u/klymaxx45

Big expiry Friday. 16 signals (13 Primary and 3 Watchlist) had April 24 expiry on the book. Here is how it played.

Four I held into close, all landed deep ITM:

AMD 265C +3196% (peak +3396%), MRVL 135C +731% (peak +894%), BE 185C +427% (peak +525%), MU 460C +168% (peak +239%).

Full 16-signal cohort, scored two ways:

• Hold to expiry: 9 wins / 7 losses, average signal return +345%
• Strict -50% stop: 6 wins / 10 losses, average signal return +338%

Both views land within about 7 percentage points of each other on aggregate. The stop saves you on the obvious blow-ups (SNDK 1050C and GLD 450C went to -99% and -100% under hold; the stop caps both at -50%) but the cost shows up on bounce-backs.

Biggest swing between views was NVDA 200C. Flagged at $4.00 on April 15. Drew down hard mid-week (intraday low $0.85, well below the -50% floor) and would have stopped under the strict rule. But it rallied back on today's semi rip and closed at +106% by expiry. Hold-to-expiry catches that. Strict -50% does not. Same signal, same week, +156 percentage points of difference depending on the rule.

Carrying into Monday: semi-heavy book (TSM, INTC, ARM) plus CRWV seeing fresh institutional put flow at midday that I am watching. Burry disclosed semi ETF puts on a 13F this afternoon. If that catches a weekend headline, semi cohort gaps lower at Monday open. INTC at 7 DTE is the sensitive one.

FOMC Tuesday (hold priced 80%), Mag7 earnings start Tuesday after close.

Every signal ends one of two ways: rode to expiry, or hit the -50% stop. Nothing else.

Full book on the dashboard.

Big expiry Friday. 16 signals (13 Primary and 3 Watchlist) had April 24 expiry on the book. Here is how it played.

Four I held into close, all landed deep ITM:

AMD 265C +3196% (peak +3396%), MRVL 135C +731% (peak +894%), BE 185C +427% (peak +525%), MU 460C +168% (peak +239%).

Full 16-signal cohort, scored two ways:

• Hold to expiry: 9 wins / 7 losses, average signal return +345%
• Strict -50% stop: 6 wins / 10 losses, average signal return +338%

Both views land within about 7 percentage points of each other on aggregate. The stop saves you on the obvious blow-ups (SNDK 1050C and GLD 450C went to -99% and -100% under hold; the stop caps both at -50%) but the cost shows up on bounce-backs.

Biggest swing between views was NVDA 200C. Flagged at $4.00 on April 15. Drew down hard mid-week (intraday low $0.85, well below the -50% floor) and would have stopped under the strict rule. But it rallied back on today's semi rip and closed at +106% by expiry. Hold-to-expiry catches that. Strict -50% does not. Same signal, same week, +156 percentage points of difference depending on the rule.

Carrying into Monday: semi-heavy book (TSM, INTC, ARM) plus CRWV seeing fresh institutional put flow at midday that I am watching. Burry disclosed semi ETF puts on a 13F this afternoon. If that catches a weekend headline, semi cohort gaps lower at Monday open. INTC at 7 DTE is the sensitive one.

FOMC Tuesday (hold priced 80%), Mag7 earnings start Tuesday after close.

Every signal ends one of two ways: rode to expiry, or hit the -50% stop. Nothing else.

Full book on the dashboard.

[Week of Apr 13-17, 2026] DarkFlow Smart Money Signals - Full Results (11 closed, 10W/1L, 90.9% win rate)

Every trade logged. Every loss shown. No cherry-picking. Signals close publicly only at calendar expiry.

This week's expirations (April 13-17, 2026):

Closed trades - primary signals:

Ticker	Direction	Strike / Exp	Entry	Peak %	Final %	W/L
AMZN	Bullish	235C 4/17	$2.35	+222.8%	+93.7%	WIN
SLV	Bullish	68C 4/17	$0.57	+168.4%	+115.8%	WIN
SOXL	Bullish	73C 4/17	$1.50	+427.4%	+170.2%	WIN
WULF	Bullish	19.5C 4/17	$0.47	+89.4%	-100.0%	WIN (peak)
INTC	Bullish	64C 4/17	$0.43	+1360.5%	+353.5%	WIN
MU	Bullish	430C 4/17	$2.90	+1044.1%	+412.7%	WIN

Closed trades - watchlist signals (conviction 60-74):

Ticker	Direction	Strike / Exp	Entry	Peak %	Final %	W/L
INTC	Bullish	62C 4/17	$2.10	+291.9%	+92.6%	WIN
SNDK	Bullish	860C 4/17	$43.70	+138.1%	+24.9%	WIN
NBIS	Bullish	140C 4/17	$5.20	+421.2%	+348.8%	WIN
AMZN	Bullish	235C 4/17	$2.35	+444.9%	+236.9%	WIN

Closed trades - hedge signals:

Ticker	Direction	Strike / Exp	Entry	Peak %	Final %	W/L
PLTR	Bearish	130P 4/17	$3.20	-16.2%	-99.3%	LOSS

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Week summary: 11 closed (calendar expiry) | 10 wins | 1 loss | 90.9% win rate

Primary signals only (conviction 75+): 6 closed | 6 wins | 0 losses | 100.0% win rate

Biggest winner: $INTC 64C 4/17 +1360.5% peak Biggest loser: $PLTR 130P 4/17 hedge put, peak never went positive (-16.2% peak, expired -99.3%)

Note on Peak % vs Final %: Peak % is the highest return a signal reached, it measures whether the thesis was correct. Final % is the value at calendar expiry. WIN = peak moved above 0% (thesis worked). LOSS = peak never went positive. A signal can peak deep in the money and still expire OTM (WULF is the example this week). That is transparent, the peak is logged in real time.

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Open positions (still live as of Friday close):

This week's entries:

Ticker	Direction	Strike / Exp	Entry	Current %	Peak %
MRVL	Bullish	135C 4/24	$3.48	+108.3%	+108.3%
SNDK	Bullish	1050C 4/24	$34.00	-75.6%	0.0%
ORCL	Bullish	160C 4/24	$4.60	+243.9%	+434.8%
CRWV	Bullish	120C 4/24	$3.45	+6.4%	+91.3%
BE	Bullish	185C 4/24	$8.84	+192.1%	+397.7%
NBIS	Bullish	165C 4/24	$5.66	-32.3%	+88.2%
NVDA	Bullish	200C 4/24	$4.00	+8.7%	+11.7%
GLD	Bullish	450C 4/24	$5.50	-29.1%	-2.7%
MSFT*	Bullish	375C 5/15	$6.50	+696.6%	+818.0%
AAPL	Bullish	270C 4/24	$2.00	+82.5%	+146.0%
AMD	Bullish	265C 4/24	$2.50	+555.2%	+623.6%
HIMS	Bullish	26C 5/1	$1.70	+144.1%	+177.6%
TSM	Bullish	380C 5/22	$12.80	+17.4%	+39.8%
AMD	Bullish	285C 4/24	$4.87	+3.3%	+17.5%
GOOGL	Bullish	340C 4/24	$4.45	+48.3%	+52.4%
INTC*	Bullish	70C 5/1	$4.10	-2.9%	+20.7%
MRK*	Bearish	113P 4/24	$0.90	-67.8%	0.0%

Carryover from prior weeks (still open):

Ticker	Direction	Strike / Exp	Entry	Current %	Peak %
CRWV	Bullish	110C 5/8	$4.00	+222.0%	+319.0%
CRWV*	Bullish	95C 5/8	$7.70	+208.7%	+256.4%
EOSE*	Bullish	7C 5/15	$1.23	-10.6%	+24.4%

*Watchlist signal (conviction 60-74).

All open positions run to their calendar expiry. The only public close rule is expiry. The dashboard has a "50% stop" display toggle for readers who want to model a hard-stop view, peak % is never capped.

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Full dashboard with live option pricing: https://darkflowsignals.github.io

All signals are logged at time of signal, not retroactively. The dashboard timestamps every entry. Pull up any date in the history and check it against the chart.

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This is a weekly post. AMA about the methodology.

EDIT (Apr 19): Corrected the closed-trades table. The original version conflated private position management with the public close rule. Public close is calendar expiry only, and this week that meant 11 expirations on 4/17 (10W/1L, 90.9%). Signals still tracking past Friday stay in the open positions table with live peak + current through their own expiry.

Friday closed out. Held the book through the TSMC print, added three fresh entries, and MSFT finally did what the call accumulation said it would back on Tuesday.

MSFT 375C 5/15 peaked at +818% today. Entered at $6.50 on 4/15 when the call flow was extreme but the chart was still basing. Trimmed 2/3 at +100% and +200% per plan, runner still on. That's the one from this week that tells the story: you do not need to chase the biggest score, you need the flow to agree with you.

CRWV kept printing. Both the 95C and 110C runners from last week are over +200% current, peaks +256% and +319%. Already scaled per plan. CRWV 120C 4/24 closed today at +11% realized, peak was +91%. Not every runner makes the full move.

Three new entries today: AMD 285C 4/24 at $4.87 after TSMC confirmed the AI capex cycle with guide raised to $52-56B, GOOGL 340C 4/24 at $4.45 on extreme call conviction, and INTC 70C 5/1 at $4.10 on the chip sector tailwind. GOOGL already +37% current. AMD quiet. INTC opened softer than expected, underwater but inside the stop.

HIMS 26C 5/1 (entered 4/16) crossed +100% today, peak +177%. Trimmed 2/3 per plan. AAPL 270C at +82%, approaching trim zone.

Honest on the losses: MRK 113P hit the -50% hard stop, pharma tariff rhetoric was flat intraday. FOMC blackout runs through April 29, so no Fed speaker risk next week. Letting the book work.

AMD was the story today. Flow lined up this morning across calls, no put side worth mentioning. Entered the $265C Apr24 at $2.50. It peaked at +624% before the close. Same-day signal, same-day print. Doesn't happen often and worth writing down when it does.

Apr17 expiry day ran in the background. MU $430C entered at $3.38 on Apr 10, expired at $447 for +413%. NBIS $140C at $5.20 expired at $163 for +349%. INTC doubled up, $62C at $2.10 closed +93% and the $64C at $0.43 closed +354%. That $0.43 entry was the kind of far OTM lotto that only works when the flow actually tells you something. It did.

Two AMZN Apr17 entries from different days both expired ITM, +94% and +237%. SOXL $73C expired at $84 for +170%. SNDK $860C came in smaller at +25%, still green.

Also cleaned up ORCL, BE, and MRVL on the Apr24 side. ORCL peaked +335%, BE peaked +398%, MRVL peaked +88%. Trailing exits on all three.

Misses to own. WULF $19.5C expired OTM at $18.88, full -100%. It never found the bid, flow died after the first day. GLD hit the -51% hard stop, gold gave back the run and the rule kicked in. No debating it.

Macro was actually strong. Philly Fed printed 26.7 against a 10.3 estimate, highest since Jan 2025. Jobless claims 207K vs 218K. IP slipped -0.5% but nobody cared. What was interesting was the muted tape reaction. Risk-on held, but the indexes didn't rip the way the data suggested they should have. Feels like positioning into NFLX after close.

NFLX reports tonight with 6.5% implied. Not playing the event, watching the tech reaction into tomorrow.

Multiple active signals still open. Dashboard has current status on everything.

Best single day I've had running this system. BE went from $8.84 to $37.31 on the April 24 185c. Flagged it at open based on dark pool activity and the Oracle fuel cell deal catalyst. +322% in one session. Took most off, keeping one contract.

MU is at +1034% on the 430c from last Thursday. That one's getting closed before expiry risk eats it. NBIS 140c at +337%, same deal. SOXL 73c at +207%.

Not all roses though. SNDK 1050c I opened this morning is down 20%. I knew the entry was elevated but the triple convergence signal was too clean to ignore. Holding for the Nasdaq-100 inclusion April 20. If it doesn't work I'll eat it.

INTC runner from the 64c got trailed out at +200% this morning. Stock dropped 3.4% today on profit taking after a 23% run. System caught the exit before the pullback.

8 open positions above 100% right now. 2 closed losses on the books (PLTR put at -64.7%, SLV call at -49.8%). Not hiding anything.

Full track record, every win, every loss, every stop: https://darkflowsignals.github.io/

What showed up on SanDisk today is hard to ignore.

Three separate institutional data sources lit up on the same ticker at the same time. Dark pool block prints totaling over $33 million across two scanners. Options flow at $95 million in total premium with 71 sweep orders. And a third dark pool feed confirmed it independently with four separate block orders in premarket alone. When one source flags a name, it's interesting. When all three converge on the same stock on the same day, someone knows something or is positioning for an event they consider inevitable.

That event is the Nasdaq-100 inclusion on April 20.

Here's what that means mechanically. Every index fund, ETF, and passive vehicle tracking the Nasdaq-100 has to buy SNDK shares. That's hundreds of billions in index-tracking capital creating forced demand. The smart money doesn't wait for the official add date. They front-run it, which is exactly what today's flow looks like.

Now the chart. $952 as of yesterday's close, up 11.8% on the session and 34% over five days. Yes, it's extended. RSI is 87 on the hourly, 72 on the daily, 78 on the weekly. By any normal standard, this is overbought. But this isn't a normal setup. Parabolic moves driven by structural catalysts (forced index buying + NAND shortage) can stay overbought for weeks. The stock is printing new all-time highs with rising OBV across every timeframe. There is no overhead resistance because there's no prior supply to absorb.

Support sits around $710 from the prior consolidation base. That's a long way down, which tells you how much momentum is behind this move. The fundamental case is equally aggressive. NAND bit demand is growing 20-22% this year against supply growth of 15-17%. That shortage persists through 2028 based on current fab capacity. Gross margins are expected at 65-67% for Q3 versus 26% a year ago. That's a 40-point expansion in one year. Earnings drop April 30.

The stock is up 301% year to date. Up 30x in twelve months. Those numbers sound insane until you look at the margin trajectory and realize the market is still catching up to the earnings power here.

My read: the institutional positioning today is about April 20, not April 14. They're locking in exposure ahead of forced passive buying. The chart is stretched but the structural bid underneath it hasn't even started yet. If you're looking for a pullback entry, $850 to $900 would be ideal, but this name may not give you one before the inclusion date.

Risk is straightforward. A hot PPI number this morning at 8:30 AM could dip the whole market. Iran headline risk is real but institutions are clearly positioned through it given 100% call-side flow in premarket SPX blocks. And yes, if NAND pricing disappoints at earnings on April 30, this unwinds fast. The stop loss on any options position here should be 50% of premium paid.

I'm watching the $1050 strike for April 24 expiry. It's aggressive but gives you exposure through the index add date with a few days of buffer.

Been tracking institutional options flow on NBIS (Nebius) this week and wanted to share what I'm seeing.

The flow:

NBIS got flagged on April 10 with heavy call accumulation at the $140 strike, April 17 expiry. These weren't small retail orders. Large block prints, above-ask purchases, strategic positioning ahead of what turned out to be a massive catalyst week. The institutional read was clear before the move happened.

Why it matters:

Nebius just signed a $27B AI infrastructure deal with Meta ($12B in dedicated capacity starting 2027), received a $2B strategic NVIDIA investment, and completed a $4.34B convertible debt raise that fully funds 2026 capex. Smart money was accumulating calls before the full re-rating played out.

Technical setup:

Price is at $145.19, pressing against the 52-week high at $149.82. Trading 39% above the 50-day MA ($104) and 153% above the 200-day MA ($57.20). The spread is extended, but the golden cross has been intact since January. RSI(14) at 64.5, elevated but not overbought. MACD at +2.58 with expanding histogram. Volume on April 11 was 25.78M against a 15.49M average, 1.66x normal on an up day.

Key levels:

Resistance: $149.82 (52-week high). Above that, $163 is consensus target. Clean breakout above $150 on volume opens a measured move toward $170-175 based on the March consolidation range.

Support: $131.72 (intraday low, first demand zone). $120 is the March breakout level. 50-day MA at $104 is the line in the sand for trend integrity.

My position:

Long calls. Entry at $5.22, currently at $9.65. Hard stop at 50% of premium. If the thesis breaks below $131 on a daily close, I'm out.

The broader thesis:

This isn't just a single ticker play. The hyperscaler AI buildout is accelerating, tariff exemptions are protecting the semiconductor supply chain, and independent GPU cloud providers like Nebius are positioned as alternatives to the hyperscalers themselves. Institutions are pricing in revenue visibility that most retail hasn't modeled yet.