u/mastertofu

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html

The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%, the highest since May 2023.

The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, putting the one-year pace at 3.8%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly rate was as forecast, but the annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus.

Prices that consumers pay for a wide range of goods and services increased at a faster-than-expected pace in April, raising further concerns about the inflationary impact on the U.S. economy.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.4% and 2.8% respectively, keeping inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.

The annual headline inflation rate was the highest since May 2023 and was up half a percentage point from March. Core inflation rose 0.2 percentage point annually.

Energy prices, which jumped 3.8%, again was a major contributor to the inflation surge, though food prices also climbed 0.5%. For energy, that put the 12-month gain at 17.9%, while food was up 3.2%. The gasoline index increased 28.4% annually.
Though energy and in particular gasoline has been much of the headline story, inflation pressures also came from a variety of other areas.

Shelter costs rose 0.6%, the tariff-sensitive apparel category increased 0.6% and airline fares accelerated 2.8%, putting the 12-month gain at 20.7%. Tariffs also seemed to hit other areas, with household furnishings and operations up 0.7%.

The report also contained bad news for workers, as real average hourly wages slipped 0.5% for the month and fell 0.3% annually.

Stock market futures were negative following the report while Treasury yields were higher. Traders also raised the odds for a Fed rate hike by the end of the year to about 30%, according to CME Group data.

“Inflation is the key drag on the U.S. economy now,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “This is hurting Americans. There is a real financial squeeze underway. For the first time in three years, inflation is eating up all wage gains. This is a setback for middle-class and lower-income households and they know it.”

The latest inflation news comes at a crossroads for the Fed, which has kept its benchmark interest rate steady all year amid misgivings among policymakers both on where the central bank should be heading and how it should communicate its intentions.
In late April, the Fed voted again to hold but saw four dissents, the highest since 1992. Fed Governor Stephen Miran again voted no in favor of a quarter percentage point cut, while three regional presidents objected to language that markets read as an indicator that the next move will be a cut.
At the same time, incoming Chair Kevin Warsh has advocated for lower rates, a position that will be difficult to square with the burst of inflation since the fighting in Iran began. Energy prices have surged, with oil running above $100 a barrel and gasoline averaging $4.50 a gallon nationally, according to AAA.

“Given that inflation is heading in the wrong direction and the labor market is holding up, it’s very unlikely that the Fed will be able to lower interest rates any time soon and it’s possible that we may start pricing in rate hikes for next year,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.

Correction: The Federal Reserve voted to stay on hold in April. An earlier version misstated the month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/08/consumer-sentiment-falls-to-fresh-record-low-in-may-as-surging-gas-prices-hit-outlook.html

Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

"Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump," survey director Joanne Hsu said.

Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

The school's closely watched Survey of Consumers posted a 48.2 preliminary reading, down 3.2% from April's prior record swoon and off 7.7% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 49.7.

Inflation fears were the primary driver of the continued trend lower in consumer attitudes.
The trend, which also saw the current conditions index tumble 9%, is "owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases," survey director Joanne Hsu said.

One-third of respondents mentioned gas prices as the biggest cause of concern. However, another one-third also cited tariffs, both connected to President Donald Trump, who launched an attack on Iran in late-February and announced an aggressive slate of tariffs in April 2025.

"Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump," Hsu said. "Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall."
There were a couple modest bright sides in the survey.
The expectations index came in at 48.5, a 0.8% increase from April and up 1.3% from a year ago. Also, the inflation outlook actually eased a bit though still at elevated levels, with the one-year projection at 4.5% and the five-year at 3.4%, respectively down 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point from prior readings.

Stock indexes held positive after the release.
The survey was released just after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job creation was stronger than expected in April, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 115,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%.

However, soaring energy prices continued to be a problem. A gallon of regular gas averaged $4.54 nationally on Friday, up nearly 40 cents from a month ago and higher by nearly $1.40 from the same time a year ago.

The Cubs are now the first team in the league to grab three straight walk-off wins over the same team since the Dodgers did so in 2019

The Chicago Cubs pulled off a rare feat Wednesday night at Wrigley Field, all thanks to Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Busch was walked in the 10th inning with the bases loaded to lift the Cubs to a 7-6 win over the Cincinnati Reds. That came after Crow-Armstrong hit a two-run home run in the ninth inning to tie the game and eventually force an extra inning.

Remarkably, that was the team’s third straight walk-off win over the Reds. The Cubs are now the first team in MLB to pull off such a feat since the Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed three consecutive walk-off wins over the Colorado Rockies during the 2019 campaign.

The Cubs kicked off the streak with a 5-4 win over the Reds on Monday night, when pinch-hitter Michael Conforto hit a solo homer in the ninth. Then, on Tuesday night, Busch hit a single in the 10th inning to bring in Dansby Swanson and grab a 3-2 win.

That led to Wednesday’s win, which marked the eighth in a row for the Cubs and their 14th consecutive win at Wrigley Field. While it wasn’t as exciting as the other two walk-offs, it still absolutely counts.

The Cubs now sit at 25-12 and first place in the NL Central. Their walk-off win streak is the franchise’s longest since 2009, when it also had three in a row against the White Sox and Cleveland.

Topline summary below, with subtitles directly from the article.

by Jonathan M. Winer

Each president since Eisenhower has prepared secret Emergency Authorities intended for use under extreme circumstances, such as a nuclear attack or domestic upheaval. These unlimited powers have never been invoked.

Secret Emergency Authorities and Their Potential Deployment

•Every administration since Eisenhower has maintained a set of secret, pre-drafted President Emergency Action Documents (PEADs) for use in crises involving foreign attack or large-scale domestic upheaval
•These are not policy proposals, they are directives, written in advance, that can be signed and implemented immediately across the federal government
•Their contents remain classified and were developed for extreme scenarios, such as a catastrophic attack threatening the government’s ability to function
•To date, no President has ever invoked them; no emergency has been deemed dire enough
•But they provide a standing mechanism that could be activated to override legal constraints, detain individuals, and direct federal agencies to act without any prior judicial review​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The PEADS Scenario in Response to a Republican Defeat in 2026

•If Democrats win the House or Senate in 2026, Trump could declare results rigged, targeting specific counties, cities, or states and citing fraud, illegal ballots, or foreign interference
•Compliant federal authorities would then investigate those results before certifying them, seizing ballots and voting records in contested jurisdictions
•Trump could pressure the Speaker of the House to organize the chamber as if Republicans still hold the majority, and push the Senate to ignore results in jurisdictions still under federal review
•This would almost certainly trigger mass protests, with marches, strikes, and shutdowns spreading nationally as labor organizations, civic groups, and political networks all mobilize
•Trump could then label protesters the “enemy within” and direct the Attorney General to treat coordinated demonstrations as organized political violence
•The FBI and Joint Terrorism Task Forces could be instructed to identify organizers, map funding sources, and investigate alleged foreign connections
•The IRS could be directed to scrutinize nonprofit organizations supporting the protests
•Arrests would follow, targeting not just those involved in violence but organizers identified through communications and financial records
•Prosecutors would pursue conspiracy charges based on coordinated activity, not actual acts of violence
•If protests continued and major cities saw sustained disruption, Trump could declare a national emergency
•That declaration would be the trigger for invoking the PEADs​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

The Power of Presidential Emergency Action Documents

Trump has already described his authority as essentially boundless, pointing to “very strong emergency powers” and claiming “the right to do a lot of things that people don’t even know about”
•His governing assumption is that his authority as president is not subject to constraint by other institutions, rules, or regulations, including by the Constitution itself
•Declassified materials from earlier periods show PEADs have included authority to detain individuals, restrict movement, seize property, and take control of communications systems
•Once signed, federal agencies shift immediately from ordinary legal processes to execution of emergency orders, with no prior judicial review
•The largest existing detention infrastructure is operated by DHS, particularly ICE, which maintains a large paramilitary force and a nationwide network of facilities
•Investigative reporting identified more than 170 cases in 2025 where U.S. citizens were unlawfully detained by federal immigration agents, sometimes for days without access to counsel
•The DOJ would align prosecutions with PEAD directives, using the same framework applied in January 6 cases, where hundreds were charged with obstructing the certification of the electoral count
•The President could direct control over internet service providers, social media platforms, and communications infrastructure, compelling cooperation or threatening penalties for noncompliance
•Federal agencies could freeze bank accounts, restrict access to payment systems, and pressure large employers and logistics firms into compliance
• All of this could happen before courts rule on its legality
•A real or attributed attack by Iran could be folded into the election fraud narrative, collapsing the distinction between foreign threat and domestic dissent
•The sequence does not depend on the accuracy of his claims. It depends on his authority to act and his willingness to use it​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Countering the Threat

•Governors can pre-certify results, secure ballots, and deploy the National Guard to protect election infrastructure
•Secretaries of state can harden audit procedures and publish results rapidly to preempt fraud claims
•State AGs can have lawsuits drafted and ready to file before any crisis begins

Community-Based Planning

•Civil society groups can build real-time documentation networks
•Minnesota’s community networks tracking ICE operations are cited as a working model

Succession Planning

•Key figures such as officials, attorneys general, and organizers could be early targets
•Organizations should decentralize leadership and distribute authority now, before a crisis hits​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

I’ve included the topline points of this essay, since it’s very long. More than welcome to read it in full in the gift article link. It’s a good outline of the steps this administration will take to supersede the midterms.

By Thomas B. Edsall
Thomas B. Edsall has been a contributor to the Times Opinion section since 2011. His essays on strategic and demographic trends in American politics appear every Tuesday. He previously covered politics for The Washington Post.

5/5/26

Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, you can’t say that the president hasn’t warned us, over and over, that he will do all he can to prevent the congressional contests from turning into a humiliating Republican rout.

…

Trump’s comment fell right in line with his repeated claims of unlimited, unchecked power.
March 2020: “I have the right to do a lot of things that people don’t even know about.”
August 2025: “I have the right to do anything I want to do. I’m the president of the United States of America.”
January 2026: In an interview with The New York Times, Trump was asked: “Do you see any checks on your power on the world stage? Is there anything that could stop you if you wanted to?” Trump replied: “Yeah, there is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me, and that’s very good.”

…

Not one to keep a secret, Trump made what he would like to do very clear during a Feb. 3 bill signing ceremony at the White House:
Look at the facts that are coming out. Rigged, crooked elections. Take a look at Detroit. Take a look at Pennsylvania. Take a look at Philadelphia. You go take a look at Atlanta. Look at some of the places that … horrible corruption on elections, and the federal government should not allow that.
The federal government should get involved.
The states, Trump claimed, “are agents of the federal government to count the votes. If they can’t count the votes legally and honestly, then somebody else should take over.”

There are other factors at work pointing to an attempt by Trump to stave off defeat. At the top of the list: Trump’s National Security Presidential Memorandum 7, issued Sept. 25 last year.
The memorandum effectively grants the Department of Justice, the Treasury, the I.R.S. and other federal agencies a license to label left-wing groups as domestic terrorist organizations and directs the Department of Justice to prosecute them “to the maximum extent permissible by law.”

…

The threat posed by Trump has rattled experts at the Brennan Center and Keep Our Republic, along with scholars who study Trump’s real and claimed powers.

Two of the foremost students of these powers are Joel McCleary, a founder of Keep Our Republic, and Elizabeth Goitein, senior director of the liberty and national security program at the Brennan Center. Some, but not all, of their attention has been focused on the secretive creation of presidential emergency action documents, which have come to be known as “PEADs.”

McCleary described his findings and his concerns in a series of emails, many including reports he has written. In an April 23 report, “Continuity of Government, Presidential Emergency Action Documents and the Evolution of Executive Emergency Powers,” McCleary wrote that the president “possesses emergency powers that are virtually unknown to the public, to most members of Congress and to much of the federal judiciary. These powers, codified in classified presidential emergency action documents,” allow
a single individual to suspend fundamental constitutional rights, detain civilians, seize property, impose martial law and censor communications. They require only a presidential signature. No prior congressional approval is needed. No court reviews them before activation. No statutory mechanism exists for Congress to restrict or terminate these powers once invoked.

While PEADs were first created in the 1950s during the Eisenhower presidency to address the potential of nuclear war to create chaos, there is, McCleary wrote, “no statutory, constitutional or procedural limit on the number of PEADs a president may create, the subjects they may address or the scope of authority they may claim.”

The Brennan Center has published an article describing the history and potential use of PEADs.

…

While the secretiveness of PEADs prompts suspicion among those wary of the Trump administration, the National Security Presidential Memorandum 7 I mentioned earlier is raising specific fears.

As McCleary put it:

NSPM-7 is something different again. It is a national security presidential memorandum, not an executive order, which would require Federal Register publication. Presidential memoranda have the same legal force as executive orders but less transparency.

NSPM-7 cites no statute and no constitutional provision. It simply directs the attorney general and other federal officials to do things, compile a secret list, investigate organizations, designate domestic terrorist groups, under the president’s claimed authority to direct the executive branch. There is no statutory category of “domestic terrorist organization” in federal law. Congress didn’t create this designation power; the president simply asserted it. The differences in constraint are where it gets dangerous.

For the NSPM-7 memorandum, McCleary argued,
the constraint picture is arguably the worst of all three, because it operates in plain sight but outside any legal framework. Unlike a national emergency declaration, it doesn’t activate defined statutory powers, it asserts authority that no statute grants. Unlike PEADs, it isn’t waiting for a catastrophic trigger, it’s already operational.

The memorandum, in McCleary’s view,
has the operational immediacy that PEADs lack (it’s running now, not waiting for a crisis) and the legal unaccountability that national emergencies lack (no statutory framework, no public declaration, no termination mechanism).

The three together form a layered system: NSPM-7 operates day-to-day, building the infrastructure and the target lists. National emergency declarations provide the escalation mechanism, broadening executive power under statutory cover. And PEADs sit at the top of the pyramid, ready for the moment when the constitutional order itself is suspended. Each layer normalizes the next.

In an April 29 essay in The Washington Spectator, “Emergency Planning: The President Is Preparing to Challenge 2026 Midterms. The Country Can Still Act to Protect Them,” Jonathan Winer, a former U.S. special envoy for Libya and a deputy assistant secretary of state for international law enforcement during the Clinton presidency, described the following hypothetical sequence of events.

“The scenario would likely begin by Trump declaring that the election results were rigged, as he has in the past,” Winer wrote, and then compliant federal authorities would “require investigation of those results before they were finalized.”

The president could “then call on congressional leadership to proceed as if the announced results are invalid, urging the speaker of the House to organize the chamber on the basis of a Republican majority, and encouraging similar action in the Senate, urging them to ignore any jurisdictions in which the federal government was still undertaking its review.”

Protests of Trump’s actions would provide him with fresh opportunities to exercise autocratic power. Trump would then direct the attorney general to treat coordinated demonstrations as organized political violence. He could instruct the F.B.I. and Joint Terrorism Task Force to identify organizers, map funding sources and examine any connections, real or alleged, to foreign actors.

Federal agents would then make arrests. They would arrest individuals at protests, whether or not violence has occurred.

In order to conduct mass arrests, Winer pointed out, “the largest existing detention infrastructure is operated by the Department of Homeland Security, particularly Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which maintains a large paramilitary force and a nationwide network of facilities.”

At the same time, Winer noted, the president could take over communication systems, including “internet service providers, social media platforms and communications infrastructure”; seize property; and freeze bank accounts.

…

In other words, time would be on Trump’s side, with the likelihood that Congress and the courts would be slow to react, and both might well passively accede to Trump’s effective cancellation of an election.

McCleary elaborated on Winer’s suggestion that the Department of Homeland Security’s detention facilities could be used for jailing protesters: “The FY2025 budget appropriated $45 billion for immigration enforcement, including $38.3 billion for ICE facility construction — a 265 percent increase over the previous fiscal year.”

The money, McCleary argued, far exceeds the needs of the department, raising the question of “whether this scale is proportionate to its stated purpose.” McCleary contended that this over-the-top budgeting means either that the administration plans extrajudicial removal without hearings, which requires emergency authority to bypass due process protections; or the infrastructure is being built for a purpose or scale beyond what immigration enforcement alone would justify.

McCleary argued that his analysis is more substantial that a conspiracy theory:
We do not allege secret coordination. We observe public convergence. Each instrument was enacted openly. Their combined effect, mass detention capacity plus terrorism designation of political opposition plus criminal prosecution of association, has no precedent in American law outside wartime.

What we are seeing now, Mayer concluded, “is not normal, is utterly corrosive to principles of constitutional and democratic governance and is extremely dangerous.”

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/high-housing-costs-are-pushing-foreclosures-to-a-six-year-high-266c56c0

Foreclosure filings have surged to the highest level since early 2020, fueled by rising insurance costs, property taxes and the end of COVID-era relief programs, The Wall Street Journal reports. Nearly 119,000 properties faced foreclosure in the first quarter, a 26% year-over-year increase.

Homeowners are experiencing "payment shocks" from taxes, insurance and job struggles, says Marina Walsh, an economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. The surge comes amid other financial pressures, including rising credit card delinquency rates and the return of student loan payments.

A new treatment facility is opening on Chicago’s North Side, addressing addiction and what health officials say is a growing drug epidemic impacting the LGBTQ+ community.

No Matter What Recovery held an open house for its new treatment facility near the corner of Halsted and Belmont this weekend, and Bryce Beliveau was among those who joined the celebration.

“Bringing it to the Midwest, I think it’s so important because had I known that, had this been here when I was struggling down in southern Illinois,” he said. “I think I would have found care so much easier and so much quicker.”

The 27-year-old battled a crystal meth addiction and was in and out of treatment over the years.

He told NBC Chicago he found recovery through a specialized program with No Matter What Recovery about four years ago in Los Angeles.

“It was the first time I found a true LGBTQ+ affirming environment and for me, it completely changed my entire life,” he said. “I was thrust in this environment where all of my peers looked like me, talked like me, had a similar story and were all trying to heal.”

He’s now helping others with their journey to sobriety.

“I get to be the person that says 'I hear you, I understand and I’ve lived this experience,'” he said. “Let me help you.”

The outpatient facility in Chicago is focused on treating substance use, mental health, and sexualized drug use.

“With the LGBTQ community and having chemsex be such a big issue, we want to make sure they are coming to treatment feeling comfortable, feeling like they can be their open and true self in an environment that’s affirming and accepting and they can get some long term care,” said Jessica Steinman, NMWR Chief Clinical Officer.

She said the care includes individual or group therapy sessions and other programs to support the mind, body, and soul.

“You’ll see in the LGBTQ community that addiction in general is going to happen, it’s twice as likely to happen for people, due to all the different trauma and things that can happen for the people in the queer community,” she said. “So we’re really glad we’re able to address it here.”

No Matter What Recovery opens on Monday.

Here's the link to NWR Chicago: https://nomatterwhatrecovery.com/locations/chicago/

BBC: Oil price rises above $120 after reports of 'extended' Iran blockade

Oil prices have soared following reports that the US is preparing for an "extended" blockade of Iran.

The global benchmark oil price, Brent crude, rose above $120 (£89) a barrel on Wednesday, briefly hitting $122, its highest price since 2022.

The BBC understands that energy executives including Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth met US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday to discuss how to limit the fallout from the conflict on American consumers.

Oil traders appear to have taken the meeting as a sign the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will continue for a long time.

The executives discussed topics including domestic energy production, progress in Venezuela, oil futures, natural gas, and shipping, according to a White House official.

They described the meeting as being part of the President's regular meetings with energy executives to discuss their industry.

The meeting follows separate reports from the Wall Street Journal that US President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare to extend the ongoing blockade of Iran's ports, in an effort to squeeze the country's economy.

Iran has said it will continue to disrupt traffic travelling through the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US blockade.

....

Despite the fluctuations of recent weeks, the price of oil remains much higher than the pre-conflict price of a barrel.

The price of Brent crude dropped to $90 a barrel on 17 April, after a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced. The US said it would pause attacks on Iran on 8 April. It remains much higher than the pre-conflict price of a barrel.

However, the oil benchmark has been rising steadily over the last 12 days, as the US continued its blockade.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said that the impact of the war so far in the UK has been largely limited to higher petrol and diesel prices, but "every day that passes without a resumption of supply sees the risk of physical shortages and steeper price rises on a range of goods increasing".

....

The World Bank on Tuesday forecast energy prices would surge by 24% in 2026 to their highest level since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, if the most acute disruptions caused by the Iran war end in May.