u/laxtloke

There is a lot of short-term noise and macroeconomic panic manipulating the day-to-day price of $SOFI, but if you zoom out and look at the underlying math, the long-term trajectory is undeniable.

​I put together this chart to visualize the revenue and stock price projections over the next five years. Even using conservative multiples, the fundamental growth engine makes a $39 price target by 2030 look like the absolute floor.

​📊 The Numbers Behind the Chart (2026–2030)

​Assuming a static 1.29B shares outstanding and a highly conservative 4.9x forward P/S multiple, here is the mathematical roadmap:

​2026: $4.80B Revenue ➡️ $18

​2027: $6.00B Revenue ➡️ $23

​2028: $7.50B Revenue ➡️ $29

​2029: $8.75B Revenue ➡️ $33

​2030: $10.25B Revenue ➡️ $39

​🔑 Why This Thesis is Bulletproof

​1. A 20% Revenue CAGR is Easily Achievable

Scaling from $4.80B in 2026 to $10.25B in 2030 requires a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 20.9%. Considering SoFi just posted a massive Q2 2026 beat with +40% YoY adjusted net revenue growth in a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, projecting a 20% average growth rate over the next half-decade is playing it extremely safe.

​2. Institutional Accumulation at an All-Time High

While retail gets shaken out by post-earnings algorithm dumps, smart money is loading the boat. Institutional ownership recently hit a new all-time high (approaching 70% of the float), with giants like Vanguard and BlackRock aggressively accumulating shares. They see the exact same 2030 math that we do.

​3. The 4.9x P/S Multiple is a Traditional Bank Valuation

The $39 target assumes Wall Street continues to value SoFi strictly as a legacy regional bank (4.9x P/S). But SoFi is rapidly transitioning into the "AWS of Fintech." With the Galileo/Technisys platform, enterprise Big Business Banking, and the rollout of the regulated SoFiUSD stablecoin, this is a high-margin financial infrastructure layer. If the market eventually re-rates SoFi as a true tech stock (10x+ P/S), that $39 target could easily double.

​4. The Ultimate Moat: Self-Funded Growth

With total deposits now blowing past $46B, SoFi’s bank charter allows it to fund its own massive lending pipeline while maintaining elite Net Interest Margins (~6%). They are printing their own cheap funding while maintaining 11 consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability.

​The disconnect between the current share price and the 2030 revenue reality is massive. Let the shorts pay their borrow fees while the fundamentals compound.

​What are your thoughts on the $10B+ revenue target for 2030? Are my P/S multiple estimates too conservative? 💎🙌

Just saw the announcement from the Intune Support Team, and I think this is going to be a game-changer for many of us. With the July (2607) release, we are finally getting Windows registry data directly into the Device inventory.

​Up until now, verifying if a specific registry key exists or checking its exact value across the tenant usually meant deploying custom PowerShell scripts or setting up Proactive Remediations just to gather the data. Now, we can natively confirm a device's actual configuration for troubleshooting, compliance validation, and security posture right from the console.

​This should heavily streamline how we validate that our configurations and security hardenings are actually applying as intended.

​What are your thoughts on this update? What is the first registry key or configuration you are going to track with this, and how much of a relief is this new feature going to bring to your day-to-day admin life?

So Microsoft just hit the brakes and delayed the SharePoint OTP retirement to late October (MC1243549), and honestly, I am not surprised at all. Testing this upcoming Entra B2B forced integration has been an absolute circus.

​Customer have a Conditional Access policy that enforces MFA for all guests. Testing how different external users experience the new flow before the legacy SPO OTP backdoor is closed has been completely mind-numbing. If you are getting wildly inconsistent results testing with different accounts, you are not crazy. It’s by design, and the design is a mess.

​Here is the nightmare hierarchy of how Entra B2B handles shared links now:

​Other M365 Tenants: Entra recognizes the domain, sends them to their home tenant login. No OTP code. If you have Cross-tenant access MFA trust enabled, their home MFA satisfies your CA policy. (Invisible in your tenant).

​Outlook / Hotmail (MSAs): Entra recognizes the MSA. It refuses to send an OTP code and demands their MSA password. They do MFA against Microsoft consumer cloud. (Invisible in your tenant).

​The "Shadow MSA" Trap (e.g., some Gmails): If a guest ever used their Gmail address to join a Teams meeting years ago, Microsoft created a shadow MSA for them. Entra remembers this! Instead of sending an OTP code, it prompts them for a password they forgot 4 years ago.

​"Virgin" Third-Party Emails (The ONLY ones getting OTP): If (and only if) the email is completely unknown to Microsoft and you don't have Google Federation on, Entra finally throws its hands up and sends the Entra Email OTP to their inbox.

​The MFA Kicker:

Because Entra Email OTP is only Factor 1, these "virgin" Gmail/third-party users are immediately slammed into our Conditional Access MFA wall. But since there is no trusted Identity Provider behind them, our tenant forces them to register Microsoft Authenticator directly into our directory (aka.ms/mfasetup).

​So, in the end: Half your guests do MFA at "home", the other half are forced to register Authenticator in your tenant, half get passwords, half get OTPs, and you absolutely cannot force Email OTP as the default for everyone to make the experience consistent because the identity hierarchy is hardcoded.

​I guess Microsoft realized shutting down the legacy OTP this month was going to break external sharing globally and melt down every helpdesk on the planet.

​Anyone else dealing with this hybrid rollout mess right now?

​Microsoft's transition from SPO OTP to Entra B2B is a chaotic hybrid mess. Guest login experience is wildly inconsistent based on their email's history with Microsoft. The delay to late October (MC1243549) is a blessing, but the architecture is still a joke.