u/jbf302

https://preview.redd.it/anrfscqj7xnh1.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=943d2f40736c09c19e00a47b573fa50a671948ff

Following up on my post from last week - lines have changed a bit since then (they always do as kickoff gets closer and more money comes in), I've adjusted my ownership projections for larger+sharper pools, and a couple of my suggested picks changed as a result. Timely too, given the ESPN piece on Circa that's been going around - worth talking through Circa/Splash specifically since the stakes, rules, and field size actually change the right strategy, not just the numbers.

**What's different about Circa/Splash vs. a $20 pool with your buddies:**

• Field size matters for ownership. Circa is pacing for >20k, and Splash pools can run much bigger - the more entries, the more a chalky pick actually costs you in separation, because you're not just trying to survive, you're trying to survive *and* still be one of the few left when the smaller field pays out real money.
• The buy-in changes what "safe" means. At $1,000 a Circa entry, an extra 2-3% win probability on your Week 1 pick is worth a lot more in expected dollars than the same 2-3% in a $20 pool — but so is not burning your best teams too early, since the whole point is lasting 18 weeks.
• The schedule. Circa + Splash have holiday/double pick weeks, your selections need to survive through the shorter slates and certain teams should be held out earlier in the season

Where my numbers landed on these contests:
(surprisingly the same for week 1, despite different schedule slates)

Team	Win %	~Own%	Pot Share
LAC	82%	34%	1.06x
JAX	77%	23%	1.02x
DET	72%	12%	1.01x
CIN	64%	6%	0.93x

Not going to pretend there's one right pick — that's half the fun of arguing about it here. Interestingly (to me), the solver didn't see a difference in the 2 slates for using up these teams in Week 1.

https://preview.redd.it/40fq4dqj7xnh1.png?width=2160&format=png&auto=webp&s=731fa8cd3b30ef94ba728d414a9cd1bdd84caaae

Full disclosure as before: I built survivor.the-duke.app, which is what generated these numbers — happy to share more about the methodology if anyone wants to sanity-check my picks instead of taking my word for it.

What's everyone else landing on for Circa/Splash specifically? Curious if the field's leaning toward the same teams I am or if there's a contrarian angle I'm missing.

Full disclosure up front: I'm the guy who built the site I'm about to mention, so take the plug with whatever grain of salt that deserves. Not trying to sneak it in.

Every year, every week 1 pick comes down to the same argument in every group chat: "just take the biggest favorite," except the biggest favorite in Week 1 is rarely the right survivor pick once you account for who you'll wish you still had in Week 12. That's the actual game — not "who wins this week" but "who wins this week at the lowest cost to your path through the rest of the season, and how do I outmaneuver the other players in my pool?"

• Ownership matters as much as win probability. The chalkiest team isn't automatically the best pick if half your pool is on it too — in a lot of formats you need separation, not just survival.

I got tired of doing this math by hand in a spreadsheet every weekend, and with contests adding more complexity to the rules (👀 looking at you, Circa and Splash 🐳) so I built survivor.the-duke.app: a survivor pool strategy assistant. No proprietary power ratings or black-box model: it prices games off actual market spreads/moneylines (de-vigged), and it's upfront when a line isn't posted yet and it's had to synthesize one from market ratings instead. You can also paste in your own ratings (or a public Elo set) if you don't trust the market for a given week.

What it does:

• This week: win probabilities + survival equity for every team left on your board, adjusted for ownership so you're not just chasing the chalk.
• Season map / Plan: the actual reason I built this — it solves your entire remaining season as one optimization (each team used at most once) and shows you the path that maximizes your odds of surviving to the end, not just this week. It'll tell you which weeks are "thin" (worth saving a team for) versus which are safe to spend a favorite.
• Portfolio tools: if you're running multiple entries in the same pool, it plans them together so you're not doubling up too much exposure across entries.

It's free to use for a single pool/entry with the core win-probability rankings. The season-path planning and multi-entry portfolio stuff is behind a one-time season pass (currently $19 if you grab it before kickoff — price ticks up as the season gets closer, monthly is also an option if you're joining a pool mid-season or want help after the first couple of weeks).

Not trying to replace the group chat debates — those are half the fun of survivor pools — just trying to make sure the pick you end up defending in the chat is actually the right one and (hopefully) help guide a succesful survivor path. Happy to answer questions about the methodology, take feedback and suggestions; still actively building this out.

Good luck in Week 1.

Week 1 Picks (Standard pool rules):

Wk 1 2026 Survivor Picks: 1. LAC, 2. JAX, 3. DET, 4. PHI, 5. CIN