An analytics-based case for Ebuka Okorie in the lottery
As we all know, small guards are losing value in today's NBA. While some see a new meta, I think others will see opportunities for value. Ebuka Okorie is listed #26 on nbadraftnetwork's consensus big board, #33 on No Ceilings, and #23 on The Ringer's draft guide. Here, I argue that Ebuka Okorie is being undervalued throughout the process and is a lottery-level talent. Below are the stats of Ebuka Okorie and a recent top-10 pick. It's a lot of numbers, so you can go through it if you want, but I'll summarize and attempt to put into context below.
Player A: 6'1" with a 6'8" wingspan at 186 lbs
Per 100: 39/6/6 on 59 TS% (3.2 STOCKs, 3.1 TOV); 19.0 AST'd%
35.4% on 9.6 3PA/100 (0.35 3Pr) | 56.3% on 13.1 rim FGA/100 (6.4 UA FGA) | 83.2% on 12.3 FTA/100 (44.9 FTr)
23.9 AST% | 0.8 AST/USG | 1.9 AST/TO
6.2 TREB% | 3.7 STOCK% | 1.4 STK/FOUL
+8.6 RAPM | 10.6 BPM | .208 WS/40
Player B: 6'2.5" with a 6'5.5" wingspan at 180 lbs
Per 100: 32/8/8 on 56 TS% (3.3 STOCKs, 6.5 TOV); 27.4 AST'd%
28.4% on 7.5 3PA/100 (0.32 3Pr) | 53.0% on 10.4 rim FGA/100 (4.1 UA FGA) | 85.1% on 12.0 FTA/100 (51.8 FTr)
28.6 AST% | 0.9 AST/USG | 1.2 AST/TO
8.3 TREB% | 3.6 STOCK% | 0.9 STK/FOUL
+4.6 RAPM | 5.9 BPM | .132 WS/40
Player A is Ebuka Okorie, and player B is Jeremiah Fears, the #7 pick in the 2025 NBA draft. I compared the two in an earlier post, but I want to expand here. Both players' main selling point is that they're a walking rim touch. Among NBA guards in their final year of college, Okorie ranks in the 99th percentile for both total and unassisted rim volume. He has a great handle and incredible acceleration, both in his first step and out of his bag of counters, that allows him to easily get past his man. His body control is elite, allowing him to stay balanced weaving through and bouncing off multiple bodies to get his shot up. His 56.2% FG% at the rim is underwhelming, but it requires context. He routinely shared the court with 2-4 complete non-shooters at Stanford, meaning every finish was highly contested. He also routinely drew contact, with a 76th percentile FTr that made Okorie dives to the rim some of the most efficient offense (0.98 PPP) his team could generate.
Okorie is also a better shooter than people might think. He only shot 35.4% on 3PA, but not all 3PA are created equal. Nearly 60% of Okorie's threes were off the dribble, second only to Bennet Stirtz among his peers. He shot an impressive 34% off these extremely difficult looks (vs 38% on C&S threes), and only 14% of his 3PA were considered "unguarded." Per Stephen Gillespie of No Ceilings: "Of Okorie’s 503 total field goal attempts, under 19% were assisted. For comparison, that’s significantly lower than peers like Darius Acuff Jr. (36.8% shots assisted), Mikel Brown Jr. (36.6%), Keaton Wagler (26.2%), Kingston Flemings (24.8%), Labaron Philon (25.9%), and Bennett Stirtz (31.1%)." His 9.7 3PA/100 (67th percentile), 42.4% on 4.6 midrange FGA (75th percentile), and 83.2 FT% (74th percentile) are other strong shooting indicators. Okorie wasn't chucking for empty-calorie box-score numbers either, but rather out of necessity. Stanford's offense was 13.1 points better with Okorie on the court, putting him at the 95th percentile. While Okorie's efficiency isn't as high as some of his peers', I'd argue that his output is even more impressive given the circumstances.
The ability to generate advantages is a prerequisite for stardom, and Okorie is one of the best advantage generators in the class. Okorie ranked in the 88th percentile among isolation scorers, which held to the 83rd percentile when including passes out of isolation drives. This shows he's usually making the right reads when deciding to pass out of a rotating defense or take it all the way to the rim. Okorie's raw playmaking numbers aren't great. He posted a 24 AST% (45th percentile), 0.8 AST/USG (29th percentile), and 1.9 AST/TO (56th percentile), but it's important to keep in mind that Stanford only had three other players with >60 3PA and no lob threat. Dylan Harper was in a similar situation last year and posted a 27 AST%, 0.9 AST/USG, and 1.7 AST/TO. Harper was/is a better passer than Okorie, but the point stands. Point guards for awful teams aren't going to have great raw playmaking metrics.
The modern NBA is all about the possession battle, and Okorie is a huge asset in this department. Having no secondary creator meant Okorie was constantly getting blitzed and trapped at Stanford. Despite this attention and massive dribble-drive volume, Okorie posted the lowest TOV% of any high-usage (USG% > 30) freshman since 2008. The only other freshmen to post an AST% > 20 and TOV% < 15 were Cooper Flagg, Cam Boozer, and AJ Dybantsa. Okorie obviously had a far worse supporting cast than any of these premier freshmen. Stanford's TOV% skyrocketed from 11.9 (94th percentile) to 20.5 (1st percentile) when Okorie left the court. This was the greatest impact on turnover rate of any player in college basketball, per CBB Analytics. Okorie's 2.7 AST%/TOV% was insane for someone with his responsibility. Compare that to Jeremiah Fears (1.6), or even Dylan Harper (2.1), who played similarly massive roles on dysfunctional teams. If you're looking for a primary ball handler, Okorie's ability to eat massive usage while preserving possessions is a huge plus.
Defense will always be the biggest question for Okorie, but there is hope. Okorie is only 6'2" but recorded a 6'8" wingspan at the combine and was a good defensive event creator for his size. His 2.7 STL% (61st percentile) and 1.0 BLK% (64th percentile) were strong numbers for a guard, and his 1.4 STK/FOUL (94th percentile) was elite. Again, his numbers are comparable to Harper (who got more blocks but fouled more frequently) and better than Fears. His -2.2 DRAPM also ranks in the 66th percentile. Additionally, Okorie was an average rebounder for an NBA guard. I won't pretend I've been grinding Okorie's defensive film, but everyone I trust has said that effort and attention aren't concerns. He will always be targeted for his limited size, but I don't think Okorie will be a complete liability out there. Okorie is built like Deuce McBride and can be a similarly effective defender.
In summary, Okorie is a scoring PG who put up huge numbers on respectable efficiency in extremely adverse circumstances. Like Fears, Okorie has a special ability to get to the rim/line, and his FG% should improve with NBA spacing. He's an even better shooter than Fears, particularly off the dribble, which will make him a nightmare in the screen-and-roll game. He isn't as dynamic a passer, but he is significantly better at taking care of the ball. Okorie also has a longer wingspan, greater stock/foul numbers, and superior impact metrics. Okorie has his flaws, but I think he's a lottery talent hiding in plain sight. If Jeremiah Fears is worth the #7 pick, why is Okorie projected in the mid-20s?