this year from the previous quarter, with a further 18% rise in the fourth quarter.
“We continue to forecast the dynamic random access memory industry to be undersupplied until at least 2Q28 [the second quarter of 2028]. The gap between bit demand growth in 2027 (+36.2% YoY) and supply (+19.3%) is too wide to close by then,” Gaudois wrote.
Investing.com -- JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said the recent weakness in semiconductor stocks should be used as a buying opportunity, while flagging that broader market participation is set to widen in the second half of 2026 as stagflation fears unwind.
“The risks of renewed flareups remain, but we believe one should keep using any dips on the back of adverse geopolitical headlines in order to add,” wrote Matejka.
Matejka told clients in a note on Monday that the firm’s pecking order for technology positioning is "semis over hyperscalers over AI at risk plays," adding that "the latest weakness in SOX and in Korea will be used as an opportunity to add, as semis upcycle is not peaking anytime soon, meaningful supply is not likely to arrive before 2028."
On the Magnificent Seven, Matejka was more cautious, saying earnings and valuation tailwinds remain but that the group is "likely to see derating continuing on monetization fears."
JPMorgan said it stays “fundamentally bearish on AI cannibalisation trades," including software, business services and media, though it acknowledged tactical bounces are likely when the group becomes oversold.
The strategist believes the unwinding of the Iran conflict’s market impact is a key catalyst for the second half, arguing that oil prices, inflation expectations, bond yields and central bank rate projections "could all reverse their upmove that was seen during Q2."
At the broader market level, JPMorgan said it looks for fresh highs in global equities in the second half, supported by a strong earnings outlook, easing inflation pressures and lighter investor positioning.
Matejka added that AI is "unlikely to be the only story in town in 2H," with small caps, cyclicals and international markets all expected to benefit from a broadening in market participation.
This is not a meme stock why are you guys hyping up a crazy rally or something. Just hold and forget that your holding until the end of the year
Here is a breakdown of the recent UBS report detailing the prolonged supply squeeze and price hikes in the memory sector through 2028, along with contextual links.
The primary reason behind the tight supply is the massive shift toward High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade server storage required by AI hyperscalers. Production capacity that previously went toward consumer DRAM and NAND flash is being aggressively redirected to feed AI data center clusters.
UBS significantly raised its sequential pricing expectations for the latter half of 2026, anticipating that the broader market will struggle to keep up with demand over the next two years.
UBS expects the DRAM market to stay strictly undersupplied until at least the second quarter of 2028.
Because hyperscale cloud providers are desperate to secure guaranteed allocations, companies like Micron and Western Digital (which owns the SanDisk brand) have been entering into long-term supply agreements with partially fixed, premium pricing.
This structural shift protects memory manufacturers from typical economic volatility and has driven major institutional upgrades and price target bumps across Wall Street for storage stocks.
For further reporting on the full data breakdown and stock implications, you can read the comprehensive industry coverage via Wccftech's Analysis on the UBS Memory Forecast and follow financial updates on Investing.com's Micron & Memory Sector Report.
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$SKHY starts trading July 10. For most U.S. investors this is the first time you can buy SK Hynix in dollars without going through a Korean brokerage.
The interesting tension: SK Hynix arguably has better HBM exposure than Micron right now, but $MU has always traded at a higher forward multiple. Once both are sitting on Nasdaq side by side, that valuation gap becomes a lot harder to ignore.
So the question is whether you play the direct ADR, stick with Micron as the easier U.S. proxy, or just buy $SMH and let the ETF sort it out.
What's the move?