u/johnkelleyhvac

Go back 25 years. A tech from 2000 could walk onto today’s job and figure it out in an afternoon. Same compressor, same metering device, same coil, same superheat and subcool. We got ECMs, inverters, mini-splits went mainstream, and the refrigerant changed twice. That’s it. Nobody reinvented vapor compression because there’s nothing left to reinvent. Carnot capped it and we’ve been chasing the last few points ever since.

So when people tell you 2050 HVAC is going to look like science fiction, I don’t buy it. The box is basically done.

Here’s what I think actually changes.

Refrigerant charge limits force factory-sealed systems. If we end up on propane and CO2 at scale, you cannot have 40 feet of field-brazed lineset holding a flammable charge. Europe already went monobloc, sealed at the factory, water loop to the house, zero field refrigerant work. That’s the real shift. Less brazing, less charging, more hydronics and more electrical. Different skill set entirely.

Who’s allowed to touch it changes too. Sealed systems and tighter charge rules mean the licensing conversation gets rewritten.

Where the good techs go changes. Data centers are already paying double for chiller guys and that’s only going one direction.

And who owns the equipment changes. Homeowners stop buying boxes and start buying comfort. Whoever holds the asset holds the customer for 15 years.

The trade transforms. The thermodynamics don’t.

Am I wrong? Anybody see a real technology jump coming that isn’t just a refrigerant swap?

We’ve gone from simple systems with basic controls and older refrigerants to communicating equipment, inverter-driven compressors, smart thermostats, zoning, heat pumps, and a new generation of lower-GWP refrigerants.

The biggest change right now is the move away from R-410A equipment toward systems using refrigerants such as R-454B and R-32. A lot of homeowners hear “phaseout” and assume their existing system is illegal or has to be replaced immediately. That’s not true. A working R-410A system can still be maintained and repaired; the transition is primarily about newly manufactured equipment and where the industry is now he headed…

What’s interesting is that HVAC is becoming less about simply swapping a condenser and more about understanding the entire house: duct design, airflow, humidity, electrical capacity, controls, refrigerant safety, and homeowner expectations.

The good contractors will not just know how to install the box. They’ll know how to diagnose the system, explain the options honestly, and make the house more comfortable—not just colder.

Question for the group: Do you think today’s HVAC techs need to be more like system specialists than traditional mechanics? And what change has had the biggest impact on your work: refrigerants, inverter equipment, smart controls, or labor shortages?

Grades weren’t there? Not going to college? Go be a plumber. That was the pitch. A last resort.
Now look where we are.
You’d think this would be the most sought-after work in the country. The money is there. The demand is there. Nobody is outsourcing a furnace changeout overseas. No AI is crawling through a 130-degree attic in August to hang ductwork.
And still, fewer people come in every year.
The part nobody says out loud: the infrastructure of this country runs on licensed electricians, licensed plumbers, licensed HVAC contractors. That’s not opinion, that’s code. Those licenses take years to earn.
The guys holding them are aging out. The bench behind them is thin.
Fix the on-ramp or this stops being a labor shortage and becomes an infrastructure failure. Make the path to a license faster and cheaper without lowering the standard, and show a 19-year-old what a licensed tech makes at 26. Watch how fast the applications come in.
We’re going to have to do something, and soon.
What’s the licensing process like in your state right now? Getting easier or worse?

Built by a contractor, for contractors:
The HVAC Contractor’s Bible — 63 chapters on starting, running, and selling an HVAC business, from $3,200 to a debt-free exit
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0H9W28G4T

Kelley HVAC Pro — full estimates and proposals built in minutes, right in the home
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6759071311

HVAC Manual Boss — run your own Manual J, D and S load calcs instead of paying $250–$850 a pop
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hvac-manual-boss/id6761338720

ZipQuote — Low/Average/High market pricing by ZIP code across 19 trades
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6761561850

BillBoss Pro — talk it out and turn it into a clean invoice on the spot
https://apps.apple.com/app/id6765986966

31 years in. Third refrigerant change I’ve lived through. R-22 out, 410A in, now 410A out.

Same pattern every time. Equipment gets redesigned, price goes up, homeowner pays.

Where we actually are:
• Since Jan 1, new residential and light commercial has to be 700 GWP or under. R-454B or R-32.
• A2L is mildly flammable, so new cabinets, coils, controls, leak detection sensors. That’s real cost, not made up.
• Equipment running roughly 10-20% over what the same tonnage cost on 410A.
• Honeywell hit R-454B with a 42% surcharge in Feb 2025 plus a per-pound base increase. Chemours followed. Supply eventually caught up.
• Today: 410A around $12/lb, 454B around $25/lb. And 410A production keeps getting throttled, so that spread grows every year.

None of that is controversial. Here’s the part I want to argue about.

This is good for us. Every mandate that shortens the practical life of a working system moves money toward contractors. I’m not pretending I’m a victim here.

But Q1 shipments were down 29% year over year. That’s not a healthy market. That’s people deciding to nurse a dying condenser one more summer because $12k isn’t in the budget. And in March a class action went in against seven manufacturers alleging coordinated price increases going back to 2020 — that has to play out on its own, but it tells you the fight isn’t over whether homeowners got squeezed.

The only people getting squeezed is the homeowner and guess who has to let them know..

You know the one. Green guy or close to it. You pay him over what the shop down the road pays because you’d rather buy good than fix cheap. You put him with your best tech. You eat the unbilled hours while he learns. You cover the callbacks he makes learning to braze and learning to read a system instead of parts-cannoning it. Six months, eight months in, he’s finally worth what you’ve ben paying him. He’s about ready for his own truck, maybe still shadowing a little.

Then he’s gone. Two days notice or none. And a week later you find out he’s riding for the outfit across town.

The part that stung me longer than the leaving was this: he never came to me and asked if I could match it.
That’s the whole diagnosis right there. When a guy walks in and says “they offered me four more an hour, can you do anything,” he wants to stay. He’s giving you a shot. When he doesn’t ask, he was gone before the offer ever showed up. The money was the permision slip, not the reason.

And here’s the part I had to swallow that nobody likes hearing: paying above market can be the thing that costs you the guy.

Above market feels like loyalty when you’re writing the check. It isn’t. The day it hits his account it’s just his number. It resets to normal in about three weeks. But now you’ve got a problem — you started him at the top, so there’s no next rung. He can’t see a raise coming, can’t see a truck of his own with a number attached, can’t see what year three looks like. The only raise available to him is a different logo on the shirt. You didn’t buy loyalty. You bought a plateau and handed it to a 24-year-old.

The other thing I got wrong for years: I thought training was an investment. It’s not. An investment has some kind of security behind it. Training a man is an asset that walks out the door on two legs whenever it feels like it, and there’s no lien you can put on it. Once I accepted that, I stopped taking it personally and stated building around it.

What I do differently now:
Raises get tied to milestones, not to time or to feelings. Passes his own startups solo, hits X. Runs a changeout without a callback, hits Y. Now he can see the money before he’s earned it, and money he can see is worth more than money he already has.

Stay conversations at 30, 60, 90 and then quarterly. Not a review. Ten minutes of “what’s frustrating you, where do you want to be in two years, is anything off.” Almost every guy who quit on me had told me why three months earlier and I wasn’t listening.

Don’t start green guys at the top. Start them fair and make the ladder visible. Fair with a future beats generous with a ceiling every single time.

And when he leaves anyway — and one will — don’t chase him, don’t match him on the way out, don’t call the other owner, don’t run him down to the crew. Your crew is watching how you handle it and they’re doing math on how you’d treat them. Shake his hand and mean it. About a third of them come back within two years, and the ones who come back are done wondering if the grass is greener.

Curious how the rest of you handle the training money. Anybody use a training repayment agreement that actually held up, or is that just a piece of paper that makes you feel better?

The HVAC Contractor’s Bible — 63 chapters on starting, running, and selling an HVAC business, from $3,200 to a debt-free exit
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0H9W28G4T

Built by a contractor, for contractors:

Kelley HVAC Pro — full estimates and proposals built in minutes, right in the home
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6759071311

HVAC Manual Boss — run your own Manual J, D and S load calcs instead of paying $250–$850 a pop
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hvac-manual-boss/id6761338720

ZipQuote — Low/Average/High market pricing by ZIP code across 19 trades
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6761561850

BillBoss Pro — talk it out and turn it into a clean invoice on the spot
https://apps.apple.com/app/id6765986966

HVAC Owners Roundtable (Skool) — owner-only community, $49/mo founding rate
https://www.skool.com/hvac-owners-roundtable

The HVAC Contractor’s Bible — 63 chapters on starting, running, and selling an HVAC business, from $3,200 to a debt-free exit
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0H9W28G4T

You want to be successful? Here’s the list.

Guts. Determination. Willpower. Strength. Thick skin. And the memory of a goldfish.

That last one throws people, so let me explain it. You are going to get chewed out by a customer, lose a bid you should have won, eat a compressor on your dime, and have a tech quit on you in the same week. If you carry that into tomorrow, tomorrow is already lost. Thick skin gets you through the hit. The goldfish memory is what lets you start the next day clean. Learn the lesson, dump the feeling, go.

You have to get up every day with the willpower to be better than you were the day before. Not better than the guy across town. Better than yesterday’s version of you. That’s the only fair comparison there is.

If you’re not willing to put in the time, you can’t expect the results to be favorable. Time is the most precious thing any of us has, and it’s the one thing you have to hand over to pay the piper. You can’t borrow it, buy it back, or have somebody else spend it for you.

Now here’s the other half, and this is where I watch guys bury themselves.

Be diligent and smart with your money. Stop buying everything under the sun. Every new gadget, every new piece of equipment, every tool you saw somebody show off online. Work with what you have. If it’s working and it means you sweat a little harder, sweat a little harder. If it’s not really going to save you serious time or money, don’t buy it.

You don’t need 17 trucks. You don’t need a power hoist. You don’t need a new 10-foot brake. You need the ones you’ve got to keep running until you can genuinely afford to replace them, and I mean really afford it. Not “the payment fits.” Cash, or close to it, without touching the money that keeps you alive in February.

Every dollar you hand to a piece of equipment you didn’t need is a dollar that isn’t in your reserve when the slow season shows up. And the slow season always shows up.

Every blue moon you’ll see a one-hit wonder. Somebody jumps in and it just works. That’s timing, not a method. Don’t build your plan around being that guy, because you can’t replicate luck. For the rest of us it’s work your tail off, stay diligent, keep your eye on the prize.

I started with $3,200 and a used van. Twenty-four years later I walked out debt-free. Nobody saw the years in between, and the years in between are the whole thing. It wasn’t one big break. It was showing up on the days I didn’t feel like it, and not spending money I didn’t have to spend.

The prize isn’t the money either. It’s the day you realize the business runs whether you’re standing in it or not.

What’s the one purchase you regret most, or the one thing you ground through that you almost quit over?

Every week someone posts about big companies gobbling up HVAC shops like it's the end of the trade. I'm going to say something unpopular, and I'm saying it as a guy who took the check. I built my company from $3,200 in 1994, ran it debt-free for 24 years, and in 2018 I sold to a larger HVAC company that was buying up smaller shops all over the area. So I've seen this from both sides of the table.

Here's what happens after these deals close, and I watched it happen. Prices go up 30 to 40 percent. Techs get sales quotas and commission pressure. The owner whose name was on the truck is gone inside two years. Service turns into a script. And every homeowner in that market starts feeling like they're getting worked instead of helped.

Now think about what that does for the independent down the street. Every burned customer is looking for exactly one thing. A real person. An owner who answers the phone. A company that fixes what can be fixed instead of condemning every system over a capacitor. The consolidators spend millions training their own customers to distrust big HVAC. You don't have to say a bad word about anybody. Just be the opposite and let them feel the difference.

I know this from my own run too. My best growth years were always right after a big consolidator moved into my area. They raised the price ceiling for everyone, then drove their customers straight to me. Premium pricing, honest diagnosis, 62 percent close rate, and half my new customers opened with "the last company tried to sell me a whole system for a bad board."

The trap is trying to compete with them on marketing spend or price. You lose both fights. Compete on the one thing the model structurally cannot do, which is give a damn.

And yes, if the number gets big enough one day, take the check like I did. There's no shame in it. But until that day, the roll-ups are quietly handing independents the best positioning this trade has ever had.

So am I a hypocrite, or am I right? Anyone actually losing business to a roll-up, and losing or getting higher prices and making a real good living.

Built by a contractor, for contractors:

Kelley HVAC Pro — full estimates and proposals built in minutes, right in the home
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6759071311

HVAC Manual Boss — run your own Manual J, D and S load calcs instead of paying $250-$850 a pop
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hvac-manual-boss/id6761338720

ZipQuote — Low/Average/High market pricing by ZIP code across 13 trades
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6761561850

BillBoss Pro — talk it out and turn it into a clean invoice on the spot
https://apps.apple.com/app/id6765986966

Took me a few years and a lot of lost jobs to figure this one out.

Early on I’d do the diagnosis, figure out what they needed, and hand them one number. Just one. And every time that number stood alone, it felt big. There was nothing to compare it to, so the only comparison the customer made was “that’s a lot of money” versus “no money at all.” I lost a lot of work that way.

Then I started giving three options every single time. Good, Better, Best. Same job, three ways to solve it.

The Best one up top is the full system, top efficiency, every bell and whistle, longest guarantee. The Better one in the middle is the one most folks actually land on. The Good one at the bottom still solves their problem honestly, no junk, but it’s stripped down.

Here’s what changed. Once there are three numbers on the page, the customer stops asking “should I spend money or not” and starts asking “which one is right for me.” You moved them from a yes/no decision to a which-one decision. That’s a completely different conversation, and it’s one where you’ve already won — because all three end with you doing the work.

The middle one becomes the easy yes. It’s not the scary top number and it’s not the bare-bones bottom one, so it feels like the smart, responsible choice. People don’t want the cheapest and they don’t want to feel reckless. They want to feel like they made a good decision. Three options lets them do that.

And don’t apologize for the top number. It’s there to do a job. It makes the middle look reasonable. Half the time somebody surprises you and buys it anyway.

One price is a wall. Three prices is a menu. Give them a menu.

Anybody else still handing out single quotes? Try three for a week and watch what happens to your average ticket.

Built by a contractor, for contractors:

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6759071311

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hvac-manual-boss/id6761338720

https://zipquote.net

https://apps.apple.com/app/id6765986966

This one little habit kept me losing deals I’d already earned.

You do the diagnosis, you present the options, you give the number, and then you close with “so, what do you think?”

That question hands the customer a fork in the road and invites them to stall. “Let me talk to my wife.” “I gotta think about it.” You just took a buyer and gave him an exit.

Try the assumptive close instead.

Once you’ve answered their questions, don’t ask permission. Assume the sale and move to logistics:

“Okay, the Better package with the 10-year guarantee is the one most folks land on. I’ve got crew availability Tuesday or Thursday next week, which works better for you?”

You’re not being pushy. You’re making the decision easy. If they’re not ready, they’ll tell you, and now you know the real objection instead of a polite brush-off. But nine times out of ten they just pick a day, because you removed the pressure of having to decide.

People don’t want to make a big decision. They want to be led to a good one.

Anybody else have to break the “what do you think” habit? That phrase cost me more money than I’d like to admit.

Built by a contractor, for contractors:

Kelley HVAC Pro - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/id6759071311

HVAC Manual Boss - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hvac-manual-boss/id6761338720

ZipQuote - https://zipquote.net
BillBoss Pro - https://apps.apple.com/app/id6765986966

BillBoss Pro - https://apps.apple.com/app/id6765986966

There were many a time throughout my years in business that I felt like giving up. That I felt like it wasn’t worth the amount of effort I was putting in.
The sacrifices I was making. The time away from my family. Killing myself, beating my body up to the point where I’d be rendered useless by the end of the workday.
But something inside me kept me going.
Kept me striving to be better. Kept me pushing forward — to the point where I built a successful business through grit, hard work, and determination.
And if I can do it — a poor kid from Paterson, New Jersey, who started out with absolutely zero and worked his way up to being debt-free — then so can you.
It’s about the grit. It’s about the determination. It’s about the perseverance.
Don’t let anybody ever tell you that you’re not good enough. That you can’t do it. Let that light a fire in you. Use it to work harder, to prove everybody around you that you’re built different.

If you’ve ever submitted an app to Apple, you know the feeling.
You hit submit, wait 3 days, and get back a wall of rejection reasons that could’ve been caught in 5 minutes.
I just finished building a tool that fixes that.
It scans your app and grades it against Apple’s review guidelines before you ever submit — metadata, privacy labels, IAP setup, demo accounts, the works. You get a full breakdown of what passes, what fails, and exactly what needs fixing.
I’ve run it on my own apps and it’s caught things I would’ve missed. Now I want to test it on apps that aren’t mine.
If you’ve got an iOS app in review hell (or about to be), shoot me a DM. Free during beta

Same screenshot. Approved on builds 1 through 6. Rejected on build 7.
No changes to the screenshot. No changes to the screen it represents. Just “needs revision.”
Resubmitted the exact same image. Approved.

Mod note up front: this is a plug for something I built. I don't want to be the mod who exploits the sub for clicks, so I'll keep it straight and you can scroll if it's not for you.

I've been moderating r/hvacpeople a while now. The questions that come up most aren't "what SEER does this unit have" — they're owner questions. Pricing fights. Crew problems. P&L math. When to fire. When to walk. How to actually exit clean instead of dying behind a desk at 65.

Those conversations don't happen in public threads because owners don't want to publicly post real margins, real fires, real bid prices, real screwups.

So I built a private room where they can.

It's called HVAC Owners Roundtable. It's on Skool. Owner-only — techs, vendors, supply reps, "thinking about it later" wannabes get filtered out at the door.

Quick about me for anyone who hasn't seen me here:

- Built Johnston Air from $3,200 in 1994 to a debt-free exit in 2018 (24 years)
- Author of The HVAC Business Blueprint (Amazon)
- Mod here. 35 years in the trade.

What's inside the room:

- Full owner-focused curriculum — sales, pricing, hiring, recurring revenue, owner mindset. Lesson 1 is up: the consultative close I used to run a 62% close rate.
- Weekly live owner-to-owner calls. Bring a real bid, a hiring problem, or a customer situation that's stumping you. We work through it together.
- Bid review channel — paste a real bid, get it pressure-tested by other owners and by me.
- Deal flow — owners helping owners with hires, vendors, financing, exits.

Who it's NOT for:

- Techs trying to learn from owner conversations (you'll get removed at the door)
- Vendors / supply reps trying to sell to the room (same)
- Tire-kickers who want a free Facebook-group experience
- Anyone looking for "passive income" content

This is a working room. For people running real businesses.

Founding pricing: $49/mo. Locked at that rate for life. Once we hit 100 members the door price goes to $79, and the first 100 stay grandfathered forever. That's not a marketing gimmick — it's how Skool's subscription billing works automatically.

If this is for you: skool.com/hvac-owners-roundtable

If it's not: no hard feelings, scroll on.

Either way, this sub stays free and open for everyone. The paid room isn't a downgrade of r/hvacpeople — it's a separate, owner-only space for the conversations we can't have in public.

— John

I built a $3,200 startup into a debt-free exit using one simple thing: I stopped competing on price and started competing on risk transfer.

Customer doesn’t actually want the cheapest system. They want to not get screwed in year 4 when the TXV craps out.

Most contractors won’t offer it because they’re scared of the labor exposure. That fear is exactly why it works — your competitors won’t copy it.

Anyone else built their book of business on a long-tail guarantee instead of low-bid pricing? Or am I the only dinosaur left?