u/kitchensink108

Defending the Draft 2026: The Cincinnati Bengals

The 2025-26 Season

Tiger's Claw meets Monkey's Paw.

The Bengals had started the season 0-2 for the last three years, and Zac Taylor was catching heat from it. The team and the fans wanted to turn this around, and finally get out the gate with a 2-0 start. It felt like it was all coming together. Burrow, Chase, and Higgins had all signed long-term extensions, the offensive line felt like it was finally coming together, Cam Taylor-Britt looked to be taking the step toward becoming a lockdown CB1, their back-to-back 17.5 sack menace Trey Hendrickson would be paired alongside a new first-round EDGE rusher, and Burrow made it through the preseason without injury. This year would be different. This year the team would start fast & finish strong.

They succeeded, in what may be two of the worst victories you've ever seen. In the opener against the Browns, the team cobbled together 141 yards of total offense, but the team limped to victory over Joe Flacco's Browns. The following game, they beat the Jaguars after Burrow suffered a turf toe injury that was expected to land him on IR for nearly the remainder of the season.

Jake Browning, the dependable backup QB from years prior, proved less dependable than the Bengals had hoped. After three straight losses, the team surprised everyone by making an in-division trade for Joe Flacco. Over the remainder of the season, Flacco proved he still had some Elite Dragon in him despite his 40 years of age, and he defeated Aaron Rodgers of the Steelers in the Icy Hot Bowl (alternatively named, The Unc Bowl).

It was a feel-good game for a season that was effectively over, though. The team would end up losing 5 of its first 6 games with Flacco due a historically bad defense, cursed by injuries and marred by both inexperienced rookies & uninspiring veterans, that regularly gave up over 30 points and allowed over 500 yards of offense three times. Burrow returned from injury quicker than expected, but no QB was going to save the team from this defense.

There were two major takeaways from the season. One was that the oft-maligned offensive line had actually become objectively decent, and was no longer the team's main issue. Two, the defense didn't need change, the defense needed a full-on reset.

2026 Free Agency

Defense, defense, defense. They let Trey Hendrickson and Joseph Ossai walk, a heavily-argued decision as they were two of the few bright spots on the defense for the past couple years, but Trey's years-long contract disputes, ageing, and recent injuries couldn't be overlooked. The Bengals didn't sit around idly, though. They picked up a solid mix of high-end defensive starters (Bryan Cook, Boye Mafe) plus some solid depth pieces (Jonathan Allen, Kyle Dugger). A lot of fans felt the defense was already feeling better, but they still needed to attack it in the draft.

The 10th pick overall was looking shaky, mocks would sometimes have an amazing player fall to the Bengals, but too often every top tier defensive player was gone by 10. There were discussions about both trading up and trading back, the mix of excitement and anxiety was intense. Adding to this was another complication -- the biggest hole left to fill was interior pass rush. There were hints that the team was looking at Peter Woods, Kayden McDonald, or Caleb Banks. But taking any of them at 10 felt rich, waiting for them later was a risk, and the odds of them being immediate gamewreckers was questionable.

A week before the draft, the team made its first round selection by trading the pick for Giants' star Dexter Lawrence, in what has been widely described as a win-win trade for both teams. The Bengals, accordingly, would enter the draft without a first round pick, but would otherwise be free to pick BPA instead of trying to force a pick at any particular position.

2026 Draft

2.41 Cashius Howell (EDGE, Texas A&M)

Pick 1.10 was looking rough for Cincinnati. Too many scenarios where the kind of playmakers they needed just might not be available. Pick 2.41 was the opposite. After filling the DT/NT need with Dexter Lawrence, their early Round 2 pick was wide open for however they wanted to use it. Nobody really knew what direction they'd go with the pick, with the only consensus prediction being that it would likely be defense.

For the third time in four years, the Bengals used their first draft pick on an EDGE rusher, grabbing Shemar Stewart's old teammate Cashius Howell. There have been comments, sometimes jokingly and sometimes not, that this pick is about replacing Shemar with the better EDGE from the same college, but that was missing the point. The team had lost half of its EDGEs this offseason -- Trey Hendrickson, Joseph Ossai, and Cam Sample -- and Howell had a play-style that complemented, not replaced, Stewart's.

Howell was scouted as a speed rusher, unlikely to bullrush much with his lighter frame and short arms, but more than capable of using his insane bend & agility to get around defenders. His speed & agility also hope to serve him in coverage. Linebacker was a pain point for the Bengals in 2025, as their two rookies played startlingly like two rookies, but the team has not shown any indication that they want to replace either of them. Instead, the team spent this offseason surrounding the LBs with significantly more talent, and Cashius projects to be a big part of that. Whether it's dropping into coverage to help them directly, or pressuring the passer, or just presenting as a threat that the offense must compensate for, the Bengals will be hoping that Howell's versatility can elevate the linebackers as well as the entire defense.

3.72 Tacario "Bobo" Davis (CB, Washington)

One of the few bright spots on the Bengals defense in 2025 was at cornerback. It came at a cost of a significant setback -- their promising young CB Cam Taylor-Britt regressed massively, right as he entered his contract year, and would end up benched the majority of the season before culminating in a season-ending injury and setting off to Indianapolis in free agency. But in his place, DJ Turner II and Dax Hill stepped up and became a solid CB1/CB2 duo. That left a gap at CB3; the team made do with a few late-round draft selections they had from the past couple years, but no one proved themselves as long-term solutions for the role, and the defense was consistently dismantled by opposing tight ends.

Tacario Davis is a 6'4" CB with great speed. He's not the best at mirroring, and has a reputation for being grabby, but there's hope that with coaching he'll clean this up, and the team will be left with a CB with very rare combination of size, speed, and ball skills who can be truly disruptive in the pass game. While generally projected as an outside corner, analysts have also noted his potential to cover tight ends or even play some free safety.

Cincinnati's CB1 will be DJ Turner, but the exact configuration of the rest of the DB corp is yet to be determined, and the team will be trying to determine the correct fits for Dax, Bobo, Jalen Davis, Josh Newton, and Ja'Sir Taylor. He should be a solid contributor regardless, and as Al Golden enters his second year as the team's DC, Davis should be a versatile tool to help this defense find what it was missing in 2025.

4.128 Connor Lew (C, Auburn)

Cincinnati originally had 4.110, but when the Jets wanted to move up for a QB, they made a deal to swap 4.110 & 6.199 for 4.128 & 4.140.

Offensive line was a depth & developmental need for Cincinnati. LG and RT seem set for the future, but Orlando Brown Jr. and Ted Karras are both getting up there in age, and Dalton Risner -- while a great stopgap at RG -- is still just a stopgap as the team looks for a long-term solution there. The Bengals took shots on centers in both 2024 and 2025, grabbing Matt Lee in the 7th and Seth McClaughlin as a UDFA, but neither developed as hoped and both have departed the team.

Enter Connor Lew. Lew was one of the highest-graded pure-center prospects of the draft, lauded for his pass protections skills, especially technique & instinct. He was a team captain at Auburn, a commendation highly valued by the Bengals staff, and his presumed mentor, Karras, is also a team captain. He still has development ahead of him, everything from continued improvement of his technique, to potentially adding some mass & strength, and of course recovering from his injury. This all fits perfectly well with the Bengals, though, being a pass-heavy offense that doesn't need a new starter right away. His good fundamentals and young age put him in an excellent position to develop behind Ted Karras without needing to be rushed into a starter role, or rushed through his injury recovery.

4.140 Colbie Young (WR, Georgia)

WR is an unexpected need for a team with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but ever since Tyler Boyd left years ago, the Bengals have had a rocky experience finding a solid WR3 option who can also pose as a legitimate threat if either Chase or Higgins are out. Charlie Jones ended up being a solid returner, but didn't pan out as a WR. Jermaine Burton didn't pan out in any sense. Andrei Iosivas has exceeded expectations as a 6th round pick, but inconsistencies and lack of elite upside have kept him in the hot seat. The Bengals have made do the past couple years with Iosivas, their receiving TE Mike Gesicki, and newcomer Mitchell Tinsley, but they never stopped looking for a true threat to add to the WR room.

Colbie Young should be entering into a good situation. He'll be the presumptive WR3, he'll be catching passes from Joe Burrow (or potentially Joe Flacco), and his primary goal is not to be elite and carve up the opposing secondary on his own, but to simply exploit the weaknesses that Chase & Higgins open up for him. He's a large receiver, measuring 6'4", and has all the tools needed to beat out defenders for contested catches. And these are tools he'll need to make use of, as his top-end speed and lack of separation are often criticized. Ideally, Chase & Higgins will help create mismatches for Young to exploit, and his size should make him dangerous anywhere on the field -- difficult to cover in the redzone and difficult to tackle in the open field.

Controversy immediately surrounded his pick, as Young has a legal history with a domestic violence accusation. Upon the victim retracting her accusation, he accepted a plea deal on much lower charges. The Bengals have had mixed success with character concern players in the past, and will be hoping for a Joe Mixon situation and not an Adam Jones situation.

6.189 Brian Parker II (OL, Duke)

As discussed above, the OL needs were not limited to just center. The team was looking for pretty much any role, depth for now but with opportunities at future starter if anyone so impressed. This is where Brian Parker fits perfectly. What position is Brian Parker? He's "offensive line." He played both LT and RT at times at Duke, at the Shrine Bowl he played C, and scouts also projected a fit at G. Most likely, he doesn't become a starting tackle due to his frame, however anything is a possibility. Barring sudden injuries, he'll have time to sit behind vets at OT, G, and C, and see where he fits best. He might develop into a starter at any position, but he could just as easily become a versatile backup option like the Bengals have with Cody Ford.

Some physical limitations will hinder his potential, at least for the moment. He's on the smaller end, at 6'5" and below 310 pounds, with some concern for his arm length as well. However, good fundamentals, good instincts, and proven performance in college make him well worth the pick. Often mocked as early as Round 4, picking him up in Round 6 is solid value for Cincinnati.

7.221 Jack Endries (TE, Texas)

The Bengals rostered five TEs in 2025, not including Erick All Jr. who spent the season on IR. There's no Kelce or Gronk in the group, but they get the job done by committee, led by Gesicki (described, sometimes jokingly and sometimes not, as their actual WR3) and Drew Sample (their dedicated blocking TE).

Jack Endries is a solid receiving TE with uninspiring blocking upside. He'll likely be trying to fill the roster spot vacated by Noah Fant, or even steal Tanner Hudson's spot as a rotational pass catcher. He's in one of the tougher spots out of the Bengals draft class, though. The team loaded up on offensive line, adding four players as draft picks and UDFAs, not to mention loading up on defensive line, and they may look to slim down their TE corp to accommodate. Combined with Erick All's return from IR, Endries will be thrown into an arena and forced to prove himself early. But with Sample, Gesicki, and Hudson all in their 30s, and All with his significant injury history, Endries has a real opportunity to not only win a spot but to make an impact.

7.226 Landon Robinson (DT, Navy)

Sometimes the pieces come together, and you just can't pass it up. Landon Robinson, an Ohio native, talked in the past about how his father is a big Bengals fan and how cool it would be if his father could watch him play for the team. As the 2026 draft came to a close, and the Bengals looked to put the finishing touches on their defensive rebuild and trench fortification, Robinson simply made too much sense. A DT for the Naval Academy, he was scouted for his strong interior pass rush. Despite being undersized for the role, he's consistently disruptive in the pocket and put up extremely impressive testing numbers at his Pro Day.

In 2025, the Bengals allowed the 3rd most points per game, 7th most passing yards per game, and recorded the 7th fewest sacks in the league. Robinson will join a defensive line rebuilt to attack the QB relentlessly. Robinson, of course, won't be expected to shred the opposing IOL on his own, he's not expected to be a Dexter Lawrence per se. But he has the opportunity to find a home as a rotational or depth piece, with a couple guys on the roster he's favored to beat out for that spot. Cincinnati will likely try him out at NT, 3T, and special teams before deciding on his long-term role.

2026 UDFAs

The Bengals signed 11 UDFAs. A few of these guys have legitimate shots at making the team, but I'm only going to discuss one in any kind of depth.

Last year, the Bengals' LB corp was arguably the worst in the NFL. This was not directly addressed in free agency nor the draft, as the hope was that the team's two young LBs (now entering their second year) will benefit from a year of experience and far better play from every position around them. Out of all the UDFAs, the fanbase is most intrigued by Eric Gentry. He's a super tall & lanky player at 6'6" and 221 pounds with long arms and solid athleticism. He struggles with physicality, a feature you'd think is necessary to play linebacker in the NFL, but his rare size and athleticism are worth taking a look at.

Cincinnati's RB1 isn't locked in long-term, but there's no debate that Chase Brown is the presumptive. However, Perine is set to be a free agent next year, and Tahj Brooks is yet unproven, so there's potential for either Bullock or Haynes to make a name for themself.

The offensive linemen also have a reasonable shot at finding a deep depth role, or at least a practice squad spot.

2027 Projected Needs

This year's moves included many elements of preparing for the future. Offensive line in particular should have several players competing to take over positions in '27 or '28, the majority of the team's key players are under contract at least through 2029, and the team has a lot of hope that some underperforming young players (especially the linebackers) develop into quality starters. However, there are definitely positions that are likely to be points of emphasis in 2027.

  • CB. DJ Turner and Dax Hill will both be free agents, and there's uncertainty whether the team will keep both. The team will likely be looking for a new CB.
  • RB. Everyone expects a Chase Brown extension, but finding a long-term power back will become a bigger priority.
  • QB. Well, backup QB. Flacco returning for a third year seems unlikely, the team's previous QB2 Jake Browning left in free agency, and the team was unable to secure the QB they were likely targeting in this year's draft.
  • TE. Many of the team's tight ends will be well into their 30s by next offseason, and the options for their replacements are currently a 7th round rookie, a rookie UDFA, and a player who's missed the majority of his past three seasons with injury (dating back to college). The Bengals have traditionally not put much emphasis on signing premiere tight ends, but this could become an opportunity to look for a solid all-around TE.
  • And of course, any position where the team has high hopes for a player who doesn't develop as expected, or a player who regresses faster than expected. The highest likeliest situations here would be LB and LT.

Final Thoughts

The Bengals have been on a rollercoaster. From the lows of the Marvin Lewis -> Zac Taylor transition, the highs of the SB/AFCN appearances, and now the lows of whatever's happened to the team the past three years. The doomers have been feasting lately, eviscerating the team's ownership and front office at every opportunity. This offseason feels different, though. The haters are, by and large, content. The Bengals made some big moves and they addressed nearly every immediate need. They broke tradition by trading our away their first round pick, they signed quality free agents, and were opportunistic in the draft itself.

Even relatively small moves were applauded. It's hard to imagine any fanbase as excited as the Bengals' was for re-signing a 41 year old backup QB and a 30 year old guard for one season each. There's still some anxiety, around various players' performance, around Burrow's injury curses, and around how everything will come together, but the Bengals have put themselves in a solid position.

It's impossible to accurately predict the team's improvement, there are too many moving parts. But that's what the team needed. The Cincinnati offense will look mostly the same as last season, but the defense will be a whole new thing. It remains to be seen if things will be better, but the standards are low for the defense and it's very difficult for things to be worse. The fans are excited, the team is excited, and the expectations are high.

reddit.com
u/kitchensink108 — 3 days ago
▲ 27 r/bengals

2026 Offseason Summary

A few years ago I got in the habit of making free agency / offseason summary posts. With the offseason winding down, it's becoming decreasingly likely for there to be any more big surprises, at least until we start cutting down to the 53-man roster, so here are all the roster changes I could find as of now.

Players Acquired (Free Agency)

Pos Player Fmr Team Via Years/Money @ Average Per Year
ED Boye Mafe Seahawks Free Agent 3/60 @ $20m APY
DT Dexter Lawrence Giants Trade 3/70 @ $23m APY
S Bryan Cook Chiefs Free Agent 3/40 @ $13.4m APY
S Kyle Dugger Steelers Free Agent 1/1.4 @ $1.4m APY
DT Jonathan Allen Vikings Free Agent 2/25 @ $12.5m APY
WR Dohnte Meyers Roughriders CFL 3/3 @ $1m APY
QB Josh Johnson Commanders Free Agent 1/1.5 @ $1.5m APY
LB Swayze Bozeman Giants Waivers 1/1 @ $1m APY
CB Ja'Sir Taylor Jets Free Agent 1/1.2 @ $1.2m APY

Dexter Lawrence signed a 1-year extension on top of the 2 years he was already under-contract.

Players Acquired (Draft)

Pick Pos Player College Note
1.10 - Traded to NYG for Dexter Lawrence - NYG picked Francis Mauigoa (OL)
2.41 ED Cashius Howell Texas A&M -
3.72 CB Tacario Davis Washington -
4.110 - Traded to NYJ for 4.128 & 4.140 - NYJ picked Cade Klubnik (QB)
4.128 C Connor Lew Auburn From NYJ, see above
4.140 WR Colbie Young Georgia From NYJ, see above
5.149 - Traded to CLE for Joe Flacco & 6.199 - CLE picked Justin Jefferson (LB, not WR)
6.189 OL Brian Parker II Duke -
6.199 - Traded to NYJ, see above - SEA (after more trades) selected Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (WR)
7.221 TE Jack Endries Texas From the Logan Wilson trade
7.226 DT Landon Robinson Navy -

Players Acquired (UDFA)

Pos Player College
G Liam Brown Montana
S Isaiah Nwokobia SMU
RB Kentrel Bullock South Alabama
RB Jamal Haynes Georgia Tech
LB Jack Dingle Cincinnati
LB Eric Gentry South California
OT Christian Jones San Diego State
OT Corey Robinson II Arkansas
TE Josh Kattus Kentucky
WR Noah Thomas Georgia
CB Ceyair Wright Nebraska

Players Lost

Pos Player New Team Contract Comp Pick?
ED Trey Hendrickson Ravens 4/112 @ $28m APY Up to a R3
ED Joseph Ossai Jets 3/34 @ $11.5m APY Cancelled (Boye Mafe)
TE Noah Fant Saints 2/9 @ $4.3m APY Cancelled (Bryan Cook)
LG Cordell Volson Titans 1/2.4 @ $2.4m APY Up to a R7
CB Marco Wilson Dolphins 1/1.3 @ $1.3m APY -
CB Cam Taylor-Britt Colts 1/1.4 @ $1.4m APY -
RG Lucas Patrick Giants 1/1.4 @ $1.4m APY -
S Tycen Anderson Broncos 1/1.5 @ $1.5m APY -
S Geno Stone Bills 1/1.4 @ $1.4m APY -
ED Cam Sample 49ers 1/1.4 @ $1.4m APY -
QB Jake Browning Buccaneers 1/1.3 @ $1.3m APY -
C Seth McLaughlin Lions 1/0.9 @ $885k APY -
C Matt Lee None (Waived) - -

Usually not emphasizing Practice Squad players, but Seth McLaughlin seemed important enough to mention.

Notable Contract Updates

Pos Player Update Notes
LT Orlando Brown. Jr. Extended through 2028 @ $16m APY -
OT Cody Ford Reduced salary from $2.6m -> $1.3m -
RT Dalton Risner Re-signed for 2026 for $3.7m -
TE Tanner Hudson Re-signed for 2026 for $1.3m -
QB Joe Flacco Re-signed for 2026 for $6m 2 void years, $1.3m each
CB Jalen Davis Re-signed for 2026 for $1.5m -
WR Mitchell Tinsley Re-signed for 2026 for $1.1m -
WR Kendric Pryor Re-signed for 2026 for $1.1m -
RB Kendall Milton Re-signed for 2026 for $1.0m -
DT Kris Jenkins Jr. Activated from IR -
TE Erick All Jr. Activated from IR -

Where Are They Now?

Pos Player Status
DT DJ Reader Giants
WR Jermaine Burton Unsigned, met with Bills
DT Larry Ogunjobi Unsigned
OG Alex Cappa Unsigned
OG Kevin Zeitler Unsigned
RB Joe Mixon Unsigned
RT Jonah Williams Unsigned
LB Germaine Pratt Unsigned
LB Logan Wilson Retired

Only listing players whose status changed between last season and now.

Trivia

  • Tomorrow (Fri May 15), Josh Johnson will become the second 40+ year old QB on our team, and the second QB on our team who's also been on both BAL/CLE and not PIT.
  • This is the third time Josh Johnson has been on the Bengals. He's been signed to 14 different NFL teams and 4 different pro football leagues (NFL, UFL, AAF, XFL).
  • Swayze (21) Bozeman (20) would score very well in Scrabble if names were allowed. Depending on how it's played, Bozeman could also give a 50 point bonus for using all the player's tiles.
  • Two of our new players, Bryan Cook & Boye Mafe, have won Super Bowls. This season will be Cook's 3rd and Mafe's 2nd Super Bowl win.
  • Dohnte Meyers played college football for the Presbyterian Blue Hose and the Delta State Statesmen, and played in the CFL for the Saskatchewan Roughriders, and as such the Cincinnati Bengals might somehow be the most normal team name he's been on. For the record, Blue Hose is a reference to stockings, like many baseball teams (White Sox, Red Sox, Reds).
  • In 2024, Shemar Stewart / Cashius Howell / Shemar Turner (Bears R2 '25) / Nic Scourton (Panthers R2 '25) were all on the same d-line. For those curious, their sack counts were Stewart (1.5), Howell (4.0), Turner (2.0), Scourton (5.0).
  • Tacario Davis goes by "Bobo" due to a haircut growing up that looked like a bob cut.
  • Connor Lew is six months younger than YouTube. This fact is included here in case it makes you feel old.
  • Brian Parker II is not related to former NFL TE Brian Parker. He is, however, the cousin of NBA player Dereck Lively II.
  • Josh Kattus is credited with "doubling the adoption rate of animals at the Scott County Humane Society." Despite his name being pronounced "KAT-tus," I could find no information on whether he specialized in cat adoption. Most articles emphasize his work on the Humane Society's foster program.
  • Noah Thomas is the nephew of former NFL player Broderick Thomas and the great-nephew of Mike Singletary.
  • Isaiah Nwokobia attended a high school called Skyline in Dallas, TX.
  • Ohio ties: Bryan Cook, Brian Parker II, and Josh Kattus grew up in Cincinnati; Landon Robinson grew up near Akron; Cashius Howell attended Bowling Green for 3 years before transferring to Texas A&M; Jack Dingle attended UC.
reddit.com
u/kitchensink108 — 8 days ago
▲ 207 r/nfl

Introduction

This is a deep-dive analysis into Consensus Big Boards.

We spent last weekend arguing about Big Boards and whether this years' picks were reaches or steals based on that. Some of us have been arguing about whether they matter at all for much longer. Are they a great tool? Are they worthless? Should teams fire all their scouts and just draft off a CBB? Well, let's try to look into that a little bit.

Also, should I have posted this last week, when people cared more about draft rankings? Probably! But the post wasn't done yet, so here we are.

Methodology

I'm using NFL Mock Draft Database. There are other Consensus Big Boards out there, but it's generally the CBB for us armchair GMs. I also make use of the JackLich10 CBB just because it's better for seeing variability for each pick.

When discussing award winners, I'm using anyone who won or received 1/3 or more of the vote for MVP, OPOY, OROY, DPOY, or DROY, or anyone who was 1st or 2nd Team All Pro at any position as selected by the AP or PFWA. Instead of trying to use PFF Grades or EPA or other statistical way to estimate if a player is "good," I'm focusing on awards, but adding some leniency to increase the sample sizing.

When discussing contributors, I'm using anyone who, in at least one of their first two seasons, was listed as a starter for at least ten games, or was listed as active in a specialist (K, P, LS) role, or for the season played at least 1/3 of the snaps on their side of the ball (offense, defense, special teams).

When discussing pick variability, I'm incorporating the standard deviation of big board rankings for a player.

All data is from the ten years between 2016 and 2025. I've seen some other posts already comparing this year's CBB to the draft, usually with a bit different methodology than here, so I'm not going to get into this year's draft specifically.

I am only using the first 140 picks of the draft (or first 140 players on the CBB), which is roughly Rounds 1-4. Beyond that, people already know that picks will look unhinged and random.

Chart: How accurate are CBBs?

Let's start off with just checking how accurate CBBs are to the actual draft. This takes variability into account, so if some big boards rank you #20 but there are a few that put you at #9, #12, and #35, there'll be a wider range of picks where it's appropriate to be selected at. So for every pick 1-140, was that player selected within an "appropriate" range of their CBB rank? And the result is... ehh, sorta. The Top 20 is pretty good, the Top 40 has a little more variability but is still not too bad, but (as expected) it does get worse as the draft goes on. Within the Top 100, a player has about a 75ish percent chance of being selected near their CBB rank.

https://preview.redd.it/o8q4wkopzqyg1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e3b2fb32a76481371c07fead13dcc755b54a921c

That's better than nothing, but it definitely shows that you need to temper your expectations a little bit. Through Round 1 you're mostly above an 80% match.

Chart: How accurate are CBBs? Without Variability

https://preview.redd.it/3fb1xjsrzqyg1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=f53f596715caa5e7a1a021fb2ff9029f0dd44617

And this is why you want to take variability into account. This uses a custom formula to determine an appropriate range for a pick, +/- 4 + 0.1 * Pick Number without taking variability into account. Observe how it sucks. Observe how by the end of Round 1 you're already at worse than a coinflip. If you take specific CBB rankings at face value, this should be evidence that you're doing it wrong. We'll discuss other aspects of CBB accuracy below, but just from this, let's make it clear that expecting the 35th ranked player to be picked 35th, with no additional context or adjustment, is not a good strategy.

Chart: CBB Exact Matches

Let's take the above chart to the extreme, just for fun. How often is the CBB an exact match for a specific draft pick? As you might expect, rarely. Pick 1 usually happens, Pick 10 is the next most common (but still only 40%), and then the remainder of the chart is mostly nothing.

https://preview.redd.it/czzh81fwzqyg1.png?width=1101&format=png&auto=webp&s=66484c82e828e7152ac245f89f498502bdd8fd6a

You're looking at pick 140 there, I can tell. You're wondering who that is. That's Browns-Eagles-Storm-Stallions legend Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Another later match of note was David Montgomery at 73. On that matter, that patch of matches from 62-80 (JuJu to Martinas Rankin, for those curious) is kind of interesting. You have to imagine that's just an instance of data volatility and small sample sizes, I can't think of any logical reason why there would be no matches from 38-61, or 81-139, but six of them clustered together there.

Chart: Finding award winners

https://preview.redd.it/k5onjs140ryg1.png?width=1002&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1dd426c2f1d1626b3b55f676954d5c41738a0c4

This chart compares the cumulative number of award winners based on their draft position versus based on their CBB rank. You can see right around Pick 20, the draft starts to slightly eke out the CBB in terms of identifying future award winners, but the CBB recovers and stays strong all the way up to pick 100. Conveniently, Pick 100 is right around when things go off-the-rails, and the CBB never recovers. If you extrapolate this out to the full draft, I believe it keeps getting gradually worse for the CBB.

On a somewhat unrelated matter, note how by the end of Round 1, you've already seen more than half of the potential award winners get drafted. You'll continue to see award winners get drafted, all the way out to Round 7 and UDFA, but it's pretty damn top-heavy, as you'd expect. Every once in a while, someone will bring up the argument of whether it's better to have one early pick or a whole slew of mid-round picks. I'm not doing the math here to determine the ideal strategy there, but you can certainly tell that if you miss on your Round 1 pick, your odds of getting an elite player aren't dropping gradually, they're dropping precipitously.

Chart: Finding contributors

https://preview.redd.it/dl5hxnpi0ryg1.png?width=966&format=png&auto=webp&s=7cf9181d4dd0b408ce2b3ce79e1d3c9870c6b887

Let's loosen up the standards a bit, though. Instead of looking for award winners, basically the top players in the entire NFL, we just want players who can play. Players who are given a chance to make a solid contribution for a few games, and are at least good enough that the team doesn't immediately bench them for the rest of the season. This treats Justin Fields the same as Patrick Mahomes, and Trey Lance the same as Jermaine Burton.

Up until pick 60 or so, it's almost perfectly even. We can interpret that a little bit and say, if the CBB thinks a player is a Round 1 or Round 2 value, you're very likely to get value out of them. Similarly, if a player is drafted in those rounds, you'll likely get value. The end of Round 2 is where the division begins, however, and you'll see it gradually grow in the draft's favor for the remaining picks. That's the point where you have to start trusting the team a little more than the big board.

I find it interesting that award winners and contributors both start out very even, both diverge notably in favor of the draft, but contributors diverges about exactly one round earlier.

Chart: Reaches & Steals

Now let's ponder the age-old question, are you more likely to find a good player with a reach (because your team has insider knowledge and got their guy) or a steal (because other teams overlooked great value)? For those unfamiliar with the terminology (which is odd if you've read this far), a reach is when you pick someone who was expected to go later in the draft (so picking the 50th ranked guy at 30) and a steal is picking someone who was supposed to go earlier (e.g. picking the 25th ranked guy at 75).

For the record, the formula I'm using to calculate reaches results in a distribution that's roughly 1/4 reaches, 1/4 steals, 1/2 neutral.

... Players Percent
Reaches 523 24.7%
Steals 470 22.2%
Neutral 1124 53.1%

Here's a chart that takes a player's reach or steal value compared to the odds that that player becomes either a contributor or award winner. Reaches will have a negative value on the chart and steals a positive value depending on how extreme the steal/reach was. Note as well that certain outliers have been eliminated from the chart so that it's actually possible to read.

https://preview.redd.it/brzvod461ryg1.png?width=1046&format=png&auto=webp&s=3446f16d5f8b36f7aa8601bd18e74d1c2ca5dabd

This allows for some leniency but does not incorporate variability, because this part of the analysis is supposed to reflect people's kneejerk reactions to a draft pick, and no one's hearing a player's name get called and thinking "that was within 1 standard deviation of expected."

You can see (maybe unexpectedly) a preference for reaches rather than steals, seen stronger in the Contributor chart than the Awards chart. This isn't just because of low data counts, although some volatility is probably from that.

... Contributor Award Winner Sample Size
Close reaches 62.18% 8.97% 156
Close steals 56.25% 7.81% 128
All reaches 55.45% 5.54% 523
All steals 48.72% 4.47% 470
Neutral picks 63.52% 11.83% 1124

I don't remember enough stats from high school to determine whether this is a statistically-significant difference, but it does seem to be consistent, at least within the data I have. That said, there seems to be a sweet spot right in the middle, in that -10 to 10 range (again, this is more complicated than -10 or 10 raw points from their CBB rank). Once you're out of that range, there's a clear decline the further out you go in either direction.

Conclusion

You can take what you want out of this, I'm not an authority on anything, I'm a hobbyist posting this for free on Reddit. That said, my personal take from this is that Consensus Big Boards (represented at least by NFL Mock Draft Database) are pretty reliable up, particularly in terms of predicting success, through the first two rounds of a draft, and in some regards up through Round 3 as well.

Their accuracy in predicting the draft order itself is a bit low, so you really, truly cannot get caught up in specific rankings. Think of each player as being in a fairly broad range, but that maybe 15 vs 20 or 40 vs 50 isn't as big a difference as it seems.

Additionally, if you're trying to analyze reaches versus steals right after the draft, you're better off stopping after Round 3. At that point, the odds tilt in the favor of the draft, e.g. if the CBB has a player ranked 150 and he gets picked 200, the draft is more likely to be right.

Conversely, you shouldn't get too upset about reaches or focus so much on nabbing steals. If it's a small reach or steal, you're probably in good shape either way. If you think you've landed amazing value because a guy slipped 50 spots, maybe don't get too excited. Steals really don't work out as often as you'd hope. The best value is found nearish to where the CBB ranks them.

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u/kitchensink108 — 20 days ago