

Race Predictions Wonky?
I’ve been a Garmin user for more than a decade had a Fenix 3, upgraded to a Fenix 6s and recently scored a Fenix 7s. As a female distance runner and outdoor enthusiast who wears her watch all day everyday, I am a diehard MIP display. It breaks my heart that Garmin doesn’t want to do smaller bezel MIPs anymore but that is a rant for another day.
I have used the race predictor many marathon training seasons and usually appreciate its accuracy within 5-10 minutes for longer distances. This season…the algorithm has lost its mind. I haven’t broke a 6 minute mile in a decade, and the race predictor is telling me I can do a sub 16 minute 5k 🤣. That is after running at 10k today at a 9:10 pace.
All jokes aside. I am tracking runs, about 3-4 a week averaging around 30 miles a week- usually 1 run that is 13+ miles. A few weeks ago I did a sub 2 hour half, when the night before race day it predicted a 2:03 (which felt right). I would expect the prediction to be +\- 5 minutes of my actual time. But that prediction was after it told be I was doing a 1:18 earlier that same week😂.
Usually, I feel like Garmin trolls me, so I guess this is a refreshing change of pace. 🤷♀️ But I kinda liked its tough love. Now I just feel like I am not living up to my “potential” 😔.
I am running for the fun of it. I am not breaking my back to get a time. I do my miles each week as fast or slow as my body wants to. I do however like to set goals for myself and track my progress. Garmin has always come through, but this season something is up, and I am trying to figure out why.
Anyone having the same issue? I’ve been doing my own math so I can track my own expected pace, so I don’t need help with that. I am wondering if they changed the algorithm to calculate it…Or if AI is doing the calculation and it’s confused. I guess it is more: I have this fancy expensive tool on my wrist and my mental math estimates are more reliable.
Especially interested in female athletes experiences! I’ve been wondering if Garmin has a data imbalance (more data from male users) and if that is effecting this and other features I have noticed were less accurate than they used to be. Wondering if they have lost the plot a bit for female users or if this is a more universal experience.
Thanks for reading!