r/NBAtradeideas

Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/nbas-draft-lottery-reform-proposal-includes-looking-to-2025-as-start-of-draft-streaks-172641425.html

The latest version of the NBA’s Draft Lottery reform proposal has been sent to owners ahead of their May 28 vote, according to multiple league sources. The “3-2-1” proposal is largely the same as originally reported, and details have emerged on a rule that had previously lacked clarity. First, here’s what’s the same:

• There will be 37 lottery balls allocated to 16 teams. The bottom three teams receive two (5.4% odds), teams four to 10 receive three (8.1%), the ninth and 10th play-in seeds in each conference would receive two (5.4%), and the loser of the seven vs. eight play-in game would receive one (2.7%).

• All 16 picks would be drawn in the lottery. The three teams with the worst records can pick no lower than 12th. Every other team can land first to 16th.

• Teams that trade picks are not allowed to protect slots 12, 13, 14, or 15.

• Adam Silver will have more power to punish tanking by altering lottery odds or changing where a team is picking.

The above proposed rules remain exactly as they were written when the NBA first made this 3-2-1 pitch in early May. But there is also a rule stating that no team can land first in two consecutive drafts, or in the top five in three consecutive drafts.

Front offices have been wondering: Does the streak attach to the team holding the pick on lottery night or to the original team whose record is attached to the pick?

The streak attaches to the original team, according to league sources. In other words, if Team A has Team B’s pick in the 2027 draft as a result of a trade and that Team B pick lands first, then Team B’s own pick in 2028 would not be eligible to land first, whether it’s retained by Team B or owned by a different team. But Team A, by virtue of selecting first using Team B’s pick in 2027, would still be eligible to pick first in 2028 with its own pick or any other team’s pick.

“In the event a team's pick is drawn in the lottery in a position where it is not permitted to be, then such team’s pick would be moved down to the first permissible position,” the league wrote in its proposal sent to teams. Continuing the above example, this would mean that if Team B popped up first in the 2028 draft, that pick would automatically be moved to the second pick instead.

Additionally, the NBA has decided to start the clock on these two-year and three-year streaks by looking back to the 2025 and 2026 drafts, according to league sources. In practice, this would mean if Washington wins the lottery again in 2027, it moves to second.

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Imagine if the Milwaukee Bucks miss the playoffs again next year. The swap rights to their 2027 first is owned by the New Orleans Pelicans and the swap rights to the Bucks’ 2028 first is owned by the Portland Trail Blazers. On 2027 lottery night, if that pick lands first, that means the Pelicans are awarded that pick. Under the current proposal, that would mean in 2028, the Blazers can’t receive the first pick — despite making that trade in 2023 when Damian Lillard was sent to Milwaukee.

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The top-five pick rule will date back to 2025. The Utah Jazz picked fifth in 2025 and second in 2026. Under the new rule, they can’t land in the top five in 2027.

But the Jazz traded that pick to the Memphis Grizzliesin February for Jaren Jackson Jr., which means Memphis won’t be able to receive it since streaks will be triggered by the original team, not the team holding the pick. Two issues here.

First, the framework. The NBA explains this rule under a section titled “Pick Restrictions For Repeat Lottery Winners.” Is landing the fifth pick really a winner? One year ago, the Jazz were distraught when their pick landed fifth, because the true franchise-changers that teams want to win are commonly landed with the first or second pick. In the future, if a team ends up fifth one year, then fourth the next, should they really be punished for landing first in the third year? Or even fifth again? I would argue no, that the top-five rule reaches too far.

I am understanding of wanting to prevent a team from picking first in consecutive years. But anything beyond that feels like a massive overreach that could cause more problems than intended when the goal is supposed to be to eliminate tanking.

Second, there’s the reality that the Jazz did trade that pick. Now the Grizzlies have it — through the rights of a pick-swap structure. But if this rule passes, Memphis wouldn’t be able to receive an unprotected pick. Grizzlies fans would obviously be crushed by the news. This pick was the most valuable of the assets Memphis got back for one of its stars, and it happened under a set of rules that didn’t include a three-year streak cap. That Jazz-to-Grizzlies pick is being retroactively devalued because of a league’s arbitrary decision to start the clock in 2025, but it also gives us an example of what could happen in future years to any team.

For example, in 2029 the Houston Rockets own the swap rights to an unprotected first-round pick via the Phoenix Suns that was acquired in return for Kevin Durant. The Suns were a play-in team this year, and they realistically could be again — or miss the playoffs entirely — in each of the next two seasons. If their 2027 first ends up landing fifth, and then their 2028 first lands third, that would mean the pick Houston traded for can’t end up in the top five in 2029. A trade that Houston made in July 2025 just got worse in May 2026.
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I’m all-in on the 3-2-1 reform. Flattened odds, draft relegation and hard caps on consecutive top picks are rules that give the NBA a real shot of finally putting an end to tanking. But the proposal hasn’t been approved yet. Owners don’t vote until Thursday. There’s still time to iron out the wrinkles.

I don’t see Heat as a true Giannis contender as they don’t have assets to please teams in full rebuild, but they have some good players who can still contribute.

In this case, Pelinka refuses to give Lebron another 50/y 1+1, he is insulted, calls old Pat and forces his trade to Heat vis SAT. In exchange Lakers get a solid starter with defense in Wiggins and 2nd round pick for their service.

Then Heat send expiring Herro to Dallas in exchange for Kyrie. Tyler is much younger, he fits in Coops timeline better, he is a former all star and he white. Mavericks also get 13 pick so now they have 2 lottery picks in historically stacked draft.

Mitchell-Kyrie-Bron-Bam-Ware.

Can this team get to NBA Finals?

Charlotte gets an inside presence and a vet, Min gets a better offensive center and a point guard without hampering its defense. Boston gets a true defensive center. Mavs get spacing and defense around Cooper Flagg. You could send Tre Mann Minnesota's way if needed.

Twolves get a young center in Yves Missi to be a high upside center or a trade piece, Dejounte Murray would be a true PG to this timberwolves team and provide shot creation, playmaking and defence, pairing well with ant Edwards in the backcourt.

Pelicans get a defensive anchor to be their rim protection and defensive rebounding they desperately need in order to be more competitive next year.

Rockets: Amen and DFS for Egor and MPJ, pretty simple if Amen's trade value really is as high as the reports say it is, MPJ and Egor should be feasible return.

Nets: Take the DFS contract, Ja who despite being washed still is Ja and if he could become even a fraction of what he used to be he's an amazing player, and the main highlight is trading up to the 3rd pick. Anyone in the top 4 is probably good enough to turn a franchise around and this is the Nets getting that guy.

Grizzlies: Trade Ja and the third pick for Amen, the 6th pick and 2 firsts (one of which will be a non lottery pick tho) in the future. Imo complete win for them.

Mavs get their pick back plus a PG to help develop cooper. Rockets finally get a scoring punch in the backcourt. No long term salary here for Dallas as DFS is basically expiring same with FVV. Only issue here is convincing FVV, but it shouldn’t be hard as he is still in Texas with a good team.

What do we think about this trade, sfw trade their 10th pick for early second round (34th pick) to kings

Sacramento can get Steinbach who is a rookie version of sabonis to match their timeline, while warriors give it all with curry

Warriors starting 5 - Steph Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Domantas Sabonis, and Kristaps Porziņģis.

Solves the spacing issues and rebounding for them and different from their traditional way with more bigs in the paint

BOS: Memes and jokes aside Brooks brings some of that edge and toughness the C’s lacked in this year’s playoffs. He doesn’t solve all their problems but it’s a start. Also doesn’t affect their quest to remain under the tax going into next summer.

PHX: Flip Brooks’ expiring deal into a cost-controlled asset in Hauser who brings playoff experience and shooting. Garza showed he can be a solid big off the bench during the regular season.

Warriors look to stay competitive while Kings get some draft capital

KD & Kyrie team up again, Rockets get good backcourt with Kyrie and Vanvleet, while keeping young guys and KD.

Wolves get - A PG that can fit well on this team. The contract isn’t good, but he’ll be a decent player and help table-set.

Raptors get - Off of an unreasonable contract and 30M dollars in expiring money that can be used to take a big swing next season. Plus, Wiggins isn’t a bum.

Heat get - A buy low on someone who has proven to be a good regular season guy. He should look better on a team with a good spacing 5 like Bam. Also, they don’t give away anything actually valuable.

Are there any draft capital needs that should be addressed here?