Quiet Monday before the FOMC binary, but the book ran Recap from my desk for Monday April 27.
0 new entries today. I watched a tape that wanted to hedge, not bet direction. The loudest flow into the close was both-sides positioning: SPY puts, GLD $430P 5/8 at $824K premium with 9 DTE, AMD $335P burst, ADBE put, NVDA two-way at high score on both call and put strikes. That signature reads as portfolio defense into Wednesday's FOMC plus the mega-cap tech earnings stack Tue through Thu, not a directional regime change.
I do not force a primary into a binary catalyst window with the read mid-pack. Tuesday is the last clean entry window before Wednesday at 11 AM PT.
The book ran. NVDA $210C 5/15 crossed +200% peak on the AI semi rally and is the headline mover today, currently sitting +233% unrealized. Six other positions stayed in scaled-runner mode: MSFT $375C 5/15 at +713%, INTC $70C 5/1 at +240%, HIMS $26C 5/1 at +150%, TSM $380C 5/22 at +170%, CRWV $110C 5/8 at +173%, CRWV $95C 5/8 at +162%.
Watchlist actions today.
- INTC $85P 5/1 cut at midday. Spot held above the $80 invalidation with chart strong. Thesis broken, removed. AMD $347.5C 5/1 invalidated. Morning rule was clear: invalidates on a break under 340 pre-FOMC. Rule triggered. A re-evaluation post-FOMC is a fresh setup.
- NVDL $112C 5/1 added at midday. Trigger: NVDA close above $215 plus broad-tape strength holding into FOMC. Sized as watchlist with leveraged-vehicle caution.
- AXTI $84C 5/1 watchlist hit the -50% stop pill on tracking. Watchlist signals are tracking only, no real position was opened, so this is informational. Continues tracking through expiry on the public dashboard.
Tuesday plan. Defensive on new entries. Selective on chart confirmation. Today's flow surfaced one swing-DTE candidate to test in tomorrow's morning scan: GLD $430P 5/8, $824K premium, but the directional thesis (gold fade) contradicts the geopolitical bid. Need a clean read before promoting, so it carries as a watchlist seed not a primary.
The book has the upside represented through runners and the IWM $265P 5/15 as an implicit hedge if Wednesday turns hawkish. That is the position into FOMC.
How I close signals. Public dashboard tracks every signal through expiry at darkflowsignals.com. Two outcomes: rides to expiry, or stops at -50% of entry. Nothing else.
Catalyst board for the back half of the week: CB Consumer Confidence Tuesday 10 AM ET, FOMC decision Wednesday 11 AM PT plus Powell presser, AMZN expected Thursday after close, PCE Friday. Iran / Hormuz overnight headlines are the wild card; oil bid persists, WTI June settled $96.37.
Stay disciplined into the binary. The book's job for the next 48 hours is to carry, not to chase.