I reviewed the SpaceX IPO docs and would prefer to buy more RKLB shares
Been reviewing the SpaceX IPO documents and, honestly, their business is more underwhelming than I anticipated. xAI is a big reason why. Here's my take:
Starlink segment: Starting with the good, Starlink is a truly excellent business. Revenue is growing and the margins are amazing. It's truly a cash cow with fantastic operating leverage.
Space segment: Revenue grew a total of 14.6% from 2023 to 2025, and the 1Q26 data suggest revenue could be down meaningfully in 2026 compared to 2025. Meanwhile R&D expenses from 1Q2026 are on pace to be 24% higher in 2026 compared to 2025. Just how bad was Q1? Their operating losses in 1Q2026 exceeded their entire operating loss for all of 2025.
AI segment: The AI side is far worse. Revenue grew a total of 10% from 2023 to 2025, and the 1Q26 data suggest revenue will be flat in 2026 compared to 2025. On the expense side, capex is much higher than revenue. Capex was $5.6B in 2024, $12.7B in 2025, and in 1Q26 $7.7B. No operating leverage visible here.
Balance sheet and runway: Starlink is essentially subsidizing these other businesses but they are still spending more than they are making overall. Looking at their balance sheet, their cash decreased from $24.75B to $15.85B from the end of 2025 to 1Q26 (about $9B in one quarter). In terms of debt, they have $29.1B, which was mostly used to build data centers. Their total assets are much higher than this debt but you don't want to be caught selling assets to make debt payments in the future. Point being, there's not much runway and they NEED the IPO cash to continue operating and spending big on these various projects. This is clearly the 'why' behind why they are IPOing now.
Valuation: If you focus only on the Starlink segment and give it a P/S of 200, which is expensive but not unheard of in today's market, you'd have a $640B MC. The space segment combined with Starlink segment would be more than palatable at those levels since it enables the Starlink business (despite the former being money losing and potentially contracting in revenue in 2026). You could also argue a premium on top of the $640B is warranted for the progress made on Starship to-date but future cost savings from Starship isn't a sure-thing yet. That said, it's really tough for me to see how the AI segment is a value add on top of these two segments given the AI segment's flat to barely growing revenue and the fact that they are selling excess compute to a competitor because not enough people like using their models. As far as I'm concerned, this is a failed business segment searching for a pivot. Maybe they can salvage it somehow but tough to see and far from certain. IMO, $1.75T is highly speculative and assumes near certain success with Starship, xAI/data centers in space, etc. and places a large Elon premium on the overall business.
To be clear, SpaceX IPO could still soar, we all know the cult of Elon is strong, but I will not be participating in it for the reasons mentioned above. On the plus side, my conviction in RKLB has only increased. IMO, Sir Peter Beck has a clearer vision for the company, and I see the path to profitability. Look forward to adding to my position.
Edit: To fix a few numbers. And yes, I acknowledge the Anthropic deal will help the AI segment. Keep in mind either party can walk with 90 days notice