![Image 1 — [OC] I measured shot-blocking value across 16 NHL seasons. Nick Seeler and Ian Cole prevent more goals than anyone, but even for them blocking is worth about one goal a season relative to an average defender.](https://preview.redd.it/jmukr81omcih1.png?width=860&format=png&auto=webp&s=585ee3b89cf83d7914f65ccc850d8f75139b8b07)
![Image 2 — [OC] I measured shot-blocking value across 16 NHL seasons. Nick Seeler and Ian Cole prevent more goals than anyone, but even for them blocking is worth about one goal a season relative to an average defender.](https://preview.redd.it/f42xc71omcih1.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=f089327447e919a510787632a188bde5df6c47b6)
[OC] I measured shot-blocking value across 16 NHL seasons. Nick Seeler and Ian Cole prevent more goals than anyone, but even for them blocking is worth about one goal a season relative to an average defender.
Are shot-blocking defensemen truly good at "generating defense"?
I made an expected goals model that predicts both 1) how likely a given shot is to be blocked and 2) how that probability changes depending on which players are on the ice. This list ranks players by the number of goals their individual blocking has prevented relative to the average player for the 2025-2026 season.
https://xjawn.com/blog/blocked-shots-3
TL;DR: Shot blocking is a real skill (looking at you Nick Seeler)! But its impacts are modest at best.
u/jrg566 — 11 days ago