u/mastertofu

Looks like Wirth's statement is contradicting WH messaging on oil post-midterms, which is significant. Link and article below:

https://www.thestreet.com/economy/chevron-ceo-sends-a-strong-message-on-oil-price-and-the-economy

Article:

Americans have paid about $97 billion more for fuel since the Iran war started in late February, roughly $740 extra per household, according to CNN. President Trump says prices will come down after the midterms. The CEO of Chevron just said publicly he does not see how that happens quickly.

Mike Wirth, Chevron’s chairman and chief executive, spoke at a University of Texas at Austin energy conference on September 11. He told the audience that the mechanisms that helped absorb the oil supply shock earlier in the conflict have largely been used up, and that prices are more likely to rise than fall over the next few months.

When the U.S.-Iran conflict began, the oil market had several ways to handle the disruption. Countries could release crude from strategic reserves. Commercial inventories could be drawn down. The U.S. eased restrictions on sanctioned crude stored on vessels at sea. Those measures helped limit the initial price spike.

“Those have largely now played out,” Wirth said. The energy system no longer has the buffers it had when the war began.

The loss of flexibility became more acute after attacks knocked out a major Saudi crude pipeline that had been bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. That single disruption put an estimated 2.5 million barrels of oil per day in limbo, tightening a market that was already running short on supply.

“It’s harder to envision a scenario where prices soften and quickly,” Wirth added. “I think the risks remain to the upside over the next few months.”

Wirth also said the Trump administration had discussed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and that Chevron had since seen fewer disruptions to its operations at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, one of the company’s largest producing assets.

The average U.S. diesel price crossed $6 per gallon for the first time on September 10, as TheStreet reported. The Iran war squeezed supplies from the Middle East. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries took out more. By the time Wirth spoke on September 11, the national retail diesel price had hit a record $6.23 a gallon.

Gasoline prices came back up to about $4.32 a gallon. They had slipped below $4 for a stretch during the summer when oil pulled back from its March 2026 peak near $120 a barrel. That pullback is now over. Crude has been moving higher for weeks as attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure picked back up.

Brent crude for November 2026 delivery was trading near $105 a barrel around the time of the conference. West Texas Intermediate crude was just above $100. Before the Iran war started in late February, Brent was around $70. It is now up about 50%.

China has also been adding demand pressure. Chinese buyers have returned to the international market after running down domestic stockpiles for months. China’s return to the international oil market has made it harder for refiners in other countries to satisfy world demand.

Trump said on September 9 that oil prices would come down “right after the election,” according to ABC News. He tied the timeline to the November midterms and the prospect of ending the Iran war.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has called the latest supply disruption “temporary” and pointed to plans to expand Venezuelan output and U.S. refining capacity as near-term offsets, according to Seeking Alpha.

Diesel is the fuel that moves the American economy. Trucking, farming, construction and freight transportation all run on it. When diesel costs more, the price of moving goods rises, and businesses tend to pass that cost along.

Gasoline affects household budgets more directly. At $4.32 a gallon, consumers are spending more at the pump and have less left for everything else. That spending squeeze is one reason the $97 billion extra cost figure translates to a real reduction in household purchasing power.

The Federal Reserve is in a hard spot. Rate hikes slow spending. They do not add oil to the market. Diesel costs flow through the whole economy. Truckers charge more. Distributors charge more. Grocery bills go up. The Fed has to decide whether to keep tightening into that pressure or watch inflation settle higher. Wirth did not predict how this resolves. He said the tools that previously limited the damage are exhausted.

For investors, higher crude prices lift Chevron’s upstream revenue and free cash flow in the near term. But airlines, trucking companies, retailers and manufacturers face the opposite pressure. The broader economic question, which Wirth left open, is whether the market has enough spare capacity to absorb another disruption before inventories are rebuilt.

The administration has already deployed several tools to try to bring prices down. It tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve heavily, with reserves falling below 300 million barrels by early August, down more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026. It also eased restrictions on sanctioned crude to increase available supply.

Wirth’s remarks point in a different direction. He did not predict when or how prices would stabilize. He said the cushions that previously worked are gone, and that the risks sit to the upside. That is not the same as saying prices cannot fall. It is saying the forces needed to make them fall are harder to identify right now than they were six months ago.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/ubs-ceo-sergio-ermotti-investor-complacency-piling-risks-.html

Key points:

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said financial markets have grown complacent despite mounting geopolitical and economic risks.

Wealthy investors are diversifying their portfolios, but UBS sees no wholesale retreat from U.S. assets or the dollar.

Ermotti expects inflation to keep interest rates higher for the foreseeable future as major central banks tighten policy.

Article:

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti on Thursday warned that investors have grown complacent over the past few years, even as geopolitical and economic risks have mounted.

“There has been a level of complacency in financial markets in the last few years,” Ermotti told CNBC’s Christine Tan, adding that given the environment one would have expected considerably higher volatility.

While markets have experienced occasional bouts of turbulence, strong investment in artificial intelligence, data centers and other new technologies has helped support economic growth and financial markets, he said.

The UBS top boss cautioned that investors face an increasingly complicated environment given multiple headwinds. “New problems or new issues are emerging without any of the old ones being addressed or being closed.”

Markets face a mix of Iran and Ukraine war-driven energy and shipping risks, add to that the U.S.-China rivalry that has strained supply chains, while rising borrowing costs and stubborn inflation have created headwinds for economic growth.

That uncertainty is prompting some of the world’s wealthiest investors to spread their bets more widely rather than make large directional calls, according to Ermotti. 

Hedging against uncertainty

“It’s quite difficult in this environment and not really advisable to have too many strong convictions,” Ermotti said.

UBS clients have been diversifying across sectors and geographies in recent quarters, while continuing to invest in AI and technology, he said.

Still, the overall asset allocation of UBS clients hasn’t changed materially over the past year, nor does the push for diversification amount to a wholesale retreat from U.S. assets.

Ermotti said UBS saw some money move into global emerging markets about a year ago, but characterized those flows as investors putting spare cash to work rather than actively reducing existing U.S. or dollar positions.

“It was more how excess cash was deployed rather than people back trading from the U.S. or from the dollar, so I think that narrative has abated,” he said, adding that the dollar continues to be “a reference currency.”

Higher-for-longer rates

Higher interest rates are also encouraging investors to take a more balanced approach to their portfolios, Ermotti said, as persistent inflation keeps pressure on central banks.

Inflation has remained sticky and above central-bank targets over the past year, making further policy tightening unsurprising, according to the UBS CEO. He expects major central banks including the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan to raise rates in the coming months.

“The ECB may start hike process. The Fed will follow. We do expect a couple of hikes in the next few months,” Ermotti said.

That means investors shouldn’t expect borrowing costs to quickly return to the lower levels that prevailed before the latest inflationary pressures.
“Inflationary pressure is still there, and it’s not abating, and therefore, I think it’s reasonable to expect higher rates for the foreseeable future,” Ermotti said.

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/short-sighted-stock-market-can-no-longer-brush-off-war-investors-say.html

Key points:

U.S. equities fell on Thursday after Brent Crude prices broke above $100 per barrel once again.

The rise in oil prices come after the U.S. conducted strikes against Iran for a 12th consecutive night, and reports that a tanker was attacked off the coast of Saudi Arabia.

While U.S. stocks initially didn’t react much to the reignited conflict while oil prices rose and Treasury yields marched higher, investors on Thursday began to rethink their potential short-sighted outlook.

Link: https://map.clarity.io/open-air-chicago

Air Now is great, but the Chicago Dept of Public Health started a project in summer 2025 where they installed local air sensors to get readings at a neighborhood level:

https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/cdph/supp\_info/Environment/open-air-chicago.html

I-94 northbound near Dolton heading into Chicago. Can people not be civil when there’s traffic? A little bit of inconvenience and drivers start using the shoulder lane to try and cut others. You’re literally making the situation worse for everyone.

Pulled from the CTA’s insta

$5 on the Ventra website: https://www.ventrachicago.com/mobile/purchase/

when you access the Ventra mobile link, click “view full site” on the bottom left hand corner to be able to log into your account and purchase!

$5 on the Ventra website: https://www.ventrachicago.com/mobile/purchase/

when you access the Ventra mobile link, click “view full site” on the bottom left hand corner to be able to log into your account and purchase!