Chargers, Bucs, Cowboys...oh my!
So much for things getting back to normal. Last night's loss by Dallas was worse than either of this year's other two chalk disasters. The Chargers were Week 1's wipeout at 32% owned on Yahoo. Tampa Bay was Week 2's wipeout at 33.8%. Dallas was over 54%, the most popular pick of the season by a wide margin, somewhere around 35-40% of the field in the big contests like Circa and Splash. If that was your only entry, your season's over with 13 weeks still left on the schedule.
Side note: Tampa has now been involved in the two biggest wipeout games of the season, and they were responsible for the biggest wipeout last year in week 14 (61.4% field exposure). You really can't make this stuff up.
Sadly, this isn't a rare occurrence. I looked back at how often the most popular pick actually wins, going back 10 seasons of real Yahoo field-exposure data. Picks with heavy field support, 50% or more of the field, have still lost about 1 in 6 times. Note to self: Send this kind of data out before the game starts :-).
One guy on X said his pool started with 8,408 people, was down to 1,718 after Week 4, and 895 of those remaining entries, more than half, were on Dallas. Gone in one Thursday night game.
If you spread your picks out, you are still alive. One entry on the popular pick means one Thursday can end your year. A handful of entries on different teams means a bad Thursday is a setback instead of a funeral.
If Dallas was your only shot tonight, I feel for you. Don't let it happen twice. Spread your picks out.